Alright Slow Coaches.....
NOTHING MEANS this economy won't act irationaly and go through the roof in the next 3 months...... MORE THAN this week.
Bullshit arguments that will work.
The falling stocks are falling cause they are weak, but great international names like RIMM AAPL and other Tech crap will Tear, and given international exposure... it just means MORE PROFITS FOR TECH and Materials.
The Stock Market has unhitched from the U.S. Economy, and even slowdown by the U.S. Economy won't stop mother market.... Unless it's shopping names...
Subprime will just cause a slowdown in Subprime... and some housing... But we KNEW THAT.
This is all bullshit, but bullshit that will sell through the next cut or not cut of interest rates......
Which isn't inflation........ it's inflation ex-inflation.
any talk about slowing world economy, or inflation or weak dollar or any of that crap should receave a slap in the face..... especialy that the U.S. Consumer runs this entire world economy.
Friday, September 28, 2007
Morning thesis
I sent this email to squawk box this morning.
I want an investigation, Greenspan is short the dollar!
None of the new numbers were outside the expectations of anyone but the most intellectually challenged bulls.
Somehow, the new numbers are a Surprise to Greenspan and he changes from a 1/3 to 1/2 chance of a recession in the course of a Week.
Not only is Greenspan Talking his "Book" literally, to boost sales but I want the S.E.C. to see if he is Short the U.S. Dollar, or in other ways using his former position to manipulate the markets to his benefit.
Just playing, here.
That comment is ridiculous, I bet in another week he is at 2/3. Everyone knows we are either just about to slip into recession or already are, but somehow this is a surprise the PHD economist former fed chairman, I know they are slow-Coaches.. but that is out of hand. Sure he is no Volcker.
Thanks for being the focus of my morning venting…
From a guy (full disclosure here) long the market
This is what I do sometimes to vent my rage.... send crazed email..... or blog grazily.....
Probably need to take my medication then run.......
WTF!!!!!
Are you fucking high......... The minute I go long, the fucking universe turns its fucking magic wand against the market.......
The most damning numbers against the market.... The fact that the consumers are slowing down... is by far more segnificant than those fucking housing numbers.... Of course they are slowing, and of course they are worse when poeopl cant get morgates because there is no credit..
There was always a chance that consumers would keep on spending... Just a little less.
and FUCKING 4 DAYS after that FUCKTARD greenspan said "Still the chance of recession is 1/4 to 1/3" last fucking weekend.. NOW That d#@!bag is turning his opinion around..... NO FUCKING SHIT WE ARE GOING INTO RECESSION... But hold the party line you fucking asshole..... you have been doing it for weeks.... what are the numbers on your retarded book slipping?...... Ya the war was about oil...... WTF soon he will be saying that the fucking stock market and economic structure of this country are just a device to keep the fucking white man on top.............. What are you Short the dollar????
I WANT AN SEC investigation!!!!!
Thursday, September 27, 2007
Morning game plan.....
Wait it out.... Nasdaq up 11.
do you think that when there is an expectation of a full point cut, that the bullshit will actually hit the fan?
We got a little bump yesterday, with I'm sure some hedge fund trying to get out of the market ASAP.....
The whole market is turning up, I just can't see that doing anything but providing upward momentum for the Nasdaq. I like to see us getting 50 pt gains instead of hundred....
in fact I'm going to go for a morning run this morning.....
Honestly I feel like shit. The market running like a bat out of hell, is certainly not in my play book... to me it just means the end is closer than one expects.... The idea that the American consumer doesn't push most of the world economy.... it's just laughable....
Wednesday, September 26, 2007
Halo 3.... Amazingly more Hype than originaly Hyped
WHOLY SHIT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
UNREAL!!!!!
HALO 3 on an expectation of 150-200 million in it's first 24 hours.... Has Delivered an amazing number $170 Million in that time....EXCEEDING the low range of the Estimates.....
Proving again that the HALO franchise is HUGE....
Original HALO 2 numbers Paled in comparison with a 150 million..... This 20 million dollar advance on the original show the MASSIVE strength of the franchise, with an amazing 11% increase in that franchise.
This going to show that if Microsoft can maintain those 24 hour numbers, in the weekly time frame, For the next Year, The Xbox division will turn to profit.
Yet to be known is the more impressive 12% gain for Halo 4 on the Xbox 720 expected to be released next year.
Early Hype on the 720 is that the controller will attach to your penis, giving you a complete tactile experience in the virtual world.
Also, Plans for other controllers that will inject into the users blood stream both Monster Soda, and the cure for Diabetes. in tandem.
Based on projected numbers.... profitability will be achieved by the Xbox division in 2020, after an cash injection by the "Bill and Melinda Gates foundation" in 2015. being reached for comment the foundation will reply "What's good for Microsoft, will be good for the Poor."
In further Microsoft, Altruism the have officially decided to ease the burdens of those afflicted by scratched original "Halo 3" disks. In an act of kindness Microsoft decided to ease the burden of a class action lawsuit on consumers by kindly deciding to return the disks.
Also to be noted that Xbox and Ipods will defiantly save Xmas... Lower than expected consumer confidence, will be smashed by massive droves of people Leveraging what is left of the equity in their homes. To buy enough Ipods and Xboxes for every member of the population. The bold expectation of wall street for a "Big Screen" Xbox and ipod in every room in the house will defiantly be attained. by dec 25.
As every member of the American public pulls down tons of cash at $14 per hour, with no insurance.
HALO 3... Bigger than Starwars.
When asked about the slim chance that the 170 million per week will be able to be maintained for the next 2 weeks, let alone for the next year.... Microsoft and wallstreet responded "Go fuck yourself and invest in gold, you fucking Bear."
the bull case
I'm going to argue the bull case... like an asshat.
From Doug Kass
"Target substantially lowered its September comp guidance from +4% to +6%, down to +1.5% to +2.5%, citing weakness in Florida and New York.
Target was supposed "
you see doug what they are doing is providing upside surprise... it will probably be 4% and they just want to get the bump up in the stock price.
and the rest of the story he just says how bad retail will be...
See the thing is this rate cut will make the economy even stronger. and those numbers just mean that they will cut a full point next time.....
Other than that they don't sell ipods BlackBerries big screens or xboxs which will be the big pull in the next quarter... Oh, wait a minute.. did I mention the rate cuts.... well that will make the manufacturers of these things more money as they pay other countries to manufacture......
Umn...
did I mention the rate cuts..... it means that everything in this country is on sale. and everything we buy is 25% more expensive, unless it's localy made.
as I step up to take my loss today
Stupid stupid stupid....
Reminder to self about hedgfunds kicking things they like in the ass end of the quarter.
Live and learn right.....
take my beating learn my lesson.
Take some time off.
Right the credit is loosening
the fed is going to cut more
ummm international sales will do well for these companies
we are going through the roof till we crash.....
comon, the fed is going ot cut......
Have I mentioned I'm getting smacked around
I'm vacillating between running hard and checking out the morning numbers..
Kirk says the Hedgies are buying up tech to keep their numbers up....
that shit gives me a tumor..
Fuck it, I'm a big boy.... Take my lumps....
Morning strength set a stop on a high and a low..... tighten it on lower lows to the lower highs.
The knife
So, as per the mantra to not let emotions handle my trades..... I'm going to set a stop on the morning stregnth.... I just can't bleed anymore..... or any more than I'm going to this morning....
I should run or get dogunuts this morning....
If I get boot stomped on this again... I'm going to have to re-evaluate my stratagy...
I guess I need to ride already established trends..... I've been doing so well seeing the momentum shift...
Just trying to keep my nuts under me...
Tuesday, September 25, 2007
Rimm
Oh!!!! Defiantly the P/E needs to be 140 giving it a price target of 190. it's the most natural thing. Sure people are losing their houses, but have you seen the new models.... you can live in them......
And the Iphone.... That shit is golden.... and everyone is going to want to replace all their software and hardware with a Mac......
America will live to relearn the office software again so that they can own that shit....
And Yes the new OS of the future for microsoft is actually Halo.... Definitely... FUCK VISTA....... Halo, and that lame fucking xbox 360...
Yes, no one will be able to have a home but who gives a shit, Nutrasystem and video games will keep our economy in unbelivable shape........ Not the consumer, not the thing that is 70% of our economy.....
Fucking assholes.....
This doesn't break down I'm becoming a Bull....
alright.... this doesnt' smarten up. I'll cover tomorrow on weakness.... and seriously I'll short when RIMM reports...
JEBUS that shit is crazy....
THE NASDAQ IS UP .5% and the S&P down .25....
Ok....
So I got out on my bike and... well, i'm not down that far.... and this market it very tired.... I'm just pissed I could have shorted any part of this market and I'd be up higher....
In fact the other parts of the market have been pulling back for so many days... I think it's time for them to turn...
I'm going to put a stop on this bet somewhere tomorrow, maybe another 50 cents or something...
I just.... there is nothing in this market that I want to short more than the nasdaq... It is trying to maintaint the momentum from the fed cut.... that fucker will be up another 4% soon.
This bullshit just has to stop.... I mean seriously..... The Xbox and Rimm are not going to save the global economy.....
One more big pull back before the Fed meeting......
Dont' fight the market
This is so high.... all this "Growth" stuck into a few names on the NASDAQ holding up this market....
CapEx is not going to hold up this market... the CEO's know about the slow growth, and the I.T. People don't want to upgrade to Vista........
to upgrade your system to RIMM costs 10,000 for a small business. they can't afford those systems now...
I bet half the capital expenditure was canceled this year.
this is a Weak ass rally...
Donald Trump doesnt understand the dollar, exhange rate and inflation....
and Erin .... Well she doesn't realize it...... Hey baby, he is as stupid as you are.
First on CNBC Loonie Saves X-mas
Seriously... Canadians are going to come from Canada and save Xmas for everyone.......
And Halo is a 8 billion dollar industry for MSFT....... which is still only 2% of total revenue even at that pretend amount... at best it's 150 million......
Com'on.... give it up......
Of course I'm stupid enough to short the strong part of the market....
consumers and businesses are not going to buy Ipods / and Blackberries.
Ok, they will, but not as many as expected.
my complaint on the qid was because it's the ex dividend date. Funny shit... I even sent hate mail.... ok I was nice.
This strength in the market is impressive.
Bad Xmas
Bad housing..
Not to joke about this.... I just... it's surprising we don't trade up on nuclear disaster/Terror attacks.
It's still going down...
Com on, the real denial will come out next month...
Things aren't that bad..... it's the slow money.
I like to imagine things on trading floors... "Are strikes bad for the economy"
"no dude this is good, GM will break the backs of those fools..... BootStomping"
"oh ok."
when the consumer is the strong part of our economy... when they don't have money isn't that bad...
Oh they just take out credit....
what happens when they run out of credit?
they go bankrupt and it all starts again.......
and the fed cuts rates....
The market trades more on momentum than anything else. Horseshit about oil or what ever is just ..... crap.
I'm psyched for RIMM and Garman and apple to take a shit... as the crowded trades just get too rediculous.
Erin Burnette
she was just heckled on the NYSE floor about how "bad news" means good because the fed will cut...
this is like watching the retarded figure out a puzzle... Recession you fucking Morons....
On other fronts the QID is trying to fuck buyers out of 1% Proshars seemed to think that the nas 100 opened up roughly 1% instead of down .5... and the qid is hitting all time lows while the qqqq isn't hitting all time highs.... it's like it's tracking yesterday... to be honest they have fucked up by a buck.....
I'm thinking from now on you just can't buy the powershares Products, This is roughly a 2% error.
Morning stupidity.... and gameplan...
My game plan... wait the day out..... down open rally to the 10:00 news... even though that is just stupid. Sell Sell Sell.... Get out... If we get 150 down on the dow today.... we should see a one day bounce.....
On my TV now... Buy Retailers.... but just the high end.... this is like saying. Housing is weak, but not in the high end, then the builders build millions of million dollar homes....
I'm looking for a down $10-15+ day on gold, or a down $3-4 on oil. .... Then for upside, I'll ride a gold miner for upside.
Now on CNBC "some fucking Governor gives his opinion on science"
this is how stupid we are. science to the scientist, and politics to the politicians.
GREED IS GOOD
Thoug Gekko Coined it, Rand has the Copywrite....
Target and lowes guide down....
the down down 50
the naz down 10
please let the strike spread to the rest of the country.....
My Crystal ball says:
Short Term:
Turn around wed, or thursday.
Possible attempt at a fake bottom today after a sell off.
The more fear we see the more likly the bottom.
Mid term:
choppy trading through the next fed meeting.
Longer term:
After the fed we trade up to new highs.
Fed doesnt' cut, economy is in control.
fed does cut, whoohooo free money.
Lot's of "it's not as bad as we expected"
Then the Q4 info starts comming in.
and we are in a Bear market:
Overall.... I expect a bounce, but this is a "dead Cat" bounce
this move ends either on par with the pre fed meeting or 1440 s&p
I'm not sure if I play gold or play tech after this. Let's see how the Naz does.
Monday, September 24, 2007
Ya Ya Ya
Well I'm ahead of the curve, just bairly. Wish I had bet the "DOG" or "SDS".... I just hate technology. and The assholes on CNBC calling for "Halo 3" to be bigger than Starwars, just sets my blood on fire. Hopefully as a contrarian it works out. Just because it's bullshit, doesn't mean that it won't make the stock rise....
With earnings coming up for crap like Rimm, which is such a Market "Darling" unless they miss estimates by 50%. it will take the market higher. I hope the UAW can take this to a few days. Rising fear is good for my short position.
Also, Ya the inflation argument is lame. I've been looking into it. and as I can tell, the 70's recession was exacerbated by thinking that the "threat of recession was over" and the Fed started tightening against inflation. Which then meant even more cuts and higher inflation...
Point being the Tightening screwed everything and made even more loosening, making inflation worse, when we realized that the threat to the economy was real.
guess that's kind of convoluted or I'm starting to fade.
I say I'm ahead of the curve, except I've been bearish for like 2 weeks. I guess they call dennis gartman the "kodiak" of bears... I guess that makes Herb greenburg the "Yogi" of bears....Maybe the "BoBo"
When did I start hating Erin Burnett.....
why are the most bullish people on this market the youngest on cnbc.
Cramer says "stock is undervalued when it trades up on bad news"
I wonder, does it also trade up on bad news when it's in a bubble. Everyone knows this bullish cycle is coming to a close. And Yet, stock will go higher.
Some guy was on this morning, "well the rate cuts will keep the stock going up till 15500. They just don't get that what causes the rate cuts are bad news for the economy. once that cycle gets going strong, we trade down.
someone also said today that "it's strange, this market is acting like this is just a market event, and not a coming recession."
Erin just said "HALO Three could be bigger than starwars."
Ok, there is no way in Hell. I will bet anyone, starwars is a multi billion dollar industry
the star wars movies in "box office" not merchandising, licencing, video, video games... etc. Just the box office was 4 billion, and that is not even adjusted for inflation.
UAW
Funny. nobody knows what to make of this... first strike by the uaw since '76.
This is what he said...
they worked out the health care thing. and the company wouldn't negotiate on anything else.
besides that part, which is a win for the car companies.
They didn't want to negotiate.
this will go till tomorrow, then they will start getting serious.
the management are going to be like
"What? your not coming to work? but your the lackeys who take all the shit from us. I don't get how you have the balls to not come to work."
WallStreet has yet to get it.
The UAW was on strike and on MSNBC "HALO 3's big release"... no we arn't run by the corporations.
*smacks market on the nose*
OK Dammit...... Give it up. And other than the UAW the other unions need to come to the aid of their brethren.
Please let this last a few days.......
Of course the fact there isn't a bear to be seen for days after the beating last week.
You know when I was a bull, Oil would go up .20 and that would be it... the market would be down 40 in 15 minutes.......
in about 2 hours there will be a settlement and we will be up 200
*gently soothes stock market*
*gently soothes stock market*
I'm so sorry, it's just time.... I know you have had a great run for the past 5 days.... it's just time.... Your going to have to give it up a bit.... I Know, you want to go up.. But there is a strike, you just can't do it.....
Alright you can, but your going to piss me off.
How in the fuck can the market try and trade up when the UAW is going on strike.....
Oh... I'm sure... just more reason for the fed to ease.
picked up the QID... Cause it's fighting a breakdown, even though the smh were the first to show weakness.
qid @ 40.77 That tape is nasty....
this morning, umn someone laughed about how we were trading like there was a market event. like a bomb or Russian debt LTC. and not like a recession was in the cards.....
we need europe to cut rates before we can trade up....
gold is trying to break down.....
oil is breaking down, and the associated stocks will go accordingly.....
The dumbest man on "the street" is buying retailers... he will get a return on that in 3 years.
buy and hold buddy........
Morning coffee
big cap earnings in tech.... wonder if this is where the shoe falls......
looks like we are going to open on the upside. I bet we trade up then come back down and test the bottom maybe 1516. If that fails I'm afraid of a sell off.... er a sell off that BTW I played Halo.... it's a good game, but the horseshit about it being "huge franchise"... at best it will make Mr. Softy. Only lose 90% of the xbox360. if you want an indicator of how weak the tech sector is. The PS3 and the 360 are just getting killed. if you can't get people to buy that crap. how can the rest of the tech sector rally....
Tech is still getting killed. Halo is not that bad a game...
but not "StarTrek" Not "Grand Theft Auto" Not "Mario Brothers"
all to say the hype won't get the stock up temporarily. Game plan is to look for some "Real Strength" and sell that. and not to chase a bottom. Nothing like starting the week out with a bad trade...
I complained about how stupid, the guest host on squawk on the street was.....
Now this morning, to hear the hackle raising voice of Erin Burnett.......... Ugh... I miss the really dumb one.
Morning game plan!!
I'm sticking with my thesis, regardless of my Moronic Trade.... I am going to see if I can make some good scores in the pre-market.
If I don't "really score" in pre-market, I'll chase any morning strength and make a purchase....
Umn none of this means I'll get a good chance to go for a run this morning.
So, uncle Ben makes this big move... which says "Recession is coming" but pawns it off as "I'm trying to lube up the banking sector"
and congress didn't hold his feet to the fire... at best asked him about inflation... Obviously he is an inflation hawk. He sees what is coming. and if we don't get some European easing in the next 30 days we are in trouble much faster than I anticipate.
after we get back to some bullishness, I'm going Gold Baby!!!
Saturday, September 22, 2007
Friday, September 21, 2007
So, Recriminations.
I did cover my short today.... Just to be honest.... Let me tell you why, and why I still think this was a mistake.
I've been making the mistake of trading off the technicals of the ETF's... and they are such laggards, and to be honest I think the management companies that run them are managing them with some..... Convenient math... which makes them almost unusable, unbuyable... since they can short you 1%on the upside and 1% on the downside especially on the double and inverse double ETF's....
If you look at the last 3 days... The QID(LOL... a day later I just realized that Ya, it double bottomed because the qqqq double topped, Damn.... I need more sleep) looks like it double bottomed... Maybe. But the SPY should look the same way.... The SPY looks bearish on the 3 day.
What I'm saying is that when Dylan Rattigain almost orgasms on air as he said that the Nasdaq had hit a new high (Which wasn't true, Either the Naz or the Naz100.)... I mean it did hit an intra day high, but not a weekly high, not a monthly high, not a yearly high....
What I get for not muting that shit.
Basicly I saw the double bottom, then was so relieve by the failed move pull back that I ended up covering. When honestly I wish I hadn't....
But I'm a big boy...
Contrarian indicators are showing High Bear potential.
- Orgasmic Dylan
- Giddiness on Kudlow
- Brian Shannon just gave the benefit of the doubt to the buyers... Which is almost a guarantee of a reversal of momentum.
- Cramer is calling for 1400 in the next 2 weeks.(funny thing happened on the way to 1400)
Actual bear signals
- Lack of "Short interest" providing limited Covering upside.
- Tons of in the money Calls may be redeemed and sold on Monday and Tuesday.
- Low volume rally
- High volume sell off, showing the smart money rolling out.(I was one of them till I quirred out today)
- High volume of weekend inflation talk.
- Lower High in the R2K... to be confirmed by a lower Low.
Missing Contrarians
- No golden bull on "The fly"
- I'm not long
Actual Bull signs
- Potential ascending triangle on the Nasdaq and the Dow.
- New high in the SMH(ICH)
- Dow setting a new high(ICH)
Honestly all of this just shows "Consolidation". I'm thinking about waiting for significant bear moves to short this bitch again.
Going to Puke, get some sleep... figure it all out.f
Neither bull nor Bear sign.... High Dollar....
High dollar is bullish for the commodities... So I guess it's a bull signal
Caos, the butterfly and a Hurricain
I still love my Thesis. This was such a weak Rally today, And you should have seen how I tried to shit my undies as the nasdaq Sort of " hit new Highs"... or double Topped.... We will see :)
My research this weekend as soon as I vomit, and get some sleep is going ot be about this.
Is oil leading gold,
Leading the Dollar,
leading oil service
leading basic materials,
leading the Nasdaq/Technology,
Leading The Dow,
Leading The S&P.
Using this math, on monday
the S&P will Jump on monday,
oil and gold will Tank(2%-4%),
The Nasdaq will have a small .5% 1% pull back from todays "Double Top"
CNBC will call it "Profit Taking"
Tuesday, Oil comes down again and the whole market goes Bear.... we talk about inflation, and blood starts to flow.
My idea this morning was that the hurricane was holding up the oil service stocks, and oil.....
So, I'm betting based on the Hurricane.
Get This shit:
If a Butterfly over Japan Flaps its Wings:
- That wind makes the hurricane get worse:
The stock market goes bull lead by oil, and it's off to the races Till the Recession hits.
- The wind from the butterfly makes the Hurricane go away:
Oil and gold weaken and we pull back....
THAT IS MY BET.... On the wings of a butterfly...
I know it sounds crazy.... but it entertains me.... and this is way better than the technicians who were talking about "The Magic of 'SEVEN" 1927 1987 2007"
Not sure when to bet it....
of course if we go off to the races cause the hurricane accelerates..... I'm betting a crash this year...
I hope your laughing as much as I am... But still I'm betting this way.
One big problem with my pull back is how dickless the shorts are, and how low the VIX is... Funny though I heard that that was a reason to look to the down side, because the shorts were the ones providing the upward momentem.
Morning Thesis and Gameplan.
Trading above 1525 I'll get nervous.... today.
My suspicion this mornign is a sucker rally. BTW I missed 15% in GSS yesterday.
5 week long thesis.
- We Start Gapping down today.. and end at 1440
- We go up to 1439 Double top then work back down to 1440
- in either of the two above scenerios. We could pause at 1505 and/or 1485 for 1 to 5 few days. on our way to 1440... I'd be willing to take a chance at 1485 for a 3-5 day bull.
- If we break 1439 I'm a Bull.
- we get past tuesday, I'm a bull.
My long term thesis is that ... for the next 12 months we are setting up like we were post vietnam.... Ya, Iraq is vietnam. A weakening economy and Limp Dick-edness as we start talking about cutting our losses in iraq after the new year. Recession Etc... into the worst bear market we have seen in 30-50 years.
If we shake off a pull back here and go directly into testing highs... I suspect a crash soon.
Key indicators:
France wants a EU rate cut... Which will help us. If the EU capitulates to a rate cut then things are good. If the EU "Tightens" We are fucked, and we take the world down in a Hyperinflation, Death spiral.
If you want to talk about the smartest thing china and europe could do... it would be "Raise rates" and basicly we have Economic WW3. Everyboddy takes a smackdown, but we get the worst of it, and come out of it with our tails between our legs.
Ich.... The futures are up 73 on the Dow..... Gut CHECK!!!!!!
Thursday, September 20, 2007
dollar 30 year low.
Comon fuckers realize what is going on..... Unprecedented recession.
Back to the 70's
oh and rick santeli says "Moral Hazard" again...
Dammit talk about how it's not inflation if you don't eat food, or drive a car.
Hate Mail
I just sent a comment to CNBC about how stupid the on air talent was as she got 1970 and 1980 confused....
I'm not sure about gold prices in 1970
but carter wasn't president
McEnroe wasn't the us open champ..
Alot of resistance at yesterdays low... Wonder if we can get through it.... Damn... may have to cover.....
More on the morning Thesis
So..... The jobless numbers make me nervous, it may not create the move I was hoping for. But some moves don't need a catylist.
When you look back at other moves in the market after the rate cuts... There is one where after the cut we do a short term "Double top".... I'm just not sure if I back out of my short here and reposition ....
but we always sell back to the start at a minimum.... that is 1491... and I wouldn't doubt if we bounce off of that.
It will make me shit my drawers here if we trade back up to 1537 if we can just get back to 1530... I'll stroke out if that happens....
Game on!!!!!!!
Euro Beating
Funny thing..... Europe purchased our CLO's and CDO's when the dollar was stronger... So not only are they taking a bath in the value, and that they are only mark to market at 40-60 cents on the Dollar.... it's a weaker dollar.
Jan 03 the dollar and Euro were even. Now it's .712 to the dollar. 70%.. What does that work out to be.... they purchased 1,000,000 of debt. which they can now sell at 600,000 if they are lucky... but they will only get 420,000 in eruo's for it now.... No wonder they are pissed.
Truth be told, right now if they buy those debts now. when the Euro falls (cause we will suck them down with us, over the next month) Then the debt they buy now at 420,000 will be worth 600,000 in a month or so.
And sure you can't currently sell it. but the defaults cant make it worth 60%. and in a month they will be able to sell it again... Maybe.... Then we really crash....
can't blame them for not wanting to loan us more money.
1990 recession
also noted gold goes from $260-370 roughly. This is the 2000 recession. We are looking at something in my opinion more like 1974. BRING BACK THE BELLBOTTOMS!!!!
Also remember Re: history repeating itself Bush was in office and a war with iraq...... SUPER CREEPY!!!
Morning Coffee, Thesis and Projected targets.
S&P1440... CRAZY!!! I know.
Realize though that once we hit 1451.5 we will see Huge panic sales as people try and maintain their gains from the fed jump.
There is no support from 1450 to 1480, because no one purchased there. We blew through it... Now there will be support 1480-1460 and we may even get a bound today.
This is all unprecedented, the dollar is at a historic lows....
housing hasn't fallen in price since 1950
So a huge reverse here isn't...... this could scare the shit out of people....
But... the curbs will slow us down. when the curbs which used to slow us at 20% now slow us at 4%... it will take 2 days unless within an hour we are hitting them this morning.
Also We could easily bounce off 1480 for a day or so... up to 1490.
I'm praying to god that Uncle ben can overt a huge early 1970's move or a 1929 type move.
Unprecedented moves are Presented.
Just heard a technision verify my call. 60 pt pull back then 1620 or 1640.... that is a pull back to 1470... I'm saying 40 more pts. than that... We will be so into "The Knife" that a good stop will get me out where ever...
This is crazy... Let's get that coffee.
I'm thinking I'll play a gold miner into the comming rally.
Wednesday, September 19, 2007
Huge head-ache
full on day.... it's all about the morning futures. after all the coffee and stress today, I want to puke, and have a splitting head-ache. I'd love to run or hop on the bike, but it just ain't going to happen. I want to stay up till 7pm or 8pm.
My 3 month game plan is this, we will have this sell off. Followed by a rally to some new highs. then reality will set in.
I think we are seeing a replay of 1974. The reason we got 1/2 is because they know if we get more inflation they won't be able to help.... Much. Maybe stave off some market crashes. See, we aren't the number one economic power any more. so the inflation is imported, we will have to take the entire world down with us.
It's not inflation unless: you drive a car, eat food, or buy stuff from asia. The more Chinese goods cost us will come strength out of the consumer. The fed is going to be very cautious about any more rate cuts.
Once we bottom, I'm not sure where to trade. 144 on the spy is my bottom target. I'll proly trade out at 143.... creeps me out to try and ride my short to there...... we will see a ton of resistance at 150-148, may even trade up.... it's all doable in 2 days... have to hit the curbs tomorrow though.... and watch out for the fed.
Oh, and the idea that anyone will pick up our CLO's and CDO's. the only ones stupid enough are the 3rd world and us, but we don't save anything. I bet a trade into banks would be smart their business should boom with the death of the "black market banks". Big pushes to get us to put money in our piggy banks soon... if not now.
M&A is dead.. but we will see over the next months.
if cramer calls this 1998 again, it makes me want to punch him... the lock up of credit, I think is the same. But this was brought on by our bad housing debt.
It's not Inflation if....
You don't drive a car.
Eat food.
or buy basic materials.
Oh......
With a weakening dollar, you can include "buy anything from asia"
Funny China doesn't realize that every tick the dollar goes down, is a Tick there prices go up.
Short china... They won't be able to afford to have the olympics.
This was the debate on "power lunch" today. I wanted to kiss Sue and Rick.
What a morning
When it looked like the S&P was going to set a new high today, my hands started shaking, and I kept reminding myself to control my emotion. And someone was talking about contrarian indicators.... Since then I'm just happy to be up more and more each minute... Or less down. Based on the research I did last night, we should trade back to the inverse of this rally. that is back down to 1439 or so. I'm not sure I can hold on that long, unless we start throwing the knife. but the stops will slow that down.
I looked into it because Cramer started talking about how "When the inflation bears start talking, and if the market backs off. Don't sell." and he is correct historically. within a month or 2 we will be back to the highs we set today.
After a rally going to all new highs, we will either go into a year of ups and down or a Bear market.. based on the numbers I've seen we are into one hell of a recession. and the fed only has a few points to give back... they only have 5 pts worth of Puts.
There is a year where we set a double top before the sell off of the "Fed Cut" Rally. Regardless we test the bottom, but I cold be screwing myself for not covering here. but most my down side has been up till now. what's another few hundred dollars....
The Bears here are being helped by people who don't want to give back there gains.... Then I bet they shit thinking that the bears are right inflation is going to get us and no one will ever buy a house again.
When I talk about this rally it's the one where we go from "Tightening" to "easing".. I haven't looked into the post first easing rally.
if any of this makes any sense.
My thesis on the fed move
I think they did what they could to help with this years resets on mortages and help make the credit market move. I think with the inflation it will tie their hands and the housing market will push us into recession... after we get to the Highs again.
With the over reaction we could still test the lows... I'd say after up 300 we could go down 600 based on history. I'm curious if the hedge funds will push us back down.
Weak dollar moves
Biggest exporters:
America Chung Nam- recycled paper exporter to china
Weyerhaeuser- WY
Du Pont- DD
Cargill
koch
international paper-ip
Dow Chemical-DOW
Exxon Mobil-xom
Meadwestvaco-mwv
CellMark
Importers
WalMart
Target
Home Depo
Sears
Dole
Lowes
Costco
Lg group
Philips electronics
chiquita
Fed Reversals since 1970-
Jan3-4, 2001(Fed-.5 - Discount-.5)(Recession)
6% - 1% from Jan 3, 2001-june 25, 2003
Market:dec 28 2000 the Dow opened 10795 from then till Jan 3rd the down traded down to 10367 (-428pts 3.9%) The dow rallied 11,224(7%) then 6 trading days later jan 12, 10339 Below the original drop. traded up 600 points in feb the dropped to 9500 in late march.
jan 31 1996 (Fed-1/4 - Discount 1/4)(Russian economic Crisis)
5%-4.75% Jan 31, 1996-nov 7 1998* discount rate went up +1/4 mar 25 1997.
Market: we traded up 120pts(2%) then back down 100 pts. on feb 2nd. Two trading days later. Then back up 200 pts(4%) over 6 trading days. Then traded within 200 pts for 1 years.
dec 18 1990 (fed -1/2)
7%-3% from dec 18 1990-july 2 1992
Market:traded up 50pts(2.3%) over 8 days traded up 11pts. Then pulled back 150 pts(7.5%), then back up 300pts over 2 months.
nov 21 1984 (-1/2)
9%-5.5% From nov 21 1984-aug 1986
Market: up 20pts (2%) then after 2 days back down 40 (4%) then back up 800pts(20%) over 2 months
oct 30 1981 (Fed -1 )
14%-8.5% From Oct 30 1981 - dec 15 1981
Market:40pts up then down 40 pts over then next 11 days
may 28 1980 (fed -1)
13%-10% from May 28 1980 -july 28 1980
Up ten pts then back down 20 then up 100
Dec 6 1974( fed -1/4)
8%-5 1/4% from dec 6, 1974 - nov 22, 1976
Looks to me like we pull back then trade up and then go choppy for a few years.
Working on a Rally
I'm working on not getting into the emotion of it... To be honest, The fed cut, My Bowels dropped out of my body.. I Mounted up and went out and got a beer and some wings... I try not to be an emotional eater... But shit!!!!
I didn't even wait for the market to close. Nor am I clear of my short. *showing even more Balls* and literally has my ass so fucking tight...
But, I'm just not sure, and I'm trying not to react to my emotions. and work on rational moves. Worst thing would be to be "On the Ropes" and emotionally chasing every move for the next week, and lose even more money....
The good move is gold, but on a market pullback
Freeport
Harmony
Yammana
GSS
or copper platinum mining.
I want to hear some bad news before the open today. I'll come up with a good stop today
do some research on fed moves and the stock market.
Futures are pulling back. 44 an hour ago, 41 a half hour ago, and 36 a bit ago.
S&p was up 6 and is now up 3...
Just a little bad news and we will hopefully see some profit taking... which can turn into fear.
more on the Fed. and probably my thoughts on inflation later.
Tuesday, September 18, 2007
game on... I guess.
good stuff. I'm excited for the day... but I didn't get much sleep. I'm tempted by a morning nap when I can get it. Irregular naps are the bane of my existence. I'm used to the 2pm to 4pm nap. but the other naps mess with me... Enough about the Naps....
What we have is consolidation on the S&P, which is leading up to today...
The 50 day moving average is about 148.10, which is about the close/open. And Declining
and the 200 day is about 146.2 I would expect that a .25 rate cut to bounce off the 146.2 level.
Sure the s&p may look like it's coming up... but the Russel 2k and every other indici is breaking down... this is not a good sign IMHO.
Monday, September 17, 2007
Recap
Hey, I'm sorry. I haven't even figured out where we were. I wasn't feeling well this morning. The futures were down.
The original game plan was to sell strength today or tomorrow. after the futures not only sold down, but then traded down for the first hour of the market.. I had to go short.. Unfortunately the trend reversed till the end of the day, when it reversed again.. The overall 2 day trend is down. Probably the same tomorrow. Good news is "Reality" is setting in on wallstreet, you just can't trade up on bad news forever. The financials are only slightly down off of the S&P, but they are a significant part of the S&P... Sure... With strength in the Semi's and weakness in the Russell 2000... I just had to get short again. Sure I could have gone short later in the day cheaper.... The sellers are in control, and are just Toying with the Bulls. I'm not sure where we are going.. but it felt like the smart money realized we were going to get beatings this week, and couldn't wait for it to start.
After the close, tons of the financial stocks are posting early bad guidance... it's not good. and the market is starting to clue into the fact we are going down, rate cut or not. a relative 2% correction in the financials is not enough... I'm surprised we couldn't' touch 150 on the spy. and I'm not sure where to get out.... going to have to figure that out later.
Point is, very tired... market in for a beating this week. and if the fed doesn't cut rates we is going to hell....
Also finally we are getting some of the bear catch 22.... if we get a .5 cut, then every one will be afraid. if we get .25 we will be disappointed. and nothing...... going to hell..... Finally people are cluing into "we have been trading up on bad news... that has to end"
Erin Burnett.... calling for a 3/4 cut.
Morning...
I don't even want to talk about investments... I think by talking about them I"m cursing them... I'm not superstitious.. but I'm going to stick with it. I was feeling or am feeling a little ill today... sinus infection I believe. Either that or polio...
CRAZY SHIT TODAY. it's like it takes a few days for things to get through to the bulls heads. it's been a week since the jobs data. The consumer is slowing down. Bank run in England. but all of this was going on on Friday.. but now today, I guess after the weekend it seems like its setting in. Of course Erin Burnett still thinks everything is great and it's a buying opportunity.... Dyllan ratigain crying or Erin Burnett having a fit. That is the Bottom....
I was sure we were dumb enough to go up for a few more days... even this entire week. but this mornings slowness makes me want to place a bet.... And I'm in this bet for a few weeks... Ya... I'm betting the down side.
Mark Hains said "I think we are in for a crash"
A lot of bearishness out there this morning... which isn't reflected in the market. They will start calling for a 3/4 or 1 pt cut... which ain't going to happen....
O.J. going to jail..... Ya, that fucker is crazy, Lock him up. and yes the glove was planted. but it was his glove.
Sunday, September 16, 2007
Weekend work on the Game Plan
My numerous thoughts....
I've been trying to convince myself that they aren't going to cut.... that is just a ballsy move. To mitigate that risk I could wait till it comes out. throw money at a short then.
But, I think we will get a cut.. not a 50 but a 25., The discount window rate cut was a temporary cut to give the fed 30 days (which was why the limit to 30 days was extended).
Theoretically the S&P is going to Rip, the financials, and gold.... That is the speculation.
The R2K is breaking down,
I also think that the q's and the nas are breaking down.... That and that the bulls are starting to talk about the breakdown of technology.... Which I said a week ago...
The questions are What is "The street" going to do.... and how do I game it.
The bulls are going to just buy buy buy... buy financials buy the s&p, After a good run, the bears will make a stand......
The bulls think this will save them... but it's going to save them in 6 months
hmmm.. More later.
Friday, September 14, 2007
Working on getting out of town
I'm hoping for a good sell off this afternoon and get out of this short.
always hard know which side of your gut you should listen to......
but this market want's to believe it's a Bull.... Can't fight the tape.... and if we go low enough I may make a little cash....
I have to remember, it's not what I think will happen, it's what I think the knuckleheads will do.
WWKHD
interesting consolidation this afternoon.... I bet we are going up..... Why would someone want to hold stocks over this weekend....
Right? i'm shorting Midcap 400.... so I look into it today... Lots of good stocks there..... Tyson, some energy names..... no wonder it's so solid...
Really, I need to get out.... even if I do and we test the bottom on Monday... I can grab it on the way up...
I suspect Erin Burnett Google blog searched her name... I feel bad about being nasty... Here is a note about what irritates me... if you hype up a bad market, it makes it come down harder... I'm just saying be a journalist. Be impartial as best as you can.... set up the bulls and the bears and let them fight it out, and ask questions... that's what you should do.... What if this market is ready for a 30% drop over the next 3 months.... She is super cute, and will get a better hang of it...... I'm just giving her the tough love.... Baby!!!!!
Ok here is the deal, if we trade down to below the open, I'm staying short... Else I'll clear my short.
BTW Guy Adami stold my trade today... wait for the financials to tank, then buy Goldman on the dip. as opposed to all the people who picked it up now that it's hyped today..
Stocks of the day.
Monsanto- MON- better living with GMO crops
PG&E- california power
Garmin- (GRMN) Garmin Kicks ass.
On a down morning, that is recovering...
Getting killed:
Conglomerates-0.67%
- Most Actives (dollar volume)
General Electric Company GE
40.35-0.16 (-0.39%) 413.43B
United Technologies Corp. UTX
75.83+0.81 (1.08%) 75.21B
Raytheon Company RTN
62.46+0.12 (0.19%) 27.32B
3M Company MMM
89.04-0.05 (-0.06%) 63.74B
Tyco International Ltd. TYC
43.86+0.28 (0.64%) 21.80B
Financial-0.64%
- Most Actives (dollar volume)
- S&P 500 Index - "Spiders" SPY
148.52-0.39 (-0.26%) 64.05B - PowerShares QQQ Trust, QQQQ
49.11-0.07 (-0.14%) 21.69B - Diamonds Trust, Series 1 DIA
134.13-0.17 (-0.13%) 7.17B - Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. GS
186.95-1.52 (-0.81%) 75.84B - Countrywide Financial CFC
19.49+0.56 (2.96%) 11.23B
- Most Actives (dollar volume)
Shire plc (ADR)
SHPGY
69.74
-3.76 (-5.12%)
12.99B
Pfizer Inc.
PFE
24.15
-0.08 (-0.33%)
167.29B
Johnson & Johnson
JNJ
62.95
-0.16 (-0.25%)
182.21B
Amgen, Inc.
AMGN
56.59
-0.53 (-0.93%)
61.50B
Genentech, Inc.
DNA
Least Losers are....
Cons. Cyclical+0.01%
- Gainers (% price change)Last TradeChangeMkt Cap
Syntax-Brillian Corp. BRLC
4.20+0.19 (4.74%) 359.11M
Shamir Optical Industry SHMR
12.07+0.32 (2.72%) 196.22M - Spartan Motors, Inc. SPAR
16.75+0.43 (2.63%) 546.82M - Unifi, Inc. UFI
- 2.14+0.05 (2.39%) 129.56M
Golfsmith Intl Hldgs, GOLF
7.01+0.16 (2.34%) 110.55M
- Gainers
- Suez SA (ADR) SZE
54.05+1.45 (2.76%) 68.39B - Energen Corporation EGN
56.39+1.26 (2.29%) 4.05B - CPFL Energia S.A. (ADR) CPL
52.43+1.01 (1.96%) 8.38B - PG&E Corporation PCG
46.42+0.88 (1.93%) 16.40B - Companhia Paranaense de ELP
16.85+0.30 (1.81%) 4.61B
Basic Materials-0.22%
- Gainers
- Georgia Gulf Corporation GGC
14.93 +0.84 (5.96%) 513.54M
Gammon Gold, Inc. GRS
9.65+0.47 (5.12%) 1.13B
Miramar Mining Corp (USA) MNG
4.79+0.16 (3.46%) 1.06B
Ivanhoe Mines Ltd. (USA) IVN
10.50+0.33 (3.24%) 3.94B - Vista Gold Corp. VGZ
- 4.93+0.15 (3.14%) 158.47M
The Rest:
Cons. Non-Cyclical-0.23%
Transportation-0.37%
Energy-0.38%
Services-0.32%
Technology-0.55%
Capital Goods-0.56%
It puts the lotion in the basket
I'm worried about Brian Shannon. I vote, compleate nut and bad actor...er actress... Something...
Morning Thesis:
I drool at the Negative 67 futures.... and let me get the over under on the retail sales numbers. Bad number means 50 fed cut and off to the races, good number means off to the races... I think I've realized why markets crash, at one point the bullshit just get's so high. If we can get rid of all the bad numbers, then "off to the races"... Why does this thinking work?
Ok, I'm spooked, with the fed cut looming I'm hoping we test the bottom today, not sure if we have time to get down there by tuesday.
Morning Gameplan:
here is the deal, if we hit where I purchased the second lot of mzz I'll set a follow stop, Currently I have a limit past that. That second purchase was SO FUCKING STUPID.
RETAIL NUMBERS
So.... ouch.. Retail numbers expectations were Up .4%
Excluded auto's expectations were up .2%
We got up .3%
Ex Auto's down .4%
interesting thing with auto's being stronger than expected, and other retail being significantly weaker...
LOL after same store sales numbers We were suprised how bad this was. See the numbers were downgraided... so better than expected.
CONSUMER STARTING TO SLOW DOWN...
Worst thing is this does increase the chance of the fed cut I was betting against....
I say .25
Thursday, September 13, 2007
Killing it today:
Basic materials.
URZ- 3.54 +0.34 (10.62%)
Uranerz Energy Corporation (Uranerz) is an exploration-stage company engaged in the acquisition, exploration, and if warranted, development of uranium properties. The Company owns interests in properties in Wyoming, United States of America; Saskatchewan, Canada, and Mongolia. Uranerz has entered into joint venture agreements for each of its Saskatchewan and Mongolia properties, whereby the joint venture partner for each property can earn an ownership interest in the property. The Company has also joint ventured its uranium projects in the Great Divide Basin area of Wyoming. As of January 9, 2006, Uranerz owns one subsidiary, which is a Mongolian limited liability company with the name Rolling Hills Resources, LLC. The Company’s Mongolian exploration licenses are held in the name of its subsidiary company
URRE 8.18 +0.71 (9.50%)
Uranium Resources, Inc. (URI) is primarily engaged in the business of acquiring, exploring, developing and mining uranium properties using the in situ recovery (ISR) or solution mining process. As of March 30, 2006, URI owned producing and undeveloped uranium properties in South Texas and undeveloped uranium properties in New Mexico. In South Texas, the Company's properties are Kingsville Dome, Rosita and Vasquez. In New Mexico, its properties are Churchrock, Crownpoint, Nose Rock, West Largo and Roca Honda.
BGC 61.83 +4.81 (8.44%) General Cable Corp
MDM 4.76 +0.33 (7.45%) Mountain Province
Augusta Resource Corp. AZC 2.27 +0.15 (7.08%)
these are the most mixed up
I'm still rooting for 1500 on the S&p
Why the hell not at this point......
This is why I've been hanging on.... Besides go short, I don't have a game plan... I would have gone short yesterday and this morning....
it would have been nice to miss the past 3 pts....
I may cover if we cant roll back to 1470 once we roll over.... Funny thing is... I'm still about even...
I just don't want to fucking lose......
Not like anyone is reading this anyways....
And not like I fucking answer to you anyways..
I may go run.....
Up next on CNBC
Recession good for the economy........
$80 oil
increasing unemployment
Job's down.
but we will get a .25 rate cut.....
I'm all about "Glass half full"... but are you kidding me... This reminds me of July.
but bad news trading up is defiantly bullish for the market......
I was up after yesterday.... Now I'll be even again.....
I want to buy something for my yard to beat the hell out of with a baseball bat.
1481.49 on the s&p
2620.8 on the Nas
13398.54 on the Dow...
and that is still a lower high....
This market is bearish.....
Com'on I want to see the elevator today...
at least we ain't trading in that confined range....
BTW why is the NASDAQ trading at 2000
I never pay attention is it some special CNBC NASDAQ....
alot of giddy bulls out there..... the Contrarian says...
I've been saying this for fucking days.......
Wednesday, September 12, 2007
good lord
I so believe my Thesis. There are just a lot of bulls out there that don't want to accept that we are in trouble.
Horrible things going on.
Oil at $80
Lower metal prices.
Wheat at some ridiculous $9
when you look at some commodities prices you think we are looking at the great depression. In fact I'm tempted to go out and buy 2 years of Wheat...... "Just in Case"... I make a mean loaf of bread.
When I was going to cut my losses today. I realize how close we were to some real resistance. The fact that it seems harder to test the 10 day high than it is to test the 10 day low, has to kill the bulls as bad as it kills me not to test the lows.
We seem to be consolidating between the 50 ma and the 200ma Which is killing me to watch. If I were liquid, I'd wait for the breakout which would be easier. We are absolutely waiting to explode...
When I'm not gambling heavily with my money with mother market, I spend my time Upgrading networks.... The best move in tech right now is to update hardware... and not desktops. The network backbone the Routers, switches, Network cards, Faster Servers.... These things are able to be upgraded.... Meaning that the technology is sufficient to make cost justifiable upgrades to the network hardware....
But the software, and the desktops.... Well any self respecting I.T. person knows we are stuck in the technology of the past 5 years... Besides doing pointless upgrades for moron clients, literally sucking them dry... That stuff goes nowhere.
So, watch out in this tech upgrade, to avoid the non Network Hardware names. I also think that besides the orders that are coming in in these first few week(I.E. the Intel upgrade), that sector is going to be weak. And to lump the semiconductors in consumer electronics into that trade is silly, when the consumer will be weak this X-Mas.
The nitty gritty of it is that.... with weakening Basic materials plays, about half if not 75% of the tech play being bogus. The Employment numbers being weak. High Oil prices. Everything except 'The Rate cut" being in the Bear's favor.
With paulson, talking about how the "economy is strong", and how the housing thing is minor...(sure he could Lying, just to not panic the market).
With the metals and materials falling, that means the only good Bull market in this market is falling apart.......
I don't know what to say beyond this.....
I'm thinking about going for wings and beer for dinner.....
Been saying it for 2 days
But if we can't make a new high soon, we are about to reverse.... I'd buy the reverse spy when the spy hits 147.6
Alright, on the ropes but lets get this shit back ON!!!!!
The bad news... I'm down a little the first batch of Mzz is at 55.05 the other is at 57.23... so at 56.10 i'm down. I'm down .16 on 280 shares. Shit that's $44.... could lose that at the track........ and what's another few bucks........
As bullish as you assholes are, and the futures being down this morning...... 33 pts.....
Just a brief aside:
Eddie Scrap-Iron Dupris:
Boxing is an unnatural act. Cos everything in it is backwards. You wanna move to
the left, you don't step left, you push on the right toe. To move right, you use
your left toe. Instead of running from the pain - like a sane person would do,
you step into it.
What I'm saying is somtimes you have to move
counter to the momentm to get ahead of the move.
I think that yesterday only an asshole wanted to "short" on 9-11. So the Buyers had their way. I'm hoping for a big counter move today.....
Looks like all the Bears were run into the Sea...... as opposed to when we had all the bulls off the cliff.... but that's reason to look for the Counter move....
We just bairley tested the 2 week lows... worst employment in 4 years and we can't even test the 4 week lows...... I Do NOT Believe it..... I want to hear mark Haines say "Why do we have to test the lows?" and shake his head.
We are down 34 pts in the pre market.......
Any 105 IQ idiot can see that we have been doing a big dip then slowly trading up for a few days setting a higher high, and a Higher low, if Mother market were that easy...... But we set a lower low last time. it's time for a lower high.... which means we fall short of 13,460 and set a lower low.
Tuesday, September 11, 2007
*&#E*#%()( #(#@@ *$%$
Shit fuck .......*#%R(#
So, I'm GD Even Now........... Best damn trade I've had in a month............ Now I'm even...... I want to take a baseball bat to my desk....
got jerked around all day with some Trailer trash moron who thinks I can do a job for $50.... I have to call some other asshole right now and tell him, No on his job.......
Have I pissed Nails yet... Worst Jobs numbers in 4 years, and all we do is lightly test the 2 week Lows...... We should have scraped our nuts on them at least.........
Have to explain to some asshole why I don't want to do his job....
Cause I don't work for free asshole.
Listen assholes Helicopter ben is going to move to neutral, and cut the discount rate.....
and we are just going to trade to new highs in gold and on the DJIA and the S&P..... Cause Everything is fine..........
Can you tell I need some sleep......
7pm I've been at it since 2am.....
WTF do I have to call somone and tell them I'm not doing a job, I didn't agree to do.
Balls of steel
Overall I'm up right now..... One would think I'd cash out and call it a win.... Why am I not doing this???
I thought we were going to go up for a few days... but the crystal ball is starting to doubt it....
I'm so sick of eeking out small gains....
Fuck this shit. going for broke
(not really)
I'm saying a full on reversal today and test the lows tomorrow......
that and I have a meeting for the rest of the day.... and we are too volatile to put in stops that I'd be happy with......
If I learn a lesson, I hope I learn it...
I'm getting nautous
is it the BearClaw.. or all the coffee.......
could be that all the indicators are showing bull and I'm holding my ground.... WTF would you run 150pts today........
I'm just hoping Helicopter Ben starts talking about the stock market like it's his personal pinata...
Words like "Inflation"
"stagflation"
"reprice risk"
"Fuck you Cramer"
The Q's a laggard earlier are leading...
and the R2K which was leading is now the laggard.....
Common lose some wind from your sails......
......
this morning's gut check
Brought to you by a chocolate doughnut....
I'm desperate, and need it to get through this morning's gut check. Balls in hand this morning. I'd like the futures to get into the 30's then repeat what it did yesterday..... Proly won't happen.
If you want an indication of financial armageddon.... News Corp/Fox Going Green...
Snake guards shoes
Further update... I have a bear claw for the morning bell..... Why are doughnuts as big as my head now?.....
I'm still betting down.... Hopefully a test of the top then a test of the bottom..... figure out which way we will go......
Morning thesis.... With a 14 pt up on the close, the "White picket Fence Crowd"(people who put in orders over night) are pushing stocks higher... with a small run... once again "Fead to The Bears".... 30 pts up makes me smile 50 makes my ass hurt.
Bad news if we break yesterdays high.... I think alot of shorts will cover and we may go higher and give the bulls control today...
Key thing to watch, IMHO is the financials if they run........ Could be trouble... I'll be watching them for leadership.
Comon Game on.... Let's do this.....
Game on, I guess
I swear, I just want some good sleep.... like 6 hours straight, at night....
Infosys ceo on tv talking about how hard it is to get talented I.T. People.
When companies want to pay 30K to people for what is a Really hard job, that requires tons of time keeping your skills sharp (30-40% of your time, time which most companies don't want to pay for.....) I'm wondering why they have a hard time finding people who want to work for them.... what does that translate to about $11 an hour.... Sweet baby...... You could just get a $12 an hour job instead. Even at 60K it's a sucky job for the most part, because you still have to do a ton of work for people who just arn't any good at their jobs.
Hitting a nerve here.
and I have a headache, soon to be relieved I hope.
it's to early to get doughnuts.... damn wallstrip and tim hortons making me want one of those delicious yummy things.......
If we test the Highs this morning, i'm having a stroke............. Pray to god we don't then gap higher, as all you assholes shit out of your "shorts"...........
going to need that dogunut......
Fuck this, let's ring the bell and get this game back on......
Late night PB&J
I don't think anyone in Europe watches Eruo CNBC. They miss the opening bell almost every morning... Other than that, I never have any idea what is going on with eruo stocks.
30 minutes ago thd DJIA futures were up 20 now down 5..... I was sweating the Up 20. I'd love a down 70 morning.
The Contrarian in me is a little freaked out, lots of people short out there.... and as much as I live and die by Brian. His reversal of opinion is usually a precursor to a reversal. he says down, it goes down for a day or 2 then goes up for 4-5 days. But I'm super aggressive.... and apparently high on the crack of my own ass this morning(AKA high on my own shit).
Fast money was talking a strong Bull last night, they were awfully shaky about it. Mostly about Goldman Sacks..... I wouldn't own that shit, with guy adami's money...
my point here actually was that they were awfully shaky about their calls for a bull market... which is unusual.
Someone shoot me when I start talking about the "magic of 7's"(I saw a Euro Technician, talk about how 1997 1987 translated into a 2007 stock market crash... apparently had something to do with 7's)
Failed moves, fast moves.... and the ascending VIX were why I added to my short Monday afternoon.
well the futures are up and down up 5, down 3.... Of course lots of stuff from now till morning.
Ok, my milk is gone, try and see if I can squeeze in a few more hours of zzzz's before the opening bell.
ooop Up 11 pts.....
Monday, September 10, 2007
More of the Squirrls in my head
More of the Squirrels in my head.
some of the commercial paper is up for renewal.... or something, this week(shows how much I know).
I'm curious if some of that frustration by the eruo's to get those Re-Upped(seriously, I have no idea what I'm talking about, but I do know that they get loans based on those assets). Isn't this what caused the Liquidity crisis weeks ago?
Interesting notes and Quotes:
- The gold Mining ETF (GDX) Was down .56% while gold was up .33% ...... the way I see it, the gdx fails if the market is in a bear trend In a bull trend it will double the gains of gold... I suspect that the people who piled into this trade will pile out either tomorrow or wed, if it doesn't work soon. I'm tempted to pile into that trade myself if I see the trend turn to BULL, it's much better than the Tech... That trade has been breaking down "In my opinion" RIMM was 86 last week, and got weak even before the downturn based on Jobs numbers(and jobs numbers speculation) happened.
- The Dow and the R2k traded a new 2 week low today. And the S&P failed to make it's bull run this afternoon.
- I heard this today " Oil would be $67 if the Dollar was worth anything."... I also heard "Why would the Saudis want to trade their precocious oil for a bunch of worthless Greenbacks"
Short position update
I've backed it up.... I think we just established a trading range... and are going to go scrape the bottom again....... maybe in the morning.... a down close would back up my shit a little bit... Like to see that red candle...........
I tried it earlier, but Dyllan singing to Maria disrupted my order.....
150 MZZ @ 57.23......
midday Crystal ball...
the morning strength wasn't enough for me to get short, which is good for the market. The smh, won't give up it's Cherry yet.... silly bastards thinking that the tech trade is going to save them.... Wish I had gone short the semi's this morning....
The IWM made a new 2 week low today. I'm worried we have a 3-5 day reversal...
I was thinking I wanted to see 2 or 3 failures today.... but I just checked the DJIA which failed at the 13035..... I still would like to see one more fail before I buy a short term reversal.......
if I get some late day weakness, I'll be looking to get out of my short positions.
Aparently on power lunch... they have a truth squad that is going to get to the bottom of this whole Recession thing..... Thank God!!! I've been waiting!!!
What does the magic 8ball say.....
Are you fucking High!!!!!
futures are up 50 pts now.....
My morning thesis.......
10,000 idiots are going ot jump in this morning.... Every idiot with a WSJ is going to jump in and "buy the dip" only to be eaten by afternoon Bears.
The tubbieest idiot in the world is on squaq box this morning... talking nonsence even kirnen can counter. They also need to say thing like.... "Ok, so you and your firm are going to put 20 million into play this morning.... Right?... You are actually buying this dip"
I'm totaly Freaked out, I have a bunch of money to put into play...... I'm going to play the fast money, wait for the knife and jump in .
The stregnth of the bull on this has been very impressive....... I think, I'm ready to take their money.....
Irish Nostradamas....
DJIA futures are down 22....
I'm defiantly looking for a down 60-100 day....
IMHO I'd love to short some real strength today..
We have to test 13041
if not 12884
or 12050.
The sane thing would be a failure of the 13041 with a bounce of 1 or 2 days.
The nutty thing would be a failed test of 13238 high Then we see another 300 pt down day..
or some up 25 days...... slow up trend like that may put me in gold mining.
The regular fed session is just short time away... the Fed is the biggest bear on the street, they don't give a shit. as long as cash flows they are happy. Other thing I don't get, is that if it's not for the fed to bail out "The Market" then what about the economy.... it's not their job to bail out a bunch of working folk, trying to feed their babies..... and for that matter what is the point in stopping bank runs... it's what you assholes get for not hording gold under your pillow..... Assholes.
my broader non sarcastic point is they will do nothing till the meeting... and who knows what they will do then.... I may move to cash or euro's
Sunday, September 9, 2007
my run
the things I heard out on my run, the deep conversations people have between themselves out on a running path...
"how to get a 3-4% bond return."
"layoffs in the office."
talk about some empirical evidence, course it's just a bunch of empirical horseshit...
to many endorphins to worry about "Mother market", haven't felt this good in a week.
Pttttttttt
Saturday, September 8, 2007
New CNBC show
I have an idea for a new CNBC show.... It's called "What would you put your 60 year old mother into" Besides Bonds..
This struck me when some grandmother called into CNBC worried in the last sell of, and CNBC prided themselves in calming her down.... Little did she know she needed to sell off in the next rally.......
You can guarantee that that retiree is still long this market.
Sure they give Cramer a warning.... but what they need is a disclaimer every 30 minutes......
TALKING HEADS ON CNBC are Neither Journilists, nor ECONOMISTS. They are mostly full of shit....
Maybe just a Crawler.......
Friday, September 7, 2007
The way this works---- The R word
besides the Dylan Ratigan and Erin Burnett rallies....
First it's housing, (Check)
Then it's Auto's (Check)
Big Ticket items are next.... (technology)
Capital expenditures....... (technology)
then Real discretionary spending... Restaurants, CeeziePoofs....
Part of my point is that I'm thinking the Semi-conductors are going to fail, and this lame Tech trade is going to fail. Maybe it's just falling because people are taking profits........
Another thing that makes me nervous about playing the rallies is that they are going to be shorter and shorter....
at least that is how it plays out where the squirrels in my head do the little laps on the wheel
Erin Burnett continues to try and convince me to drop money into a falling market. GrandMothers everywhere who are dropping their life savings into that shit, thank you......
Even Kudlo is hoping for a "Soft" landing... Mr. Bull is saying Recession..... She needs to remember she is a journalist, and impartial.... Being a Bull is only going to hurt people.......
When Dyllan Cries... That is the bottom.
The Hedgies taking it in the ass
These basic materials are taking it in the ass today.... when this trend is over I'll be looking to Cherry pick.....
alcoa AA
cat= CAT
General cable BGC
anglo american plc AAUK
Posco PKX
companhia vale do.......RIO
allegheny tech ATI
USSteel X
potash corp POT
Freeport Mcmoran FCX
yamana gold -auy
foster Wheeler -fwlt
I suspect the reversal of this down trend on tuesday or wed.
We have to test one of the two lows... if we test the one from last week on monday... then we may test the other. on tuesday or wed.....
but there is many a slip between cup and a lip.
because I'm coining money today......
gold and gold minors will fail in then next few days..... at one point people are going to have to cut losses.
Safety Stocks-
consumer non-cyclical
How about some Beer chicken and Grain for your recession....
PMID Pyramid Breweries P/E 84.13-Beer
Molson Coors-TAP p/e 18.61-beer
general mills-gis pe 20.15-Grains
b&G foods. BGS P/E 26.33- Grains
tyson foods-TSN P/E 37.17- Chicken
Physicians Formula Holdings inc. -FACE Generic cosmetics via wallmart and target
Health care
ARTL The Aristotle Corporation with a P/E 13.37 Educational Bio med equipment
AMS American Shared Hospital Services P/E 17.51 Gama Knife services.....
Gold
I'd stay out of this shit...... let the market crash then come into gold....
The Gold miners index. should trade at 2x the gold. so the miners are lagging today... this shows weakness....
Utilities...
Utilities are for old people.
I'm new to being a Bear
Realy, I'm just trying to advance the process of shaking out this market so that we can get back to buisness as usual.
More of the fed cut bullshit..... funny how cnbc can't figure this out. If we get some cuts, we will be on the way to a bull market.
Hopefully they will clue into the fact that trading seems to happen on momentum and news.
Also funny was that estimates were 130 for jobs and now its 112......
and let me explain this gatoraid light..... Gatorade was manufactured for the florida gators for football. to play football you need electrolites and calories...... sometimes you don't need calories and just need the electrolites. which is where a gatorade light comes in.
LOL, now I hear that a 40-50 number is baked into the market.....
Thursday, September 6, 2007
damn.... couldn't get a new short position in before the bell. Even Baby Hughey(macke) couldn't make a claim that the retail numbers were good.(yes they guided down into an Upside suprise).
That reality, and the Manufacturing data, would have brought the market down.
Just remember the Bears didn't suck you into todays trap.... all the damn bullshiters did.
Shoes to drop....
big ticket items
aparently media will be next.
It's funny how crazy CNBC is... spend the day talking about how good the economy, and now it's "in the economic turn down, what else will be hurt."
My pick a few days of GSS ripped with the rest of gold today...... I'd sell.
I just got a giggle
Just heard this.......
"I think the economy is strong, and this problem with the Credit Cards is overdone"
Nice....
She is long Retail.....
Premarket
My Bear indicator on the R2k shut off... but none of my Bull indicators have hit yet.....
Where is my coffee, it's game on...
early morning strength is fading... only thing hanging on is the semiconductors....
well, see, basic materials is the only decent bull play, that and maybe some noncyclical consumer goods. and health care..... and this lamp.... and my bathrobe.... and the TV changer....
back to my point.... it's still all momentum. but if the market was rational....
Damn there was some defence by the bulls..... not looking good for you though.....
Funny, I have bear indicators for stocks. and it's like a zoo here.
here is my Bear story and I'm sticking to it
Retail in wallmart and target indicate a movement toward discount shopping for the market....
Who the hell is going to tell their kids they can't have new clothing for their kids.
Comon' bring it on, ready for that opening bell....
fucking gold is going to run today.....
get ready to put on the gold 700 hats...
Squawk box
Good to see that the Bush administration sent some Shill to try and keep the market calm this morning....
fairly minor change to jobless claims....
damn maybe my bear story is wrong.....
and fucking gold is threatening $700
get my shit checked this morning.
I'm not going to have to back up the truck today, am I?
Morning
I have yet to read the papers...
another way to look at someone who is talking, if they are short.... they are defiantly against a "Rate Cut"
My technical analysis. we are looking weak, with Technology bringing the ship down, and there is still room for the semi(SMH) to come down to the 37.90 level.
I gave out a little giggle as the R2k(IWM) held up the market seems like death below 78.34
Seems like the QQQQ is good down to 48.78
Maybe a hole below 147 on the spy... it wouldn't surprise me for it to not Leg down.
WTF is this commercial... Give Lincoln financial your money and then you can raise Goat Cheese.........
I'm telling you the employment numbers will be death. 10 eastern.... oooohhh jobless claims in an hour...... I'm like a nervous bride.....
Earnings today:
Campbel soup
Car mart
Fleetwood FLE
Hovanian HOV
Jackson Hewitt JTX
Sco group SCOX... If I had any balls I'd Short these idiots to death.
p.s. what the hell is wrong with the font now in blogger.
Wednesday, September 5, 2007
Why are you so up in arms against the CNBC Talking Heads...
A few weeks ago, as Dyllan Ratagain was trying to Calm down the market in the days before one of the larger sell offs. It struck me... "He is trying to manipulate the market, Trying to stop people from panicking... I wondered "What if he is Wrong?". Then in the next few days as the market sold off..... I was like, These assholes are just "talking their book". It occur ed to me that these guys have no journalistic background, and what a disservice they are doing always being a ChearLeader for the Bull market.
Weeks ago I didn't read the market as well as I feel like I do now(to my own hubris). At that point I realized how full of shit these people were, how they are the "Slow Money". And the shit they can't figure out is the fast money.... The people who realize that declining Real Estate means Recession. With 90% of peoples wealth being tied up in real estate a 10-20% loss is a killer, add to that the losses to inflation as they pay more interest than they get as a return on their investment..... ITS A MARKET KILLING EVENT. The market banged up against that 150SPY and the Smart money just KILLED IT.
So, if you noticed... the Fast money five were very bearish... giving only a small head nod to some of the Heath Care names....
Ya! they are the fast money... in the next days the slow money pays.... Then the Buy and HOLDS take it in the ass.
As CNBC hits the constant drum beat of "correction" and "Buy The Dips" and "Sub-prime"
The issue isn't sub-prime any more, it's a real estate bubble.
Course Mother Market will probably show me...
But I'll hold strong with my "Up Periscope, we are going Down"
Erin Burnett....
WHAT THE FUCK ARE YOU TALKING ABOUT!!!!!!!!
If the economy is your closet, and the stock market is your suit jacket..... and the closet burns down, and all you have left is the one on your back..... isn't that a problem....
If you could stop talking.... Umn Ya, that would be great....
Weakness in tech
and apple and a few other market favorites tells me that the Hedge funds are taking it in the ass, and are covering losses again....
Somewhere under 147 we test the last sell off. I want to see us stay about here and keep selling off tomorrow... But the institutions will step in soon.....
Hi!! I'm erin burnette
Yet again they restate the lame theory that subprime is minor in the economy...
Cept that it's driving real-estate down.
Things not talked about.
Loss of 5-25% of U.S. Capital tied up in housing... Ya the subprime is small, but the value of real estate is huge....
Here come the Curbs!!!!!
I'm more psyched about a slow decline, than a panic.
Someone mentioned Denial as a crashing indicator.
I want to see Dyllan Ratigain cry..... That is a bottom and that perma bear Herb Greenburg Jizz all over Erin Burnette.... That is a Bottom.....
Dog day
I'm in cash now... Ugh... bad tape.. Wish I had gotten out earlier. I'm just waiting for the knife....
Look at Garmin go GRMN.....
Trying to decide if I play my book and go short........we may see some rally before the book comes out...
Trains leaving all the time......
Alright market...... FUCKING DIE!!!!! I'm short, and need to send some money to the broker.
Fucktarded Bulls
Bunch of stupid motherfuckers. Bunch of Ra Ra bullshit, as overnight the market hands you your fucking shirt. Foolishly I'm in it with you...... I could bolt with a minor gain..... I'm hoping for some stregnth this morning.......
Joe Keirnen, you can see is sweating bullets..... Fucking delusional bulls... This market is going to tank.... I'm just praying not this morning.....
I have to keep better track of the comming data..... How the hell does a kick ass day come right before we get our teeth kicked in on employment.
Comon stupid fucks, shake this off and shove your heads up your asses...... Lets see some stregnth.
bunch of morons think that when you bleed off Trillions in home value, it's not going to move to the rest of the market....... Com'on stupid buy!!!!!!!!!
My current Thesis
My Homegame is this:
once momentem is established this morning, I'll follow an uptrend with a very tight stop. If a downtrend starts the morning, I'll sell ASAP.
Somewhere I read a story about cleavland Real Estate being down 10% ... Like those assholes were Realestate speculators.... People are losing a years worth of wages... but that won't cause a recession. Worse is that they will pay interest on a years worth of wages for 30 years. $200 some odd bucks a month down the toilet.
apple will give us a full screeen ipod... using the display from the iphone.... if it can download off wireless internet, go bull..... if it's just a big screen ipod, BEAR.
Go long the display MFG of that fucking POS...
Fast Money is Lame!!!
Once Bolling got short, I never wanted to watch.......
If CNBC is stupid enough not to give that guy everything he asks for, I'm short CNBC.... I've been trying to not have it on, or be watching Bloomberg, But as much as I hate Murdock, I'll defiantly give the new Fox Dow channel its opportunity to win me over.
Let me just get back to my point about how much I hate FastMoney.......
Let Me sum up what happened last night....
Baby Hughey is Short Airlines, Gap, and some other Retail, and is very angry about something, and will interrupt everyone who is talking to say the opposite.
Listen you look less and less like Mr. Clean and More and more like a fucking M&M. Just because you talk louder and faster than someone, doesn't mean you won the argument. If that is all you have is an ability to shout people down... Your probably both wrong, and you lost.
Captain Nut tickler- has some fucking random ass stock that somone has december calls on.... and it will probably get a buy out, but your holding it for the next 4 months.... Oh, and sign up for option monster. Oh.... and he is LONG FOOTBALL!!!!!
The Italian Meatball... He is buying everything.... And Loves Maria Bartolomo.
The Chairwoman..... I don't actually have anything bad to say about Karen Feineman.... I would give her my money to invest, but... it's just a matter of time before she get's sick of being talked over by Baby Hughey, as she is actually trying to speak in Paragraph format.
My special dislike for the guy with the Grey sperm Pompadour(Chairman), who on every dip in the past 8 weeks has called it a buying opportunity.... Only with your money buddy.
Point is....... If you don't tell me Why you like or don't like a stock.... Your WAISTING MY MOTHERFUCKING TIME!!!!!
Currently I'm Short FastMoney, Jeff Mackey, Guy Adami.
If Bolling moves to FOX.... I'm short CNBC... they just don't realize what they had or gave up for the a Stock Circle Jerk... in a "Man Cave"
I'm short "Man Cave" too.
