Financial history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes. You can't be stupid enough to trade off anything I say.... I'm lucky they let me out of the straight-jacket long enough to trade.

J. P. Morgan

"Sell down to your sleeping point"

Monday, December 21, 2009

The Realy Interesting Uninteresting chart.






I've tried to talk about this in the past. It always seems to me that all the oscillator or indicators are something very simple:
for the most part, they are just a variation on a moving average. Sort of Too Smart by half Moving Average. For the most part say something that you should be able to see by noticing a few red bars. Only you are only 2 red bars into it, and they are 5 or 10 depending on the indicator..


I posted all the sentiment charts, and Please realize what they are saying: in a poll of 200 some odd people 7 days ago, we spent 2 days calculating... and this is how we quantified their strategy of 10 days ago. Any new information from the past 10 days, has yet to be assimilated into the data. +/- 10 days, there could be a current variation of up to 50% real time.

So... In this Theme I give you Rydex.

You would think that when you build a chart like this, instead of showing the points in time when the indicator Flashed, You would show where the indicator was when the market was at an inflection point.
Then show where the indicator was. Let me just interperate(*wink wink* that is a joke) this. What is interesting, is that it tends to spike then reverse, and that is a top but unreliable. In fact one could make a case that BELOW 1 has a high correlation with an impending top in the next 7 days. As opposed to Above 2 sell. Which works, but for maybe 1 day.

I'm actually laughing here this morning, because I've given these charts way too much time. This above chart is great.... Guaranteed to be both Right and Wrong. Since it's flashed both Buy and Sell.... SO FOR SURE IT WILL BE CORRECT if you buy Or is it sell??? you are going to have a Winner. Rydex... Rorschach of the week.








New Economic Indicators and Releases

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