Financial history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes. You can't be stupid enough to trade off anything I say.... I'm lucky they let me out of the straight-jacket long enough to trade.

J. P. Morgan

"Sell down to your sleeping point"

Monday, December 14, 2009

So 1 week to go

The market needs to turn here. There is only about a week until we get to low volume holiday trading. Then after that we would have the most widely called top ever. The end of the year reversal. I guess it could happen. It seems like if we don't turn here.... February.


Tony said...

Santa rally and January effect have you freaked?

The last swing up I kicked myself for not getting more short. Overnight the ES_F tagged 1117 on very low volume after the Dubai news came out... double digits up from Friday's daily close.

That might have been the (very soft) bell ringing for this swing high. SPY 110.18 seems like a reasonable target for the next swing down

Eric said...

That Christmas week to new years is a pain to go lower. and the Jan sell off is what they are all banking on... most widely called top ever, but I guess we then have terranova and his uber market wisdom to help it happen.

I just think it needs to shit of get off the pot. As my old man would say.

Tony said...

"... sell off is what they are all banking on..."

Who's "they"? The bears?

The bearish thesis would be that there are very few bears left, and they would not be banking anything at this point, just looking for an exit out of their pain.

If this is a test of top, we should get a swing lower. The play will be to pick an entry to get short (today's high?)... or wait for a red bar... or look at the 130-min for a down bar.

Otherwise, I guess we could sit it out til February.

Eric said...

the blind following the blind are saying Christmas rally then sell off.

maybe they are right.

Eric said...

not to say that it can't sell off in the next few days.

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