Financial history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes. You can't be stupid enough to trade off anything I say.... I'm lucky they let me out of the straight-jacket long enough to trade.

J. P. Morgan

"Sell down to your sleeping point"

Monday, March 8, 2010

Grain of salt.

For some reason, I'm feeling Lousy right now. It's spring, and I'm trying to get back from being a winter Lump of Shit.

  • Work Stress
  • Trading Stress
  • Life Stress
  • managed Diet.
Historically I'm a very fit guy, and through this, Trading crap, this has changed, I decided either my health had to change, or I had to quit this nonsense. The Quality of my life has not gone up in the past years, shall we say. So, I'm forcing things to the breaking point... and we are going to see what gives. Lets hope that trading becomes more manageable, or not and I just find some kind of Satisfaction with Life, either in or out of trading.

So, with that "caveat emptor" in place. This is what I have to say. I see very meager "Sell" indicators. Short Term... I'll say exactly what everyone else says, we are overbought.
  • Things are at their Bollinger bands
  • I have some Wave counts that look "Good", maybe not great, but good for a top. This just means that in the Bullshit world of EWT, this could be it, or we Extend.

The top 2, Above are good for an intermediate reversal, and oversold short term. They are the Vix, Daily and intra-day. Plenty of your usual oscillators, and indicators short term "OverCooked"

We will see how it trades, but.... I don't yet have a Clean MACD on all Time Frames(75% are in MACD divergence). I don't see a Reversal pattern yet. "Maybe" a left shoulder... This isn't a bad "Wave 5"... I hate Wave 2.
I'd add the Utilities, That they are Performing, and not under-performing. Doesn't seem Like a good sign.

As much as YOU MAY THINK, I'M SELLING YOU ON THE BEAR CASE, I'M NOT!

I point this stuff out, NOT AS CONFIRMATION BIAS, as you may perceive but as, the only bearish "HINTS" I can find.
  • Sure, short term overbought, but
  • statistical objective Sentiments are not Optimistic IIAA Etc.. but I will also say that these come out early to mid week. And are not reliable "Daily", and we may see something very different when they come out, but they do not point to even a moderate bear case.
  • I'm not seeing Weakening Breadth, or the usual divergences, there are maybe 2 sectors that are still on sell.
Due to my "Forward" in this post, where I point out my current deficits, I have to push the "Margin of Error" for my personal DSI indicator, out 20%, maybe even 30%

This isn't 'Perfect sentiment"
  • I have people calling, Top, most of them Based on the VIX. Not only do you have that chart, but it's a HUGE SPIKE.
  • Normally in a "top" people won't say "overbought", usually the group-think is so bullish we can't even see "overbought"
  • We also don't have my favorite indicator, where it's Very Bearish technically, and they can't see it. (I guess, that is, unless It's here, and I can't see it?. I see short term, but not the longer term)
I spent the afternoon, pulling my sentiment indicator back to 9 from what I thought last night was a 9.5. This could be because people have become more lucid over the weekend. I'm sure we aren't a 10, or the Holy Grail, The 12.... (there is no 11 on the DSI(my indicator)). I'm also warning that i'm not feeling well, so it could be anywhere from 7-9. I doubt a 7... but what do I know?

Maybe this just sets up the perfect "Fade" of me, It kind of sounds like fun, that even I'm mixed up this time.

But I wen't through the charts, Hundreds of them(Ok, I'm being dramatic 60).... and it's close, but not it. Maybe Breadth starts to weaken here. The QQQQ, It looks like it could have topped. So, maybe this is where the Divergences; Stock by Stock/Sector by Sector start.

I have to stick with my "Call on the Field of Battle",
that what you are looking for is:

  • Maybe 4 bars this week, of stalling. as the market "builds a Top"
  • Or we get some kind of vic2b above Friday's high.
  • My sentiment indicator is, High probability it's a 9, but there is a decent chance it's a 7-8. Hard to be definitive.
  • The other thing is, Sure they are Excited sentiment wise, But... are they Euphoric? Not only are they happy, but Do they seem like they want to dance?

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