If you're short, I'm the sucker going long....

Financial history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes. You can't be stupid enough to trade off anything I say.... I'm lucky they let me out of the straight-jacket long enough to trade.

J. P. Morgan

"Sell down to your sleeping point"

Monday, January 14, 2008

I went short into the close....

The Linear regression on each of the trend channels is gettin less and less vertical....

Either that or we are developing an assending triangle.

Posted by Eric at 4:00 PM

5 comments:

Tony said...

Pulled up short at the close?! With SDS or another short fund?

I sold short some Taiwan Semi TSM today at $8.99, but I'll have to set a buy stop at 9.70 or so. I don't think there is any way the semi rally will hold. I'm picking my shorts carefully (in more ways than you think!)

One problem with the overall market like SPY may be that all the fence-sitters may have sold by now leaving few sellers remaining, especially financials which make up a third of SPY; the market's had a profound sell-off the last two weeks and it may be due for a technical bounce.

I'm looking at some financials to go long: JPM looks solid and may be rolling around at it's bottom-- I just don't see that sucker going below 39.50 for any length of time. The upside potential is significant. GS and WB are other ones. Do you think it's too early for financials?

January 14, 2008 at 10:14 PM
Eric said...

Going long the Spy, or the ultra long spy... what is that SSO?, would be a good index play for a bounce.....

I try not to post trades, or I get too personally involved, and it ain't good for my trading.

BUT... I say Regional Banks... But as they report earnings they will step down in price, so be careful.

BBT, RF, HBAN, fhn, TCB, CFR

are a selection I look at. probably some dogs and some good runners.

My Thesis is some of the shitty big banks are still going to take beatings. JPM sounds good. and the more Beaten down ones are great for a short Squeeze.

I wouldn't take the money center banks for anything but a swing trade.

January 15, 2008 at 6:29 AM
new comer said...

Going long today may be too risky as with a negative market sentiment with Citi's writedown.

I will wait retail sales report to further decide how to play, but most likely - i will go short.

January 15, 2008 at 7:32 AM
Eric said...

I'm trying to figure out if I wan't to clear my short from last night, I may hang onto it.....

We are violating the trend line segnificantly this morning, we should catch a bounce.....

Which will be the time to short...

It's also possible the bears will wait for the bulls to buy everything they want, then turn around and crush them.... That is the move to watch for.

IMHO, Never chase a move, always let it come to you.

January 15, 2008 at 8:05 AM
Eric said...

Fair warning, I flipped my trade. It's possible that we go lower....

but fair warning.

January 15, 2008 at 1:27 PM

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