Financial history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes. You can't be stupid enough to trade off anything I say.... I'm lucky they let me out of the straight-jacket long enough to trade.

J. P. Morgan

"Sell down to your sleeping point"

Saturday, March 27, 2010

5am... Exhausted

I pointed this out this week.

It's Doug Kass' 20 things that could make a market top.

This is First order Thought:
None of these 20 things has happened. So... We are waiting for some of this to happen, to mark a top.

This is second Order Thought:
Doug is kind of a joker. Don't take it literally. Funny joke Doug

Third order:
If you notice none of those things have happened, Therefor Doug is bullish. Which is 20. Doug is bullish, this marks a top.
Fith Order:(ya, we are skipping... you just tend to skip)

If Doug is bullish, he posted that to indicate it, in his Snarky way. But this makes him Bearish, So he isn't Really Bullish. Yet again He is calling Top. He could be Right, he could be wrong. But honestly, it's a Crap shoot. At this point it's over-thinking it. But Certainly Even Doug, isn't denying the Strength of what is going on in sentiment. If you are looking for him to get Bullish.... That isn't it.
Some other notes.

The quantifiable sentiment notes have come out, news letter writers... etc... and they are very bullish, This should keep any "Smart Money" sidelined. We still have end of the month allocations. It will be interesting to see this money come in, But I don't know if you have noticed, but much of that money goes into bond funds.

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