Is the Hobgoblin of little minds.
-Emmerson
I saw somebody call for a crash a few days ago... the idea that we would have a "Double crash"
Well... it's funny, and more likely that the mind is creating patterns... What happened last time... will happen this time... It's very normal human behavior...
Friday, March 20, 2009
Foolish Consistancy
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9 comments:
I like the Emerson quote...
Statisticians call it recency bias.
Economists call it 1931.
lol.
Just give us a year or 2. and I could buy it.
I'm getting a tough read off of T-Lo...
2 days ago she was talking about a couple days pull back.
we hit the 50 and get a couple days pull back.(which we needed)
and it's lord of the flies today.
Just venting about this...
she is human..
but if one thinks she bought the top, then fading the "Armageddon emotion"
also remember that near the low, she posted that thing about insurance companies.
And not to.... Like the Meme I keep bringing up...
the bad downturns in the economy are when it's wallstreet... cause... they just don't get it "When it's them"... It's fun and games to fade bubbles when it's other people... but when your on the inside its much harder.
the dollar lost it's downward emotion, Is the Meme over... or is it coming.
But then just like me... sometimes you arn't sure how much is my opinion and how much is sentiment.
OK, so here it is another Friday, this time at the end of a "winning" week, but we are still flirting with the November lows and assuming that the most recent shitstorm is just short-sellers wreaking havoc when the reality is that nobody is buying into this Ponzi scheme any more.
You want some sentiment? I'll give you some sentiment: I'm pretty much done. The only thing that has worked for months is yellow and white metal that has no inherent value or dividend and is mined at to the detriment of helpless indigenous people throughout the world.
I hate go all Hobbes and Malthus here, but the world economy is fucked up beyond all repair with no end in sight. Dow 5000? Shit, try Dow ZERO.
To quote Jon Stewart:
"These Wall Street guys were on a Sherman's March through their companies financed by our 401ks and all the incentives of their companies were for short-term profit. And they burned the fucking house down with our money and walked away rich as hell and you guys knew that that was going on."
Their minions who commentate on CNBC defend the sanctity of the "contracts" that have allowed executives to steal taxpayers' hard-earned money so they can ski Europe and travel the world on their yachts.
You want my portfolio? Here it is: Cash, gold, silver, Spam, firewood and ammo-- not necessarily in that order.
Nice...
Cheer up... Would you... Fuck!
I'm just playing...
Behind my cool exterior...
As much as T-lo talks "All in". I wouldn't touch etf's for my portfolio. I like the weightings, but if i use that, I'm going to need to just manage a portfolio of stocks.
and ... her Buy signals ... even she knows that generally when they are hit.. the market pulls back.
Wait till the axe falls on those and we realize what a scam ETFs are, or how "wall street" has been Gaming them and that the "Gaming" is more expensive than the management fees on a Mutual fund. WallStreet tries to screw me on owning stocks, I mean the ass rape in owning Derivatives.
I'm happy to be overall Not in the market.
I know when the economy is in trouble... I know when it's not in trouble... I'm happy to trade till we hit the latter.
The market doesn't turn on a dime, we need to go sideways for a day to see some kind of turn. As much as sentiment feels like there might be turn here... I'm not totally convinced yet. It's a long way back to 800. and even then we will bounce off it again... then have to develop an ascending triangle bla bla bla. Even with a move up toward 800 we are days away from breaking it.
Even worse I'd like to see a few days of sideways with a spike low. which could happen below the nov low.
always live to fight another day.
But that some company that will fail if it can't roll over it's debt... well it's going to take advantage of the TALF. and that some companies are going to be Cautious about congress assessing some kind of penalty for doing it... I guess they can Fail... that is some game theory... I'll let the company fail if I don't get my Bonus... and yet... they may do it there is enough of this crazy shit going on in the economy... that needs to be Shaken out. These people need to lose their jobs.
You want a good indicator... how about when CNBC lays off half the staff.
STAY WELL BUDDY... STAY WELL.
Mostly blowing off steam and doing some writing exercises for my court-mandated anger management class (kidding).
Have a good weekend... the Wal*Mart has a special on canned fish, so I'll be there bright and early to stock up.
We have talked about it before.. there is this awefull tenancy to both fade and not fade T-Lo.. almost like talking to a wall.
what we will be looking for on monday is some base building.
I was looking at charts last night...
there is also every possibility that we will "build a base" in the 700-800spx range for a few weeks. just trade choppy
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