If you're short, I'm the sucker going long....: market has to earn it now

Tuesday, December 1, 2009

market has to earn it now

6 comments:

Tony said...: We opened at the top of the range on the 65-min. Looks like a pennant of some sort forming. Odds are it will resolve UP eventually... but who knows?; December 1, 2009 at 10:47 AM
Tony said...: If you take out the two "Dubai" down days, we are still below Wednesday's high of 111.50 or last Monday's swing high (on daily) of 111.74.

Dubai may have been a minor diversion, but the trend is still slightly down--- or it's a bigger bull flag?; December 1, 2009 at 10:55 AM
Eric said...: its a big range trade.

Taleb would be impressed by your ability to just discard data.

to break it down... there is a downswing from wed through yesterday.

then you get an upswing... and you don't know the trend until you see the upswing complete.; December 1, 2009 at 11:01 AM
Tony said...: Eurusd at the top of the range. This could be the top of the swing? Lots of resistance here in the indices as well.; December 1, 2009 at 11:24 AM
Eric said...: wouldn't it be nice if we got a little breakout and a nice vic2b test of top to play on the swing.; December 1, 2009 at 11:26 AM
Tony said...: That "M" would not be clean enough for the classic vic 2b. The idea is that there is a minor capitulation, a pullback, then a major capitulation. This brings a more violent correction that is tradeable.

This looks more like a range trade or bull flag. The breakout to the upside would be more tradeable-- above 111.74. (If it happens.)

An equally likely scenario is that we roll over with lower highs and lower lows.; December 1, 2009 at 11:37 AM

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