Financial history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes. You can't be stupid enough to trade off anything I say.... I'm lucky they let me out of the straight-jacket long enough to trade.

J. P. Morgan

"Sell down to your sleeping point"

Thursday, March 5, 2009

on and on and on

seems like we are outside the rocketship, Ground Control to major Tom!!!

Today felt bad. funny the 1973-5 bear ended on an nfp but on the monday.

I've been staring at charts, and trying to keep my shit together.

My model says the bottom is more likely the 16th..... I'm about shit full of anyone else models.

I still want to stick with my "chop" model. a good bear bottom should be a stealth bottom, and end in chop. so that could still go on through the 16th.

Sentiment, I talked about a lower low on less connotative dissonance.. as I walked today, I felt like this is what we have had.

Using my stages of grief model.... are we to depression? seems like we are out of anger...

We also are to some extremes of oversold, and some of the divergences that were there and were making me happy... well they umn are starting to not be divergent.

I guess to look at it...

we could be making the lows over the next couple days. I still say that we want to see the market build a base. I would like to see some of the divergences re-establish themselves. IE some slightly lower lows. we want to re-establish that sense that everyone who has sold will sell.

I saw chris mathews today, and he said it was starting to get like a car accident that he didn't want to look at, I'd say he is working on depression.
I've looked at this for hours.......I think there is a chance, mix sentiment with the technicals.
I still say it will trade chop.... I swear the final low will involve a few days of Chop which will look ascending. as opposed to days of chop that is descending.... That is what I say we are looking for. and if it ends on the 16th... good enough. Even as EWT I like this....

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