Well we have my Correction... It's official... 40+pts...
I want to talk about my model... weeks ago I mentioned that "the bottom" is when all models break down. and The low we had certainly broke my model. But the point I want to make is that... by my model Today or Tomorrow would be an inflection point... and yet.. it seems like Wed/thrursday would be an inflection point And by my model it could suggest that we sell for the next expiration period.... Scary... but like I said it was already broken... and there is a chance that we just have a "Low" today or mondy. but closing red won't get sideline money going... But what it will do is get the Bears "all in" again.... Yesterday they were nervous... this will get them frothing... One would like to see them get burned.
Options expiration "Pinning" Yep WFC went beyond my 14.40... and is Pinning 14 right now... It will be interesting to see if it "pins" here or maybe 15 at the close 16 would be possible too... but so would 13... But the spy is working on 76... *shrug*
Friday, March 20, 2009
Pinning
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So, is this "real" selling or more short -selling? That's a rhetorical question. My hunch is that it's speculative short- sellers since the exhaustion phase of investors leaving the market was a couple weeks ago. Are there any "true" sellers left?
Or maybe I'm just a naive pollyanna.
Sure, volume is low (is that normal for expiry day?)
But, SPY looks to be falling to the 38% line, 75.5. Sure it's low volume, but 75.5 would be 6.5% from high of 81. Almost ready to put in T.Lo's hedges...
...that didn't take long.
hmmm... Ask and answer at all times
Who are the shorts who are the longs
who are the longs getting out who are the longs going short.... ETC
Nobody went long from 666-730.. that was all short covering... but that means there are no longs to scare out in that range..
So... If we use Upside trader as our Marginal buyer... he purchased right on the top... and was just scared out... and is now short....
We don't have "morons" in the market anymore they are probably dead, blown out trading the Faz.
what I'm getting at is that... finaly this is starting to "Feel" good for a rebound.
What you are seeing is lower volume relative to yesterday, and the day before.
and Again... volume can indicate a Near term Top.
Today seems more like normal volume relative to monday-wed.
and we will see how the "options roll over " effects things in the last hour.
Thanks, that makes sense. Just think of the Socratic method.
You bring up Upside: I am impressed by his ability to trade FAZ and some of the shorts, but when the market was rallying he was very quiet and made very few trades. It just seemed odd to me, but I respect that he has a negative view of the market and does not feel comfortable going long. God knows, it probably served him well these past few months.
one needed to realize that Teresa was using standard Entry exit points in "the market"
But... Game theory.. you have to know "Everybody is doing it"
So when they all jump in... there is a pull back.. Fat man in a pool causes waves.
Use that 76.50 resistance on a 5 or 15 minute close for your "Hedge"
I assumed T.Lo meant closing prices for the hedges, which would be a close of 73.30 to put on hedges. Did I get that wrong?
BTW, TK is crawling back into his cave with his bull statue. He thinks we are going back to test the lows again.
Its one thing to Trade the trend...
it's another to find the reversals..
I mean... how hard was it to trade Faz.
Nobody saw that reversal. I got in 4 Flame wars over it...
Upside was talking about a crash...
but that is just emotional memory from September..
I could be wrong... the Hedge depends on your entry 9.1% or whatever from "YOUR" entry.
I mean... what does a good hedge do... Makes it hard to both win and lose... No reason to not be Neutral... but 76.5... is the intraday point you want to play.. the november lows are 75.
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