I'm short the market, I'll look to get long at the august lows. Technology and materials are the crowded trade. With a strengthening dollar( yes I said it) they are bad trades, and good sells at this point.
As people talk about how the Dow, is a dead indicator, I'd counter that as this economy becomes more industrial and mining, it will become(and is) a leading indicator of the market. Sure PDA equipment is leading this market, if you looked into companies that are technology companies that will aid in the PDA revolution, that should lead technology forward... I'd offer that, it's not going to be a "Revolution" for the economy, there arn't enough jobs involved to get this market back on track.....
The question as we turn from bull to bear is "out of the Ashes, What will Lead the Economy to recovery."..... Where will the Jobs Be..... Jobs for Mullet headed, JetSki Buying, RV riding... guys....
I offer at this point, it will be a revival of the mining sector. as the Cash that we have sent to asia, comes back to the U.S. to continue to buy Materials, for their industrial revolution.
This could mean unions, and overall a replay of the late 40's post WW2 Building Bust.... This could be a 5-20 year Cycle. If we can get things back on track, and start Leading the world with Technology, Financials, and industrials. With a Well Balanced Economy. We could see a Revival of a Golden U.S. Economy... A True Goldilocks....
Just need the Market to burn down first......
The fed can't save this.
100 Trillion in Commercial paper, worth between $.25-.75 on the dollar, but without it being properly "Quantified/Rated" it is not Liquid.......
This market is fucked till that is Resolved. The loss of 10% one year U.S. GDP... The scary thing is if you realise these are banks, and it could be multiplied by the Fractional Reserve. ... that could be at a minimum 10X the yearly U.S. GDP....
If the World is a Fleet of battle ships, and the U.S., Europe, Middle east, Asia. Are Carriers, surrounded by other supported ships.... This is at a minimum of the loss of one of the Carriers, which should set off a global recession. If it's much worse 2-3X... Global Depression, U.S. Depression.....
Not to get Spooky here.... We need Clarity on the commercial paper, this is scary. There arn't enough bullets in the Fed Gun.
I'm happy to be short the market. 100 Trillion
Financial history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes. You can't be stupid enough to trade off anything I say.... I'm lucky they let me out of the straight-jacket long enough to trade.
J. P. Morgan
Friday, November 2, 2007
My counter moves
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