Financial history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes. You can't be stupid enough to trade off anything I say.... I'm lucky they let me out of the straight-jacket long enough to trade.

J. P. Morgan

"Sell down to your sleeping point"

Monday, November 12, 2007

Bear Market?

So I'm a bear on this market for 6 months minimum.... But that doesn't mean the market won't go higher. I hear a lot of bear talk about "Bear market"

This is a "Baby Bear"... I won't be a confirmed "Bear until we break the august lows.... That will confirm it.. The corrections are getting bigger and bigger, I expect based on bigger corrections, this one will be larger, but at the august lows, that correction will be larger than the august correction... Which could mean a large bounce followed by a test of march.... This makes a ton of sense.... I still say 12800 as the low this week. Then a bounce back to 13150....

I try to be objective...

Only because market delusions about how great things are .... sometimes unstoppable for months.

Like I say, I'm frequently wrong.

Also, one can say this pull back is because of recession, Like I said weeks ago, it's more about the PEG of the market being wrong. The market should try and adjust the curve to the current PEG... but with the bank problems, that level will be a high. What is that level? I don't fucking know!!!.... How about if I do linear regression for 3 months on the spy.... 154? absolute top of this market... I'd even say 152, 154 by xmas.

2 comments:

Will Dwinnell said...

How about if I do linear regression for 3 months on the spy...

If you have the tools, you might consider using a regression which is more resistant to outliers and long-tailed distributions, such as L-1 regression:

L-1 Linear Regression

-Will Dwinnell
Data Mining in MATLAB

Eric said...

I may take some time to look into L-1 Regression, Unfortunatly I need to do some research CDO and CLO Derivatives.

but thanks for the info.

New Economic Indicators and Releases

What does Blue Horse shoe love?- Blog search of "BHL"

cnbc