Financial history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes. You can't be stupid enough to trade off anything I say.... I'm lucky they let me out of the straight-jacket long enough to trade.

J. P. Morgan

"Sell down to your sleeping point"

Sunday, February 28, 2010

Obligatory chart talk

There is a solid chance of some kind of Inverted Head and Shoulders here. Certainly we want to watch for the Trade of last resort, in a couple places. It "Feels right" to have a False breakout on last Monday's high. This would suggest some kind of "Triangle" probably symmetrical. The next question you have is "on what time frame"... Ya! Good question, It could be on just about any time frame; Daily, 65, 130, 30.
Another thing to watch out for, is some kind of Inverse Head and shoulders here, on the daily. Could be... I'll stick to my Head and shoulders theme, and that this is a right shoulder, forming. I have to say that it looks like we still want to go higher, in the short term.

Things continue to be mixed, "The Breakout" could convince them into the bullish stance. Traders seem to be 40-60% one way or another. Bears and bulls, Oh My. It's hard to fade either one of these camps. BUT.. Like I've said since last Monday, the Greek MEME feels like it's building again, though over the weekend, the meme is that "They are working it out."... Even if they do, it still works out as a possible "Sell the news"

The 2 most punishing patterns would be Sideways, or some brutal Stair step down.

Another thing I want to add, there isn't much advantage here. It''s probably a slog, unless you are trading individual intraday swings..... Which, Just to say it... I FUCKING HATE.


Tony said...

Yes, we've been challenging the resistance enough times where it will likely breakout at this point. I would be loathe to call it an "inverse h/s" since that is not really a valid pattern. A "h/s bottom" forms only after a significant downward move.

This is kore like a test of top that might succeed-- but if it fails, we will fall abruptly back into the channel.

Much of this move this morning is eurusd driven and pound-usd driven:

Eric said...

well, the last "inverse H&S" that we Mocked as "Not a valid pattern" as part of a Basing pattern.

Worked out "Text Book" to it's Head And shoulders pattern.

gold was actually messy, but you can say, this is a Basing pattern, it would help, if everyone saw it.

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