It's obvious to me that this will end in chop.
the chess chat room seems to has hit depression levels.
If we are entering tinfoil hat stage, it would suggest that things will end after this weekend.
I like the sentiment shift of this afternoon though. no trader will take a chance till that number is out tomorrow. it's a very good inflection point. people can take some risk once they see it. being the game theory person I am, I just try to anticipate it. we were at and are at bottoming oversold levels.
but all of that doesn't fit into my model. but we have seen a time or 2 in the past year where my model has been off.
Friday, March 6, 2009
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I'm calling it, bro. Yesterday's close was the low. There, I did it.
Number is out in 10 seconds.
Nice, I keep wondering how long it will work to buy faz in the morning sell it in the afternoon...
let us just hope that you are right... as long as we talk about the closing low
sentiment from friday usually goes into monday.
hey... How are you doing?
You notice How I've managed to get sick of it and started using everyone as a sentiment indicator.
I guess FAZ will continue for another day. How low does XLF get? 2?
Sentiment is shot as an indicator. The only people in the market are day-traders and they're 85% short-sellers.
Unbelievable. If we don't find Osama bin Laden by 3:30 pm EST, I'll be muttering and drooling on myself like TK.
well short term we may get some short covering into the close, nice bounce has setup.
Is that Yamada's sister Griffeth is talking to?
to talk about sentiment... I just think the usual suspect.. is exhausted. this part of the cycle has some "variances" that are hard to account for.
I'm not sure who you were talking about, I may have been on msnbc
Griffeth is the only one patient enough for this interview:
http://tinyurl.com/crkqve
good old lemon socialisum.
don't they realize that it's actually war on the have nots by the haves.
what they are pissed about is that the have not's are fighting back
Right? you see how hypocrytical all this bullshit by the elite's in this country is?
They're pulling out Yamada too for a Friday!!!
well buddy... have we seen osama yet?
I've started to acumulate things including wfc and jpm...
I'm not suggesting it... but I want to puke.. and this is going to be deceptive.
it's because we won't get panic on this low that everybody will miss it.
I just can't see it happening without financials leading us out.. it will be mostly short covering..
Semi's seem to be leading, but I still can't see how we are going to base an economy on them.
the three "possible leaders" are materials financials and tech.
I just think it was materials leading us before.
BUT... I hear a lot of talk about all financials going to 1... including cramer
that sounds like a bottom
picked up your lame bbt.
The chips have been fine.
I'm getting tempted by healthcare again...
GLD, SLV, FCX are the only longs doing well for me.
MS, NTRS, BMC not doing well.
GOOG is terrible.
Shorts the only thing that worked all week: BGZ, SDS, FAZ but I'm out of them now.
May get some BGU at the close in hopes we bomb the crap out of Waziristan this weekend.
Should look at MRVL.
RIG below 50 looks tempting, too.
Part of the mamis thing is that "headline risk should be high"
I think before today, it was but now it's low... what bad news could we get? ok besides western Europe.
I think we are either at #4 or #5 on the list, having gone thru the other stages.
http://starwealth.blogspot.com/2009/03/wheres-bottom-more-pain-to-come.html
Not sure if Mamis factored in high volume day-traders, but that seems to be moving the late day surges of late as FAZ and BGZ holders and short-sellers close out positions in the afternoon.
You're the game theory guy-- what is the trigger that will bottom is in? I'm not sure we can predict it based on the Mamis thesis, but we're pretty close. There will be a catalyst at some point, I kid about Osama but that's my point.
Even if Western Europe caved this weekend, I think some of that is factored in already. Fund managers are holding cash for expected redemptions as unemployment wreaks havoc on peoples' savings, but that could be done already. Those losing jobs now are not invested.
All my BS is pure crap. I just think we are due for an oversold rally and I'm going into the weekend more long than usual.
the sell of on rig was on high volume and has now declined...
that smells of capitulation.
Mamis reference:
http://starwealth.blogspot.com/2009/03/wheres-bottom-more-pain-to-come.html
buddy... this feels like accpetance.
feel it out... I almost have a chill up my spine..
I think we have accepted our fate finally.
I'm going to shit if your 666 is bottom
I said f-k it, either I'm right or I'm not and bought a boatlaod of BGU and RIG at 3:15 pm EST and took a nap.
I just woke up. I'm not selling this crap until it doubles in price. I'm sick of having to trade in and out of SRS and FAZ every day; I can't live like this anymore, it's just not human.
What the hell... are we going to stop using oil? Did Obama master cold fusion this afternoon? Are none of these companies ever going to turn a profit?
If so, then so be it. I'll ride RIG all the way down to $5 if I have to and TK will have me guest-posting when he gets admitted to the looney bin.
Have a good weekend, dude.
Alright, I sold my BGU after hours, but I'm holding that RIG.
DJIA at 1966 levels (inflation adjusted):
http://www.crossingwallstreet.com/archives/2009/03/43_years_of_no.html
futures will be up big on monday.
but they will try and sell it.
another chance to buy in.
but this feels like it's over.
Feels like what is over?
This intermediate downtrend
I was sitting and I even thought "dare I even hope"
Hey so rig has been "basing in that 48 to 53 range or so? when it breaks out of that range to the upside, get it stopped out. Oil looks ok, but still I'd bet that it is more range bound, and maybe when people realize it's range bound. there may be more down side... or sideways action in the stocks.
Damn buddy, you know we have been at this a year at this point...
I need to send a nice note to T-Lo
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