My Biased Technical Analysis

What is my bias... I want to make money. Either we trade 14190-13400 for a while(2 weeks). or we accelerate the downtrend.

Lost in the "Noise" is the lack of upside, The market has lost it's PEG. With no G we have to come back. This is what the "Flat Earnings this quarter" says. Previous prices are based on the growth. We will come back to a trend line between 0 growth and the speculative 4Q growth. Without growth we should see P/E's of 10....

Plugging that into the calculator:
(I tried to find the actual numbers but couldn't find them)
1508 on the spy P/E(speculating 17, lets say 16) that is $95.25 earnings.....
Into my P/E 10 model(lets call it 12) (95.25*12=1143) That is a Solid Bear Market(negative Growth) 1143 based on current earnings. (1508-1143=365. 365/2=182(half a bear)... That is 1326(roughly march lows)... I don't see that in the near term, but an over reaction to half of that (-91) on the s&p500 Which is 1417......(roughly august lows)...
I think we could easily test the august lows this month. Then I bet we get a bounce, and trade neutral, to bullish on the short term, through Q4(but not to new highs).

After a half ass ed Q4, we come back to the march lows, find some support through until spring. Then Watch out 1100 on the Dow. At which point, if we don't go into a depression, and start seeing growing jobs, growing housing. Then we start a new BULL. If not... and this is the Mother of all Recessions(which will be hard with growing industrial and mining(this is good for the middle Class). Worst Case The Bear Ends in 2009.

Or.... We trade Neutral..... I just don't see any upside for the market, When we are hanging our hat on Rate cuts, and a weak Dollar.

Bullish turns of events...
ECB cutting it's Rates.
Dollar/Euro coming back to 1.40

(these things allow more rate cuts)
If we don't get a stronger dollar, then hyperinflation becomes a risk, and the market could go to 40,000

The Chart. From the Highs of Oct. 9-oct 19 is a 642 drop in the Dow.... For an Accelerating Bear market, this move from 13930 on October 31 the Downside of this current move needs to be Greater than 13288... That will confirm a Bear. In the short term we could trade up toward the 13930 for less than 7 days... maybe we have s 3 day rally for 150 points, then another leg down... Would also confirm my Bear. I'll be short till we make a new 20 day high.

Not to scare anyone but interesting how similar this is to October 87, it took 2 weeks of profit taking, then a huge panic.... have to run out of buyers. But this could be the Friday before the Monday panic.

Honestly I hate this economy, and would like nothing more than to see it burn down so we can start again. nasty would be Stagflation for 4 years.....

But I only Care about making money..... Maybe we go neutral for a while....


not sure if this is correct, I've seen some creepy futures this morning... Weird when we get strange data, makes me nervous.