This is where the bullshit gets thick. I have 3 models... Can you guess that One is up, One is down, and one is sideways... Ok... I wouldn't do that. 2 are up 1 is down.
Just to make it clear what I see.
- Large pullback consolidation. In the Middle of any good Rocket ship, there is one big correction. Like the Size of the VIX... So 400pts or 40spx. From Yesterday Peak to today, it's roughly 20pts or 200pts.. So every chance of a further pull back of that size. Hinting at 200pts down tomorrow or 100pts tomorrow and 100pts on monday. There are no sellers under 700spx, I kid you not... if there were no buyers there are no sellers.. people may try to short it... but it won't have enough mojo for anything segnificant IMHO. there is also a chance of a slow pull back most of next week.
- The other 2 are just resolutions... We could have the above consolidation. which then resolves in Another leg up to the mid 850-900 Or a Bull trap above the 50dma.
As I look at sentiment and I see bears and a ton of neutrals(scared to be wrongs)... Maybe 3-15 bullish..
It may take another sell day to suck some sellers in..... I still wouldn't be supervised at a spike higher tomorrow then days of selling.... Ofter OE options expiration the market tends to trend in the same direction... so... Since my thesis is Bullish... I have no idea how it will work...
and hell as bearish as everyone is... Up seems like the direction.
2 comments:
From the Mar 9 low, the XLF has had 3 pull backs to the 23% retracement and recovered from each one. We are now at the 4th Fib 23% retracement. It seems just too perfect to have yet another perfect recovery. Seems we should break down a little here in the financials.
in the form of an ABC correction
Good T.A....
you are getting better :)
BUT EVERYBODY IS BEARISH!!!!
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