Hubris (random technical blathering)

So, I umn... damn my technical analysis is spot on... sure we went up to 13160 and not 13150... And sure I didn't take a new position. But damn.

My expectations are either of 2 scenarios.

1. We Leg down 300+
2. Or over the next 2 or 3 days we Leg down 100 then another 100 to my 12800 target... Roughly.

While the Naz has fallen off a cliff the R2k has really been range bound, or even up slightly. But today we saw some weakness in the r2k, which lead us down in the first place. The dow did hold us up, and honestly it was Citi strangely enough... Funny how what lead us down, is now holding the market up... But once it gave, that was it today....

Just my opinion.....

I expect some strength at the 12800 level, but if we get there tomorrow... I'll cover my shorts, but wont' be psyched to go long. We could completely nose dive...

I've said it repeatedly, this sell off has been more aggressive than I'd anticipated... But the past few days have been more bullish than I have expected.

So, Looks to me like the shorts are waiting for that 3:00 buyer. Who Just got killed so many times, I'd be surprised if they aren't out of business. But now that it has worked to short the last 45 minutes or so. I'd expect that won't work tomorrow...
Things that work twice, tend to fail the third time.... People get wise. Point being, long positions will be looking to sell out earlier tomorrow.. I'm just saying, I wouldn't expect a lat day sell off tomorrow, unless we are falling off a cliff.

If we see a lower level than 12800 tomorrow... I wouldn't take a long position. but if we see 12800 day after tomorrow, I'll look to bottom pick.

The reason I say this is that we need to decelerate... I always say, the market is like a truck, it doesn't turn on a dime. I just don't see us taking this 20+day 1000 point decline and v bottoming.

Today's rally I expected to see something like it a week ago... I just think there is a chance we will test march in the next 2 weeks.... Just based on the momentum. If we test Aug in the next couple days, I'd expect a 1-2 day rally then back to march.

One could thing that today was a good day for bears, but most of them took a big hit in gold and materials, so.... it was a bad day for everyone. Gold just was ridiculous today, and still it sold off. Those are some crowded exits.