Financial history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes. You can't be stupid enough to trade off anything I say.... I'm lucky they let me out of the straight-jacket long enough to trade.

J. P. Morgan

"Sell down to your sleeping point"

Saturday, February 6, 2010

Clarification

Some People... seem a little freaked out. Which I find Valid, We should hate this market, and find it Offensive and Ridiculous... and just a nightmare to navigate.


This Isn't Fun!

I'm looking at the above swing, Marked in red. It is my Thesis that this swing is Over. That where I have marked with the Green Arrow, under the White lines. Is a nice "Trap". And it is going to "Ram It" up the Bears Ass...
For how long? I don't Know.
Where is it going? I don't know.
Here are the swings Marked out on the Daily. This way I can talk about the Intermediate Move.

Is the swing in Blue finished? I don't know. I suspect that swing is over. 70%
Is this Blue swing just wave A in a larger Corrective Pattern? I don't know. Probably 70%

Is the blue swing the entire Intermediate Trend?
These are my 2 concerns and the supporting evidence for this:
  1. THAT VOLUME WAS HUGE... We haven't seen 500Million spy shares since March. Not even the "little Correction" we saw in May/june(whenever) Traded that many shares. HUGE!!!!!!
  2. Doug Kass believes that is probably "The Correction", Now Doug is fickle. In 3 days or in 2 weeks, he could be Uber Bearish. It's also possible that he wants to "Pretend he was right", and Rain Danced from September Through Jan, He got his "Good Call", and wants to "Mark a Win". Even though it is a Pretend win.(No wonder he Twitter Blocked me.)(To give Doug his due, he suffers from being Definitive in the market. As opposed to all the "Hedgers"
How Significant is this evidence for an Intermediate Swing? I give it 50/50 as ... Significant... to put it in a phrase "It gets the Hair up on the back of my neck"

What does all this Mean.... I don't fucking know... I'm just trying to make money!

So... I think it is going to Bounce.... "Some kind of Bounce"... and some kind of bounce on the Daily.... 4 bar flag? Some kind of 3 week bounce?
Yes, this is what i think... somewhere from 4 bars to 3 weeks....

that is what I think.

maybe we move lower... maybe that was a bottom.

The best thing the bears have going for them, is that that was the most well called bottom EVER!

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