Financial history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes. You can't be stupid enough to trade off anything I say.... I'm lucky they let me out of the straight-jacket long enough to trade.

J. P. Morgan

"Sell down to your sleeping point"

Friday, July 31, 2009

Sentiment

I just want to cover some sentiment stuff... I tried to take a few hours and go over "The Bible" yesterday... but it's going to have to wait till tomorrow.


One thing that bothered me in the "June top" was that we should have "Denial Of positives" and we did have that NFP that was not as bad as expected, that we sold on....

Did that count as "Denial of Positives".... HMMMM.....

The second thing that Bothered me was the Reversal... Which didn't "Feel Like" Buy the dip... but Technically it Looked like it..... Since march... I had been expecting a "Significant Test" of the Trend... because there Tends to be one in one of these Uber Strong Trends.. Some kind of "Strong Retest"...... Not to Backtrade my sentiment... but Finally we got a real Retest.

So.... we ask ourselves... as this trend has not responded to .... "Bottom in Housing" or some of the other... Decent News... one could actually call it "good news".... and for the market to respond Negatively..... or Marginally

What I'm getting at is that it could be/ and seems like a much better "Denial of Positives" than the June one.

SO... that is what has me calling Top.... I'll admit that the "buy the dip" sentiment being a little Weird... does suggest a "Chance" that we are still doing the wall of worry. Or Else.... But sentiment can be nebulous...


In other sentiment news..... This move in the dollar sure has Santelli all Wet in his panties!(sorry sensitive readers)

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