I so believe my Thesis. There are just a lot of bulls out there that don't want to accept that we are in trouble.
Horrible things going on.
Oil at $80
Lower metal prices.
Wheat at some ridiculous $9
when you look at some commodities prices you think we are looking at the great depression. In fact I'm tempted to go out and buy 2 years of Wheat...... "Just in Case"... I make a mean loaf of bread.
When I was going to cut my losses today. I realize how close we were to some real resistance. The fact that it seems harder to test the 10 day high than it is to test the 10 day low, has to kill the bulls as bad as it kills me not to test the lows.
We seem to be consolidating between the 50 ma and the 200ma Which is killing me to watch. If I were liquid, I'd wait for the breakout which would be easier. We are absolutely waiting to explode...
When I'm not gambling heavily with my money with mother market, I spend my time Upgrading networks.... The best move in tech right now is to update hardware... and not desktops. The network backbone the Routers, switches, Network cards, Faster Servers.... These things are able to be upgraded.... Meaning that the technology is sufficient to make cost justifiable upgrades to the network hardware....
But the software, and the desktops.... Well any self respecting I.T. person knows we are stuck in the technology of the past 5 years... Besides doing pointless upgrades for moron clients, literally sucking them dry... That stuff goes nowhere.
So, watch out in this tech upgrade, to avoid the non Network Hardware names. I also think that besides the orders that are coming in in these first few week(I.E. the Intel upgrade), that sector is going to be weak. And to lump the semiconductors in consumer electronics into that trade is silly, when the consumer will be weak this X-Mas.
The nitty gritty of it is that.... with weakening Basic materials plays, about half if not 75% of the tech play being bogus. The Employment numbers being weak. High Oil prices. Everything except 'The Rate cut" being in the Bear's favor.
With paulson, talking about how the "economy is strong", and how the housing thing is minor...(sure he could Lying, just to not panic the market).
With the metals and materials falling, that means the only good Bull market in this market is falling apart.......
I don't know what to say beyond this.....
I'm thinking about going for wings and beer for dinner.....
Financial history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes. You can't be stupid enough to trade off anything I say.... I'm lucky they let me out of the straight-jacket long enough to trade.
J. P. Morgan
Wednesday, September 12, 2007
good lord
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