Financial history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes. You can't be stupid enough to trade off anything I say.... I'm lucky they let me out of the straight-jacket long enough to trade.

J. P. Morgan

"Sell down to your sleeping point"

Wednesday, December 12, 2007

I wrote this and couldn't delete it, or post it to comments.

Mike,
Hopefully this comes off like I'm not taking issue with you. Since I'm not and I was mostly jokeing.
I joke, and honestly this is serious business. I honestly want no one to lose money, and we could have tolerated a .50 cut without pushing the Peso/dollar off a cliff.
Yes, there are things they could still do.. But it will only go to their lack of competence to come back in 3 days and change the reserve ratio, or lower the discount window... or other things, which comes in like they were "late with their homework"
Without doing a thesis of Risk Vs. Reward, and how lack thereof started this Fiasco..
and the obscene idea that the fed would try and pull the risk from the market, and create and even more catastrophic event that the one they/congress/and the consumer already built.
The market coming down could...
Pull the steep end of the yield curve down, lowering the Mortgage rates.
Also... force more money from equities to cash, providing more Liquidity for the banks.
The Biggest problem in my guesswork/estimation is that Europe/Asia won't loan us a nickle.... Because
1. we pushed off a few hundred Trillion in Bad loans off on them(no worries, that is only 4x our GDP).. No worries we called it AAA, and now it's A or B rated.
2. What we are paying back, on that paper, we are paying off at .80 on the Dollar.
3. We are seen as the biggest bunch of Toothless/ loan Welshing Hicks on the planet.
That is why we have a credit crunch, not because of loose money or tight money, but because we(our financial system) tried to rip off the people loaning us money, and they turned off the spigot... Now all that comes out is Dirty Pee water(AKA the remaining American Liquidity, that investors aren't smart enough to move out of the country).
But sure, "we will pay it back THIS time", we sound like my sister.
To me it's good to hear that we could keeping a bid in the dollar, and show some integrity, to the world that we won't print our way out of our debt. by pushing the Dollar down another 20%.
I keep having these crazy ideas, that my bank could come to me and make me a great offer, for them to borrow some of my Cash... Like, say at 15%, and make it worth my while to provide them with liquidity... as opposed to the Fed pushing the Fed Funds down below Mainline, and definatly below what I see as Actuall inflation...
Crazy stuff like that may get some of the people with cash around the world to provide some Lequidity... as opposed to "Printing Fake Dollars." from the Lender of First resort. Trying to Reflate every bubble popped in the past 30 years. Maybe if we pump hard enough we can Bring Back The housing boom, tech 1.0, japan, S&L, Bellbottoms, and Stagflation.... oops did I just say that.
sorry this has deteriorated into a rant... and I'm about to go off about how all our natural resourses are owned by Non U.S. companies, and this will probably give them the opertunity to buy up the rest.
But as The talking Morons on the TV and Media say "The weak dollar is good for us.... ya... for us, to destroy what remains of the middle class, and push them into indentured servitued untill they Revolt. No worries, keep them filled with Fudruckers hohos and dingdongs, and sitting in front of their Flat Screen and X-box, Watching the last 50 years of "I love Lucy", "Seinfeld", and "Friends" till they are 400 pounds and they will never be able to load up the guillotine...... but that is super Bullish for stocks!!!!!

No comments:

New Economic Indicators and Releases

What does Blue Horse shoe love?- Blog search of "BHL"

cnbc