Morning Thesis and Gameplan.

Trading above 1525 I'll get nervous.... today.

My suspicion this mornign is a sucker rally. BTW I missed 15% in GSS yesterday.

5 week long thesis.

1. We Start Gapping down today.. and end at 1440
2. We go up to 1439 Double top then work back down to 1440
3. in either of the two above scenerios. We could pause at 1505 and/or 1485 for 1 to 5 few days. on our way to 1440... I'd be willing to take a chance at 1485 for a 3-5 day bull.
4. If we break 1439 I'm a Bull.
5. we get past tuesday, I'm a bull.

My long term thesis is that ... for the next 12 months we are setting up like we were post vietnam.... Ya, Iraq is vietnam. A weakening economy and Limp Dick-edness as we start talking about cutting our losses in iraq after the new year. Recession Etc... into the worst bear market we have seen in 30-50 years.

If we shake off a pull back here and go directly into testing highs... I suspect a crash soon.

Key indicators:

France wants a EU rate cut... Which will help us. If the EU capitulates to a rate cut then things are good. If the EU "Tightens" We are fucked, and we take the world down in a Hyperinflation, Death spiral.

If you want to talk about the smartest thing china and europe could do... it would be "Raise rates" and basicly we have Economic WW3. Everyboddy takes a smackdown, but we get the worst of it, and come out of it with our tails between our legs.

Ich.... The futures are up 73 on the Dow..... Gut CHECK!!!!!!