Banks- Long Shallow

Theory is that banks are the first bull out of the bear.

This is a Super Cycle which does throw that playbook out.

Someone made the argument that the multiples in the financials hadn't bottomed since they are no where near the 90's level.....

Problem is, that was post the S&L crash... I bet people were scared that would spread to more of the banks.

I'm still trying to figure this out, trying to not get caught up in my own hype...I can't imagine that we will run past 1410-1420.... Umn

I'm super Bearish......

International stocks, materials, inflation.... those things can keep the market up.

It really is the stagflation trade...

If the dollar stops and doesn't move down anymore... that should leg down the commodities.

But.... overall I think this recession will be LONG and Shallow.