First of all, The U.K. is insolvent(BTW i don't mean this), but it's down 1% then moved to 2%.
Damn the Dollar sterling is like 1.3... that sucker was 2.2 a year ago.
Euro hitting new recent lows.
London's quest to become the financial capitol of the world..... Be careful what you ask for, you may surely get it. I also have a small giggle about this ex-girlfriend who got her MBA and moved to London thinking the jobs would be better.
I know it's counter to my general Thesis, to be surprised that we don't trade on the news.... Just the notion that somehow Earnings being shitty is a surprise. It's like saying the market doesn't anticipate a damn thing..... which of course it doesn't. Since these are just worthless little pieces of paper, which are showing their fundamental value.
I was reflecting on the John Thane thing, and Juxtaposing that against all the people out there who Just want to Work hard, Produced goods and services, mow their lawns, Raise their kids, and hope to retire. When you wonder what is wrong with the world... that is it. People who work hard getting skewed while these economic freeloaders, who don't actually add to the GDP, Just bank Millions at everyone else's' expense.
I haven't even started on how the Vix, though we have seen higher.... shows potential for daily 7% moves. if you put it in relative perspective... it's almost never been higher.
Tony has been doing some nice work on rotations.
Friday, January 23, 2009
Some morning rants
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Technicians would say that the market has indeed anticipated the bad earnings with their interpretation of the graphs, with Brian Shannon saying (ad nauseum) "this is a day trading environment", why T.LO told us to go to cash in September, etc.
The market and TA have been telling us, what Mamis calls the message of the market. We don't necessarily know "why" the market keeps going down... we will only know "why" after the fact. We can only know the "what" and "the what" is that financials are dead. D-E-A-D. Period.
We can conjecture all day about the "why"... and it's fun to do: 25% of banks are insolvent and will be gone in 6 months, BAC and Citi will be nationalized, Obama is a Communist and the market is factoring it in, etc... but the reality is that we cannot know the why until after the fact.
Damn... Cheer up....
you make me want to buy...
Sure, anticipated it 3 months ago. But why are we surprised now...
and what were we anticipating in Jan.
How about bankers are communists... Socialisum for them, and lassez-faire for all.
I'll have you know, I had a nice bunker in the works in July. and it was T-lo who had me optimistic, just to drop the hammer in september.
How come I knew you'd read that comment as a contrarian indicator?
And I tend to agree with you. The Jan Effect is/was an aberration, a bear market rally, a counter-trend rally...
They're like Kappa Kappa Gamma girls: it's okay to play with 'em, just don't marry 'em.
Just playing, and to comment about gold, it's just a red light on the day.
I fade myself as much as you.
what I was getting at about anticipation, was just about microsoft GE etc.... it just doesnt' seem to be anticipated
F#@K Cramer, I covered my V short. Damn I hate that stock.
Some of the banks are.... FULL ON!!!
and I told you to stay away from V
I havn't looked at it..
but RIG!!!!
I pulled off a (tiny) loss on V
Good call on banks... missed that one.
still much caution..
if you checked out brian, we are setting up that move he was talking about.
Just opened a short on VLY.
(God, I know I just jinxed it.)
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