Financial history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes. You can't be stupid enough to trade off anything I say.... I'm lucky they let me out of the straight-jacket long enough to trade.

J. P. Morgan

"Sell down to your sleeping point"

Wednesday, December 12, 2007

Feeding the inner gambler

.... so, This has been Rough. Someone called me today, and I said "This is the nastiest week of trading I've ever played. "Right, So I put in a short position on Monday, Then I back it up before the fed on Tuesday. It Rolls in my favor to the tune of $4(per share)... I let it ride. I almost didn't, But Elliot Wave says 2 corrective moves, and I only count one.... Let me just tell you how Tight my nuts squoze when I saw the futures go 270 positive.... Never seen that in my life, and I'm short....

"I'm like... Well "what" it could go, 3 points against me, I'll cover and break even..... And Don't panic..... We open and the market settles.... I'm $1 against me... which is my risk tolerance, every trade I'm prepped for it to go $1 against me, and I cover... I sit and watch.... over an hour suddenly I'm up $1...... GOOD GOD.

End of the day, I'm up again $5. Saying I'm going to cover, and I see other people covering..... The gambler/contrarian in me says "you know if other shorts are covering, it means there will be plenty of money on the short side of the market, sidelined waiting to crush the bulls tomorrow.... So... Why miss the opportunity of a down 50 gap down, then wait for the opportunity to jump in, and miss $1 or $2 on the downside... I know if I look back on it and execute better, I could gain $1 or whatever. I've played this before, and I'm more likely to lose downside than gain it..... so, I stayed pat......
When I realize that what I am doing is what everyone else is doing, and then work counter to it, try and be ahead of the curve, I feel better about my trades...... And usually I don't get burned.

So, I'm listening to Peter Schiff...... Ben Stein apologises to Peter Schiff. Peter is fun, I'm not a coolade drinker, but he is super smart, and it's always interesting to hear what the Super Bear has to say.

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