Morning compass

OUCH...

Huge Uptick in Overnight Libor 4.995


It is normal for there to be a pre weekend uptick in Libor.. this was a little larger than the normal uptick, by 10-15%. Similar to what we had 2 weeks ago.

3 Month libor 4.905 another uptick to a new week and a half high in 3 month. Slightly higher than normal.

To me this is a little bit of a concern. more than last week, but better than the one before.

To me it says that the banks are more nervous about loaning money to other banks over this weekend, than last.

Gold and the Peso/Dollar.

The Euro is looking like a double top. I say it trades 1.4450-1.4625 for 3 months, if no intervention(ECB cuts, or else).
I say gold takes another leg down soon and tumbles to $750

With a stable Dollar, this means that unless the fed cuts more commodities have topped out... Included in this are oil, copper, Etc..

I'm going to pick up some deep drillers and refiners for a seasonal trade after we tumble and capitulate on oil.