Financial history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes. You can't be stupid enough to trade off anything I say.... I'm lucky they let me out of the straight-jacket long enough to trade.

J. P. Morgan

"Sell down to your sleeping point"

Wednesday, November 28, 2007

Luck

so, Technical analysis.....



I'm a huge Math Wiz... I guess... I was that kid who the teacher always had to hassle to write down the steps to my solution. I could just do it all in my head, step by step. I visualized then slapped down the solution. I did finally sort of throw down a step or 2 just to show some work. I also have great long term memory...

I also, am a huge believer that the world can be represented for the most part by mathematical formulas, and shapes...

People line up at the grocery store, in a bell curve, for the most part... its a herding mentality. Also The third wave of an elliot wave being the largest just shows more herd mentality, as that is when the Crowd piles into the trade. They also tend to have 6th and 7the wave finishes, which tend to account for blow off tops.

It's not that the world can be represented by numbers, but that numbers can be used to represent the world.
No Two Oranges are ever alike, therefor 2 oranges don't exist, they have different flavors sizes, weights, colors, tastes. And yet I agree 2 oranges. This always accounts for anomalous deviations from numerical models.
but if you understand that, you can see the world through funny little numbers... but always understand that there is a real world that lives and breaths under it.

So, I like to call it Chart-astrology, Regardless of the Hitting percentage of the batter, it doesn't mean they won't miss. And when Technical analysts start talking about the "Magic of 7's" or other crazy shit....

But a good chart read can give you a significant advantage.... They say you can't pick top's and bottoms... And it's true.... But someone does.... or they wouldn't happen.

So, I thank my lucky stars every great call I make, and Seriously Can't believe when I make a good one. I try not to let it come down to luck..... But regardless your rolling the dice.

2 comments:

Douglas said...

The Bass Model, created by my father, shows the adoption curve can be described by a differential equation.

Eric said...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bass_diffusion_model

that one?

One of my huge regrets is that I never attempted to use my gift for mathmatics or physics for the forces of "good"...

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