Financial history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes. You can't be stupid enough to trade off anything I say.... I'm lucky they let me out of the straight-jacket long enough to trade.

J. P. Morgan

"Sell down to your sleeping point"

Wednesday, December 30, 2009

Some Notes

Ugh... I'm in "Don't give a shit" mode.

I have no idea why I try.

For a Short term swing in the market, you need a short term swing in your indicators. Be they an Oscillator, or a Sentiment indicator.

To have an intermediate swing, you need an extreme indicator. The march low was 10 months ago, so your Indicator needs to flash extreme (once in 10 months extreme) As opposed to once a Quarter Extreme, or Once a Month Extreme, on a relative basis.

I've talked about the "Melissa Francis and Larry Kudlow giving each other Fuck me Eyes" indicator. Or some other CNBC sentiment Extreme. One note of caution is I have yet to see that indicator get to an Extreme Euphoria. I have seen Complacency get to an Extreme. This is usually the good trade indicator.

But when I look at the numbers, it seems like we are "Within Spitting Distance" of an Intermediate High. Sentiment wise.

But you have to have a Technical Confirmation. The good Models are combinations of Technicals and Sentiment.

Last week I showed the charts that suggested some kind of top in the next few weeks, we are at 1 week from that point. We had some huge Call Put Ratios, but I also caution using those in such low volume.

So, I also mentioned the wave count on this swing from the past week or two.

To stay honest, though this fits the model for a possible top. We want to see the next Upswing, which we should now have transitioned into.

I also caution, because some of my targets on stocks and sectors. and the top of that Wedge on this upswing, Didn't get hit convincingly.

and even with a pullback, we could see a nice reversal into a run through feb.

If I run by technical Feel, this is a "topping process" this week. But it seems to me, like it's still such a Wildly called top.

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