So ignore any but the white lines... you have 2 wedges and a flag.... no that is not a new pattern... that is 3 different patterns..
One of them resolves on say.. tuesday,(the tighter one) It though doesn't seem clean.
The second one, So far so good.... but also resolves sometime next thursday/friday. and doesn't seem impossible.. but bad news is it only moves to about 90 on the upside.
1 wedge looks to resolve tuesday... or so...(let us also remember that once you have a breakout beyond the wedge, it can break out and up..
Ok... lets talk about friday..... In blue... that is a NICE bear flag, target 79.5. Also...
I was talking about a Wedge or any trend line... in red was that nice wedge I found, it's a perfect example of a wedge... and that "when a trend line breaks, it's what it does After that is important, normaly it will "Play with" the trend line. After breaking out of the wedge it moved up up like it was supposed to and resolved perfectly.... Again, I trade what some people call "Live Trendline support resistance, But What happens is that trends are broken all the time.. it's what it does after that is important.... and it's always something "to note". and move your stops.. and get defensive.
Saturday, January 24, 2009
2 wedges and a flag
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2 comments:
So your trendline resistance was the same as the horizontal resistance: 84. And it got hit and the price trailed off thereafter.
I guess I'm not seeing the price target of 79.5 with a bear flag. Where did you get the price target?
Flags and Pennants have targets of; measure the Highest and lowest point. and the Target is measured from the break out.
I think you can also come up with price targets based on the individual swings too IE lesser targets. Maybe I'll post that later.
I get a little confused about the target and if it's "Within the move or within the flag, and where the flag starts.
I'm still in neutral.. but like that call.. and for us to resolve at that 730spx target. in the next couple weeks. We also don't have enough bears to have a bottom.
T-lo on Thursday... Seems like she was suggesting that the market needed to swing back to 870. And yet, that maybe it was a false breakout.
It could still do that. Though I'm not sure if it fit in her "see the money, or this is a goner".. ('TO GO', being a Velocity call, and not a directional call). Then I also wonder if the ambiguity was subliminal, or poor grammar.
One thing I noticed was that we need to sucker some buyers in at higher levels, so that we can then Scare them out. In a way that was the problem with Friday, People long at 800-820, who were "positive for most of wed, and thursday, are hard to scare out at 800." it's the people that purchased the "reversal/breakout" on friday. Those are the people who we can now Scare out.. It was also easy to scare shorts who were short at 800, and there are few at 850. add the "get out of the market on friday thing" and you have a thesis.
WFC for example, Chanced to buy at 14, they were strong holders, and the move to 15 on friday "not scary".. The people to scare are people buying at 15.30-16.. They can be scared out and drive us back to 14.... which then could panic the 14 holders and drive us lower.... Also scarring the strong holders at 17 who haven't bailed.
Just a generic call... We were so oversold to the 800 level, there just wasn't any momentum left... we had to do some bouncing before legging down.
Or my model is right, we will get a bounce, and I'll be suicidal at all the stock I puked up at the bottom.
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