Financial history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes. You can't be stupid enough to trade off anything I say.... I'm lucky they let me out of the straight-jacket long enough to trade.

J. P. Morgan

"Sell down to your sleeping point"

Wednesday, March 10, 2010

Q Factor, and some Charts.. And the usual Bullshit.

I'm still working on increasing the Q factor in my life, I'm trying to get "Real Work" done while, watching the market bullshit, trying to keep track of the "macro... nonsense".

I have done a ton of charts, for this blog, over the past few days. Been fairly straight forward. I'm not psyched about reading back through the past few days, to make sure my cognitive dissonance, isn't getting the best of me.
My goal is to update you on the technicals, I feel like i've been off on sentiment... I suspect I warned you a few sessions back. The other thing is that, there is a combination of "technicals" and the sentiment. I'm very positive, that I have warned about the Technicals. That is what I'm here to do again. The Tuesday Sell off, was just a pull back from the old highs.... That is all you can take it as. When I do wave counts, I have the end of Wave 3. Like I say, I've spent my entire time in EWT, waiting for a Final wave.

We have this large Wedge, off of this "Wave 3", The normal game is to Watch the breakout, and see what happens, See how much conviction there is on the sell side. This suggests we might get a "Down Bar" on the Daily. I've said that before, and been wrong.

Here is the Vic2 B, off of "Wave 3". Now all this is, is a Pullback, off of the old highs. They had a target of the old highs, it sells off, and then we see if we can push above it. This is the same Fucking Game we have played at ever one of the "old Highs", Will it be different this time? Your guess is as good as mine. My point is that there is nothing remarkable about the sell off.

For the past few days, the question has been "When will the rotation start, out of them", I suggested that it would start last friday, and that this was the start of a 4 day or 6 day, rotation out of them. There has been slight rotation, But I think that I can say, Based on pure Technicals, that the rotation should be starting now, I expect "Some kind of final top" in the next 3 days, this also matches my Pivot of Friday or monday.

There is certainly a chance that Tuesday was it. Honestly it's the 'Double Top' randancing, that has me, I just refuse to do it. I could be wrong... I could miss some of the move this time. I'm not ready to get aggressive with this yet. But the indicators I have now say "It has started", but not quite finished. and this sort of matches my Wave 4 into our final Top, in the next few days.

I'm just going to stick with it.

Honestly, I didn't watch the idiot box yesterday, and maybe the Cisco news had everyone everyone euphoric.

Through my contact with my clients, in the past few weeks. They were fairly optimistic last Fall. Sure there is some seasonality to it, but many of my clients, I talk to at the same time of the year. There are specific projects that happen right now, so the seasonality, should be normal in my sample.
But most of them are not optimistic. The question has been "Is this like 2004", and for Fuck Sakes.... I don't see it, I was thinking about 2004-2005, as far as I was concerned, those were Salad days.

All that seems to have happened, is that "Things were Nasty" and they picked up, but they still don't seem to be all that good. They aren't thinking about expansion, what they are thinking about, is trying to kick the can down the road, and keep things going....

Many of the projects I have been doing, deal with marketing. It seems like what they are interested in doing, is trying to get more work. Is that another part of the inventory restocking?

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