Financial history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes. You can't be stupid enough to trade off anything I say.... I'm lucky they let me out of the straight-jacket long enough to trade.

J. P. Morgan

"Sell down to your sleeping point"

Saturday, December 19, 2009

Sentiment Alert!

Tony and I have been in a morning long Argument/discussion about market direction and if Barry, is "Spot on" or if he is; "Lookout Below", and "Get Wicked Short" Barry, the Monday after Bear Collapsed. Not to mock; since we are all susceptible to the Prevailing sentiment.


As I just presented the idea that Barry sort of "Diggs in" on his forecast, at inflection points.

(In case he reads this, Not that he is Long term wrong; Just that it's important Sentiment, for some sort of swing.)

Just as another indicator of sentiment, we get into Discussions +/- a few days of a significant High.

2 comments:

Tony said...

I'm not sure what your gripe is with Barry over Bear Stearns. He actually was one of the first to give credence to the rumors of their lack of capital.

http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2008/03/rumor-of-the-da.html

I don't remember Ritholtz saying to go "wicked short" at the time, but geez, if he did that would have been as good a time as any to sell.

Yes, we do seem to have these discussions near inflection points-- not always tops, tho, since I remember a pretty detailed discussion near the Mar 6 low and also another one neat the July take-off.

I think this is another inflection point, and it can go either way. A solid case could be made for either direction. I'll wait for the first swing.

Eric said...

not going to waist my time, sorry.

just to be clear, I'm ONLY SAYING...

"Sentiment is Massively Positive."

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