I read through my blog today......
You have to understand... I have to make money... I had stock to sell today, when we didn't have much follow through on that strong opening.... My day was full, especially when I did share some intraday charting with you....
So, I miss some spelling/Typos. I miss a ton of commas. Many broken sentences.
I absolutely hoped that today would be bullish... and we did make a new high.... it's just we should have had some follow through, and we failed.... it looks like the bears are taking new control of the market. One can say that we were up 40 pts on the dow, but when you realise on the open we were 140 up, so we closed 100 pts off the open.... 100 pts is a good start to a 400 pt elliot wave down.
maybe I'll get caught....
but we should have seen some follow through, especially on the last day of the month.
and a few weeks of swing trading after that long drop, felt right.
Uncle Ben.....
So...
if the jobs numbers are low,
that won't change trading, because they will say, "oh the fed will cut a full point, or a half point.",
If the jobs numbers are strong(or in that shitty 100K range, we call strong), that will be bearish, because besides .25 rate cut, on "credit market freeze", they don't have anything to hang their hat on for a cut. and the Governors were split.... We need Bad Consumer or Bad jobs to justify anything more than .25 at the fed funds window...
and it will be make or break point on the fed day. I'm a huge fan of having powder dry on fed day. It's very hard to guess what they will do, or the reaction to it.... but at this point there is a full point cooked into the books.(High Expectations)
(I haven't combed through Uncle Ben's speech, but I don't find it as Bullish for a cut as we, seem to be making it out to be.) But the bears, want to cook as much into the books as they can right now so we can move down in an orderly fashion.
Christmas Rally: This is a yearly Cyclical Trade... and Foolish to count on, since we arn't trading in the yearly cyclical fashion... This yearly trade starts nov 1, and moves till nov 30... Then either keeps running or flattens till Xmas-Jan.(this has been the Xmas Rally)
This is what makes today a low risk entry point for a swing trade. As week as the upside is.. we won't see more than 100 pts in upside if I'm wrong.... But if I'm right.... 200-300+pts of downside.
Low risk entry point=$$$$
Sure I should have waited to confirm a lower high and a lower low on all indexes... it was poor discipline, but i've been fairly right for months... and it was time for a little riskier play.
Also in a 3-5 day swing trade, we are in the 5th day roughly of the up move(roughly), and on the up move I was 2 days late on perfect timing, So waiting one day, could have me one day behind the curve.
Honestly, Like a fool I'm pulling from the august correction play book(but I can count a lot of people will do that, with some adjustments for an easy fed), with a 1970's bear market Model(You can't trade like the 2000 recession, because September 11th messed up the trading.). and 1990 doesn't quite show the magnitude of this event.
The point of my blog is to share my trader sentiment, as Y'all do with me. Since I'm isolated from the "Wall Street" bubble, blogs are how I measure sentiment(Besides that Fucking CNBC).
I'm often wrong, and won't be surprised If I have made a mistake.
Financial history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes. You can't be stupid enough to trade off anything I say.... I'm lucky they let me out of the straight-jacket long enough to trade.
J. P. Morgan
Friday, November 30, 2007
Apologies again
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