Financial history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes. You can't be stupid enough to trade off anything I say.... I'm lucky they let me out of the straight-jacket long enough to trade.

J. P. Morgan

"Sell down to your sleeping point"

Friday, January 23, 2009

This is what I have!

Remember.... Fridays are my bigest mistake days... as fatigued as I am... I'm lucky I know which way is up....

Let me just say MY MODEL SAYS THIS IS THE HIGHER LOW on the monthly. Sentiment says the "banks have no bottom" sentiment change should give us the turn, as it eases... And yet Europe and Asia are in Crisis, and they are looking for a very bearish move in those markets, Some kind of panic low.... I havn't charted them, but one would think they would get it in the next 2 weeks.
But... As I was Charting yesterday and asking.... which pattern do we have... I felt we had a pendant because of the nasty sell off on Thursday by the close. This morning the Pennant was violated... We did get a bounce and it was a ..... Significant rejection of the low. But... the pattern was broken and we now have what looks like a DESCENDING TRIANGLE.....
And yet the sell off at the close was much weaker.

The other part of this sentiment cycle... could be a grinding despair stage and my feel is that this is what we have.... I think I can back that up with the idea that for the most part... what are left are day traders.... this grinding action could be just what shakes most people out of the market and gives us this despair stage.......

Let me just say ... I'm very torn about the direction of the market.

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