Financial history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes. You can't be stupid enough to trade off anything I say.... I'm lucky they let me out of the straight-jacket long enough to trade.

J. P. Morgan

"Sell down to your sleeping point"

Wednesday, April 23, 2008

Midday muddle

I've been playing with the VWAP so it's now on my charts. After a strong open and run higher, the market pulled back to an intraday low... but not a 2 day low.... and is now moving higher. I posted days ago that I wouldn't have been surprised to see the spy pull back to 136. Never happened... I suspect the Wave B pull back after our run to the 1398 level is over, and we are going to do some Distribution for a few days(4-7) between here and 1410 ish....
The XLF continues to be weak, and is defying my thesis on a break out in financials.... guess I'll just keep swing trading them. The XLF will probably pull back to 24.... and again run to 27.... If this happens I'd use this as a que to get short..... My regional are pulling their usual pull back to their range bound lows...... Tough to say... but they probably aren't to be trusted....
The SMH has crossed back above the Vwap... and thos that VWAP... say that will probably lead us higher for the rest of the day.

I'm going to stick with my slow Melt up theory.... so.. Maybe an up 100 day, followed by an up 50..... up 25 .... Up 0....... Bear capitulation...
but do you believe I'm just waiting taking a Break from trading, and organizing my MP3's.....

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