Financial history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes. You can't be stupid enough to trade off anything I say.... I'm lucky they let me out of the straight-jacket long enough to trade.

J. P. Morgan

"Sell down to your sleeping point"

Friday, March 20, 2009

GYOFB

The horror show is that the lower the market is the more we get "Statesman-like behavior" we get from the party in power, and the higher we get the more childish they act. Then the reverse seems to be true with the Minority party. If we are Truly moving with the Ebb and Flow of Congress, sounds range bound to me... but the closer it gets to November of next year... the more they will want to see 12K on the DOW.... Of course.. If capitulation nobody cares anymore.

The Country is "A-Flame", People seem ok with the spending "I guess we have to do it.".... But they want somebody to Pay. I quote how J-Leno suggested that "Doesn't Somebody need to go to jail". Maddoff Isn't enough.

There is some Brinksmanship(which is a game Congress plays better than wallstreet). As the Banks Say "We didn't need the money.", and Congress says "Then give it back, Furthermore if then if you do need it, you don't get a Bonus to get bailed out by the taxpayer."... Probably would have gone over better if the banks had clicked their heals and said "Thank you, Sir.". I'm not sure that is in Wallstreet's vocabulary.

One could Quote Friedman "there is no such thing as a Free Lunch"

I could liken it to the tech crash. Where After 2000, guys were happy to have a job at 1/4 the wage they were getting. For "Talented people" who are so familiar with business cycles, they sure seem to be blind when the cycle applies to them.



One of "our" thesis is that the Waiters and service workers are holding up the economy. One might remember that those that founded Laissez-Faire, ended up on a chopping block, and the country turned against capitalism. So ask "Who wants to save Capitalism? The service workers? They want Healthcare. The boomers? They just want to retire. Gen X... They were taught this was not sustainable anyways. Gen Y? they are just figuring out they are going to need to "work". So who is it that is going to save Capitalism? The guys getting the AIG bonus? Citigroup? Goldman?.

So... The broader Question is "Who is the Dog, and Who is the Tail?"

WallStreet has always seen themselves at the dog.

Seems like if I show up at "Dad's house" asking for a Loan. It seems like I'm stuck Cleaning Gutters as pulling off the cover from the air conditioner till it's paid off.


...As far as losing talent. I'd like to refer to The Dilbert principle

But... post hoc ergo propter hoc.

sometimes you are just struggling with the 50dma.

And to be Diabolical.. it was going to take more than one day of selling to suck the bears in again.(or we are finished ;) )

Doug Dachille had a great rant about how corrupt the shareholder system, and how the agents acting on behalf of the shareholders has become. It's charming as things have blown up the solution is to "re issue options for employees" instead of accept that the company needs to be "Rebuilt"... this hits on the Greenspan MEME about how "Our model was wrong"












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