.... I got stopped out on some stuff :)
My financials are ripping, I realized my entry point sucked today, I'm not charting aggressively enough .... did some re-entrys..... which are running follow stops....
Did I mention Hyped up Nasdaq Bullshit?????? who made that call???
Instead of aggressively long, I'm now looking for a short term trade.
As much as some may hope for a crash... some of these individual Tickers are Terrible, and reflect a mitigated crash.....
mitigated?
I was hoping for a good verification of a Bull trend today, and we are still very neutral. free cash will be used to bottom fish financials.....
Update(funny cause I'm to busy to post)
I just took some profits, killed some runners. get some cash in my pocket for the big crash. and make up for the small losses I took. Set some solid stops so that if we get some rough trading, I'll just wash out.....
Except financials... I continue to lean overweight cash or overweight financials.
Wednesday, January 23, 2008
Blood
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
5 comments:
I appreciate the sentiment of a short term trade, but the charts are scary and seem unpredictable. The easy money in financials is done. That horse has left the barn.
If China bounces more than 4% add to my FXP. I've already taken some profits on that. JPM and WB are both up a lot today-- I should take some profits, but instead I just set my stops higher and I'm pretty sure they'll trigger today or tomorrow.
Have you looked at INTC for a bounce? The short term technicals are improving.
Scary market to enter right now.
(Need to add to my email responses.)
I think your going to get killed short term short china.
also, watch your stops, you know the PPT bullshit? what happens is the big brokerages may try and buy down the futures every morning(I think), hit peoples stops. and buy the hell out of the stock.... that is an old school wallstreet trick.
It's the inverse of what they did on the way down.... So careful with your stops.
wait to cover till the end of wave 3... we may have just started wave 3. if you wait till a major correction to the downside. it should fail then we make another high.... That is wave 5... so at least let wave 3 run on your financials... lots of predictions for a 2 week run. I'm tempted to play golf for a week or two and just let things run.
I'll work up some charts, now that I don't want to vomit.
;)
jk i hate golf.
I agree with your caution on Ultrashort China (FXP). I set my stop at 104.50 and it triggered today. I noticed that is finished at $90.
I guess that's why God invented stops.
What are your charts saying on financials. I'm still holding them thru the open tomorrow, but I'll re-set my stops higher.
Also, I picked up some INTC at $19.45 with a tight stop. I think it may go higher on any good news from MSFT before the open Thursday. The chart looks good.
As it stands now, I have no short positions-- they all stopped out with some profits. If China bounces significantly, I will re-instate the short position.
I'm getting burned with Alcoa; who knows why I still have it?
I'm hitting the links tomorrow...
The financials are a sector rotation play, they will be the leadership this year, Like materials were last year.(cramer guessed the wrong year)
what we will see is that the financials will be up every day, for then next week and if the financials are down, the whole market will be down.. Roughly.
I've been tagged way to many times with the big brokerages doing an early morning "bear Run" in favored stocks. I've seen them run a stock down 5% for 30 minutes, Tag all the stops, then let it run back up, then they sell it all day.
The big brokers have some crazy tricks. and I'm sure for Weeks they will run the futures down every morning to try and scare people out of this bull run we are going to get.
As opposed to what they did with Buying the futures up, then selling into them.
I'm just saying watch your stops in the mornings... after the first 30 minutes you can reset them...
expect mornings like today to become regular events... it's the opposite of Sell at the end of the day.. its sell in the morning, buy in the afternoon.
You will be amazed how the financials are going to run over the next week... 20-30% easy. Even sell them at the end of the month.
this run could go on for 2 weeks or 3 months... ending somewhere between 1400 to 1500... we should get a small downside correction.. possibly coinciding with the NFP next week.
Roughly we are going to test the downtrend line from the top we made..... Then Guess what? we test and fail and make a new bottom.
of course I could be wrong...
But roughly this is the oldest shell game in the market, First bottom consumer staples and telco(November) Second bottom (financials)... Third bottom Materials..
The new story will be "The commodities play is over", it started today, and will run up for the through this new top. Then there will be a great announcement that "It has Popped, the commodities bubble has popped"
if this is a super cycle, we will do this 3 times over the next few years. just a heavy recession maybe Twice, or if this recession is light, only once.
You never know how it will turn out. so you just go through the motions with everyone else.
I could be wrong
Post a Comment