When it looked like the S&P was going to set a new high today, my hands started shaking, and I kept reminding myself to control my emotion. And someone was talking about contrarian indicators.... Since then I'm just happy to be up more and more each minute... Or less down. Based on the research I did last night, we should trade back to the inverse of this rally. that is back down to 1439 or so. I'm not sure I can hold on that long, unless we start throwing the knife. but the stops will slow that down.
I looked into it because Cramer started talking about how "When the inflation bears start talking, and if the market backs off. Don't sell." and he is correct historically. within a month or 2 we will be back to the highs we set today.
After a rally going to all new highs, we will either go into a year of ups and down or a Bear market.. based on the numbers I've seen we are into one hell of a recession. and the fed only has a few points to give back... they only have 5 pts worth of Puts.
There is a year where we set a double top before the sell off of the "Fed Cut" Rally. Regardless we test the bottom, but I cold be screwing myself for not covering here. but most my down side has been up till now. what's another few hundred dollars....
The Bears here are being helped by people who don't want to give back there gains.... Then I bet they shit thinking that the bears are right inflation is going to get us and no one will ever buy a house again.
When I talk about this rally it's the one where we go from "Tightening" to "easing".. I haven't looked into the post first easing rally.
if any of this makes any sense.
Financial history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes. You can't be stupid enough to trade off anything I say.... I'm lucky they let me out of the straight-jacket long enough to trade.
J. P. Morgan
Wednesday, September 19, 2007
What a morning
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