Financial history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes. You can't be stupid enough to trade off anything I say.... I'm lucky they let me out of the straight-jacket long enough to trade.

J. P. Morgan

"Sell down to your sleeping point"

Sunday, March 14, 2010

Some market

There is a bit of a hanging man there. The xlf is more convincing, I'm not going to pull out that chart.

Tony has a nice little, post about this being wave 3. There are reasons I abandoned EWT, but this is a concern. For "Some kind of top"

Other Concerns I have, are that we have had tuesday-Wed. fairly convincing "Top sentiment", but then it has given way. To tons of "Top Callers", We talk about my sentiment indicator, and I have to go with a 7 or an 8.. more like an 8. Could be a 9. But it's like 10-20% of the folk out there are bearish... and its roughly reflected in the investors intelligence survey.

I'd also like to add, that with my birthday, and all the other crap going on.
Training, Diet, The Piles and Piles of work I have taken on.

I just feel a little "Off", Like I've said, Something has to give, and at this point, it's this stupid game, we like to call "The Market"

The good reversal, on my charts, is Monday, so some continued "Action" on Monday, would not surprise me, or even a couple more days of Grind. Beyond sentiment, I was playing with some of the old Time Series models, and some new ones. They aren't convincing for a Bearish move. Basically, that just says we are grinding .... And I'm not sure what that says about the market. I would just say, that it's continued reason to be Cautious the difference could be as simple as volatility.

To stop, fucking around with hedges, it seems like we should be at a Swing High, on the daily. the difference between my sentiment indicator 9 and a 10, is what happened on Thursday. Where 10% Call a top, and it shoves it up their asses. and that gives us a 10. But it never does stay a 10. I didn't watch the Morons on CNBC on Friday, and was not all that sure how excited they were.
Though I think we have a solid swing High, I'd still play it cautious. But you are also going to have to keep your eyes open for "The Jugular", There is that perfect moment to Short the market, and a morning Gut Check, can be the difference between a good swing trade, on the daily, and having the kids eat Dog Food, for a month.







2 comments:

Tony said...

I'm the first one to admit that I really don't understand sentiment. I see very little direct or inverse correlation between quantifiable sentiment numbers and market movement, with one big exception: big bottoms are marked by universal negative sentiment and price washout followed by dramatic upward moves in prices.

Other than that, the daily and weekly gyrations of the market seemed detached from small sentiment moves. Having said that, I see the invivo barometers of high/lows are approaching intermediate tops. The fact that "some" people are blogging about a top also seems to indicate a pullback here. There has to be someone to start the cascade for a pullback. Anecdotally, I'm reading a lot of traders are "setting their sell-stops" higher, having less faith that the market has enough gas for a push higher.

Technically, this market is overbought. Fundamentally, this market is expensive. The oily rags are laying about, now we just need a spark.

Eric said...

I'm roughly Agreeing

but the Cascade starts with that "Perfect sentiment point"

no more buyers, No more people to "Cover their shorts, and become buyers"

That is where the cascade starts. It doesn't start with sellers, it starts with a lack of new buyers. I would expect it to be more like 5% Bearish right now, and not 10-20% at this moment. This is my Reservation.

the High level of bearishness, still suggests your "Wave 4" into Wave 5 concept, may play out.

or I'm "off my Feed" and having a tough time right now, and am reading it wrong.

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