Financial history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes. You can't be stupid enough to trade off anything I say.... I'm lucky they let me out of the straight-jacket long enough to trade.

J. P. Morgan

"Sell down to your sleeping point"

Tuesday, December 15, 2009

Broke Documentary.

Michael Covel's Broke: The new American dream.

Watching this. They spent 30 minutes talking about how the only good investment was "Poker". This had me for quite some time, 30 minutes of beating the RealEstate horse. There was some coverage of the Behavior of markets.

But it started rambling about the "poker" point, and hasn't come back on task yet. Funny they were going on and on about the Lottery, and how all of these people think the most likely way they will get 500K for retirement is, and they say Lotto...
Problem is they are right, Their best chance is the Lotto.


Tony said...

I didn't see the documentary, but the best chance statistically of getting $500,000 for retirement is a college degree.

A Bachelors degree is worth $1.3 million in lifetime earnings and a Masters is $2.5 million.

The problem is that most people don't want the money "for their retirement", they want it NOW to buy plastic shit they don't need.

Eric said...

I'm just talking about the reality of it. If they buy and hold diversified stock holding or if they could manage to save money in a bank.

but even if you save money it's vulnerable to inflation. If they invest it, they will most Likely loose it chasing cramer stocks

so buy and hold, or just save or the lotto, are about 'Their' only chance.

Just to blow your thesis, many people are not smart enough, focused enough, nor could they manage to work to feed themselves and get a degree. Nor are they smart enough to fill out the paperwork to borrow enough to money to get a University education.

Tony said...

If someone has enough money to invest in stocks, then they have enough money to go to college. Investment in your own human capital is an investment just like any other.

Whether that education is nuclear physics or to be a medical assistant is of little consequence to the thesis. Our society runs on intellectual capacity now, not manufacturing or physical labor. Even the dumbest person can improve their intellectual capacity.

Eric said...

I think that is what I said, they don't have any money. so their best chance is the Lotto.

I have 2 friends with PHD's that are bankrupt from 'investing'.

I know 4 people who work in the financial industry. Not one of them has a fucking clue how to make money in the market.

and another 2 with Masters that are underwater with their stocks and bonds... But don't worry they have stopped invsting in stocks and are heavy bonds.

Both my Parents, both with University degrees. Won't touch anything but bonds, and wish they had never heard of stocks.

I guess I can concede that the best way to have enough money to lose in the stock market or investing... is a degree.

The silly point i'm making is that they just have NO CHANCE, and the Lotto is Some Chance.

Tony said...

Maybe I'll have to watch the documentary, but I have no idea what poker has to do with retirement.

If you have a PhD, the chances of you going "broke" are nearly zero. Sure you might lose money in the stock market, but that's much different than going broke.

I think the mentality that people are better off investing in stocks instead of themselves died in 2000... or at least it should have.

There is no free lunch, but to say they "have no chance" is not accurate. We live in a wealthy society that enables the vast majority of people to become educated at very little cost. All it takes is discipline and the most basic work ethic.

Our local community college has an array of career and vocational training programs that are affordable.

Eric said...

I kid you not 30 minutes on Poker. and how government wants to stop it, "Because it's a game you can win", as opposed to the rest of these "investments"

I think you and I live in very different worlds. I've spent way too much time with blue collar guys, working their knuckles to the bone $10-$12 an hour, Praying for 10 hours of overtime, for an extra $100 on their week, so they can have some money to do something besides pay bills and keep the kids fed and are lucking to be able to Read instructions or do simple addition and subtraction.

As someone who regularly negotiates wage/Rates it's amazing how little people think they can get away with paying people. Half the calls I get, end in the first 5 minutes because someone on the other end thinks they can pay me almost nothing, or a Rate at which I'd go bankrupt working at.

Eric said...

Cluster stock was suggesting that the documentary was just a long sales pitch for his version of the turtle trade. Which I think I agree with.

I think he did a bad job seems like he convinced me he was some kind of loon. There were some good parts, I was preped to give it a good review, and make it a x-mas gift, but then he went of the rails on Lotto's and Poker. He did give a good Lashing to CNBC.

But.... on another topic... were they super excited yesterday?

Tony said...

I couldn't find the documentary except for a site that wanted me to BUY it. I don't BUY stuff.

Anyway, I probably misunderstood your point about it. I thought you were saying that the Lotto was the best chance of getting $500,000 for retirement.

BTW, I know plenty of blue-collar people, grew up with them, played little league baseball with them, went to college with them, have delivered their babies and have seen them grow up.

The only ticket out of the hell-hole in which I was raised was education. Nobody I know got out by any get-rich-quick scheme. Nobody was left an inheritance. The ones who played poker or took flyers on Commodore stock are still there.

Sure, the abilities were varied, and while not all went on to illustrious careers treating vaginal discharge, many became truck mechanics or HVAC technicians or other respectable vocations that pay well and provide for their families.

Were they excited yesterday? Who's "they"? I'm still at a loss to identify these people. I'm waiting for the DSI (TM) to come out in beta.

Eric said...

I don't want to open that one back up. It was on the documentary channel, probably will be again.

The problem was, I refused to watch CNBC yesterday. Seems like the blogs are super optimistic. It's all Christmas Rally all around.

But the reality is that the volume dies next week and wont' come back until the Jan 2.

New Economic Indicators and Releases

What does Blue Horse shoe love?- Blog search of "BHL"