Financial history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes. You can't be stupid enough to trade off anything I say.... I'm lucky they let me out of the straight-jacket long enough to trade.

J. P. Morgan

"Sell down to your sleeping point"

Monday, December 21, 2009

Recap and some models

  • The Model I love, which is my solid money maker, says this: The significant swing, needs to Pivot Last Monday or Friday or Today. It's roughly a +/- 1 day model.... So Maybe a spike higher tomorrow, would be possible, but would keep me cautious.
  • My wave count EWT model, says that after this Upswing that started friday, its time for a Correction.

A "Breakout" of this Pennant, that I pointed out this weekend(Oh!!! you are welcome BTW), Can have this little pullback(like this afternoon), then it needs to run like a Bat out of Hell!... Into the well forcasted "Christmas Rally"

Other things to contemplate:

  • That we are like a Boat Dead at sea, volatility dies and we just hang here, for a few (more) months.
  • I have talked about the Most Widely called top in existence, the Post Christmas sell off. We can make a case for this by suggesting that in the impossible to calculate model, the blind following the blind is a valid strategy... but in that case... wouldn't gold still be strong? Just a thought.
  • I also must mention that; if my good model Fails, that the other, sell off hope is a Game Theory sell, before the end of the year. Some kind of top a few days 3+ before the end of the year this is a Weak Model, but not impossible.
  • If no "Most Widely Called top in existence", we could run through Mid Jan or mid Feb, then have some form of correction. (We could also suggest that as the blind follow the blind, and sell off some time mid Jan, we could have a nice Swing Low. Suddenly reversing on everyone to the upside.)

To just hit on some Reality, the market looks and Feels like it will never correct again. Sentiment is off the Hook... this says Intermediate high to me, BUT I HATE THE IDEA OF A JAN1 high... Which is complete Recency bias from last year.... It feels Like this JUST CAN'T Happen... but never say never.

I know... I'm trying to sort of be on vacation... which means I'm just kind of sitting here, pretending I'm Doctor Who, and trying to ignore the squiggles.

This is the jist of what I think; if today was not the High, the next GOOD chance for an intermediate swing high is mid Jan.

I would still give say a 60% chance of a significant swing high(maybe not intermediate) anytime in the next 2 weeks. This just makes me neutral if we can set a new high in the next 2 days.

Just to be Extra Clear... I VERY MUCH DOUBT A LONG TERM HIGH, even though the Sentiment indicators make it possible.

I have been out in the nightmare Christmas stuff, and the only shelves I see, that are empty are things priced $10 and below. I'm not sure I have seen anything of significance that they are sold out of. I also have yet to see people with any form of "Big Bags", and even few people with Many bags. BUT THIS IS STILL A MINOR SAD SAMPLE.

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