Financial history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes. You can't be stupid enough to trade off anything I say.... I'm lucky they let me out of the straight-jacket long enough to trade.

J. P. Morgan

"Sell down to your sleeping point"

Thursday, November 8, 2007

Insomnia Redux

I could tell you about my developing hemroids... but I'll spare you. I live Mountain time, so.. the market opens 7:30 am, and if I'm on par with the rest of the market which gets up at 3-4 Eastern. it means I get up at 1-3... I sometimes sleep in till 4am.

Just a small story about wed, I was short and have been printing money short for a week, but I was looking for one more good move to the upside... I figured we would have a down 50 day, then have an up100-50. Unfortunately... and I knew this but it didn't fit the geometry of the move, a 4 day up day run(sort of) just didn't quite fit the move. Also, note for the future.. the risk is to the acceleration of the move.

I've been wondering how the world will handle this... I was just pondering the idea of a Global SIV.... The Global SIV that ate Shanghai..... it's a monster movie... I digress.

So, I cashed out and figured I'd catch 2-4 more bucks in an upside move and reverse on thursday... Then we tested 1495 then 1490. Then to show how disciplined I am... or am not... We broke 1490 and I marked the time. I wanted to see 5 or 10 minutes of down side or 1480 before I put my order in.... So 2 minutes later 1480 I hold off, and I see some shaking in the market. We shake a little and hold 1480 for 2 more minutes or so... and I'm like Fuck it. Market plunges.. I put my order in... Market order, and as luck would have it I caught .50 of the bottom of the move.... then we reverse.. 15 -20 minutes and we still are below 1490 and it's resisting. I figure I'm safe(as far as the move not being a trap.).. so then we come back on top and what did we do bounce off a celling of 1495 or 1500 then trade neutral till the last hour.... I was fucking nauseous the whole time.... Cause This is what I do all the time, then I don't make money till the end of the day, or the next. I knew this move was accelerating based on the geometry, so I wasn't that worried... I was just suspecting that I would take some Thursday pain.

And Doug kass... Not that he isn't a genius. But he posts this thing about "Bearus Interuptus... For a few day....few weeks." and Brian Shannon(genius again) but he is all "be careful".. and I play Brian counter a lot.... in a way I think the is Cautious, but when he says " Aggressive Traders" It makes me jump...

Alright, I'm going to try and grab a nap.. When I went to bed at 8pm someone woke me up at 10:30.... and it's fucking with me.

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