Just imagine a SPX trading choppy for 4 pts.....
they are selling selling treasuries... or trying to...
dollar strong....
but it takes the If-> Then crowd on the announcement to get out of the way....
then for all the stops to get triggered....
then for a trend to happen....
Fucking Fed day...
the other thing that pisses me off about both the fed day and the NFP... is that it's like normal trading stops for 2 days.....
Wednesday, June 24, 2009
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Top-ticked materials on the day. Couldn't get any RSX short shares. Darn.
Your dollar is rallying. Why doesn't it it move more in tandem with treasurys?
they arn't excatcly correlated...
the correlation is that if Saudi is buying treasuries, they have to buy dollars to do it...
Macro man suggested that the arabs are buying Euro's...
there is a new way for them to lose money...
there is just an attempt at some kind of weird treasury correlation right now... but is more of one of those Woody brock things where the lemmings are fucking things up.. till the macro but fucks them...
as the market moves into "bull mode"
or what may pass for bull mode...
the short end of the curve should move to 2% yields and Maybe the long end may move to say 6%....
Then as the bull cycle moves on.. you get the flat and inverted
all to 6% or so....
for the past decade 4% yields have been normal... but more risk in bonds could push them to 6%...
maybe but if there is just widespread systemic risk.... 4% will sound good...
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