Yep... it's that time again.
This would have been much easier if it were summer when I started this project....
*dig dig dig*
I was watching Fast money...
Divergences... I like to point them out. I pointed that the move in the Dollar was bearish for materials. There was a panic trade in gold... bla bla bla on gold.
But the interesting divergence is the sentiment on CNBC vs CNN. There is a sense that the energy in the country has changed... and the market in an Unanticipated way, isn't seeing it.
what i like to say... Either the people are wrong... or the market.... One of them is incorrect.
but of course... not like materials stocks anticipated the move in the dollar.
The market seems to be saying that the financials will be Nationalized.... and is anticipating the massive dislocation in the market when this happens... As the banks in this country are run as well as Fanny and Freddy.
Seems to me that this just Can't happen the way the market thinks it will. not to start a rumor, but That Citigroup is splitting into 2 parts... Is not to sell one of them.... but could be to Nationalize and turn one of them into the bad bank..... Just saying.
I swear to god.... the Government has no choice but to buy up bad loans....
I've always hoped that they would just Zombie the bad banks, and let the other ones work.
Of course Paulson aparently did a good job of turning the good banks into bad banks by making them swallow the bad ones.
Financial history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes. You can't be stupid enough to trade off anything I say.... I'm lucky they let me out of the straight-jacket long enough to trade.
J. P. Morgan
Tuesday, January 20, 2009
Building the bunker
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