early morning speculation

Ok... I say bounce to 147.2-148 on the SPY today. Then I bet on a monday move Range bound in the 146.4-144.7........ Followed by.... Capitulation to the 143.4 or lower.

My Thesis on the capitulation is that the longs are going to get tired of the pummeling, They already are starting to get exhausted.

I on the other hand will only come and play if we hit the high end... Like 148.2 ish... I'm tempted to buy a consumer name Like J&J, and ride it into the capitulation, then move into something else after that... For some trades.

I saw some debate on the commodites plays going limp.. and I'm agreeing. in a natural recession cycle that woule be a normal sector rotation.

IMHO we have cooked into the books a 3 month recession at this level. Recessions are 11-30% correction.. But that will have to happen in phases. Final capitulation happens in the middle of the recession. So 1.5 months 45 days from the highs would be the bottom of a 3 month recession.(roughly) We are 26 days in.

Bear markets are when we are below the 200 day moving average.. So... that is 148.5 right now.. I say that is the bounce.

Bearish things...
New Lower Lows yesterday in GOLD, Oil, Technology Leadership; aapl, RIMM, GOOG.

BULLISH... NO new low in SPY, DOW, and IWM.

I just think we will either test the recent lows or make new ones. overall we may settle out at 145.4. Untill we get bad employment numbers...

Or everything is fine and we go back to the highs.