Financial history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes. You can't be stupid enough to trade off anything I say.... I'm lucky they let me out of the straight-jacket long enough to trade.

J. P. Morgan

"Sell down to your sleeping point"

Tuesday, January 26, 2010

Getting lazy

... I have to keep everyone updated, or you won't read my blog.


So much for Asides:

Speaking of which...


But back to our program.

It seemed like we wanted to have our little bounce on Manic Monday, all the bottom callers came out. This morning the futures are down as much as the market made headway on monday.

The buyers are going to have to step up this morning....

and we shall see. I guess as tony suggested the easy money is made, I'm not saying there isn't much more downside, but now it's hard. ... or Harder. We just need to find that point where everyone sells it.

Strange Interlude Indeed.

14 comments:

Tony said...

As I said yesterday, 2 or 3 day bear flag. Low volume drift... then....
The Big Hurt.

Eric said...

I'm not sure you understand...

you don't get to make significant accurate market calls.

Just letting you know.

There is supposed to be a sarcasm character, to indicate when I'm being sarcastic.

Tony said...

Just a sarcastic ad hominem insult. No slur against my ethnicity. Not bad.

Bear flag may be waning here. I was looking at the 20-EMA on the 65-min as a short entry, but it doesn't look like it will make it.

EEM, RSX, FXI are looking worse than US indices.

Tony said...

VXX staging a comeback.

Eric said...

good to see the vix more bearish than the indexes are bullish.

Tries to come up with slur...

Tony said...

Complacency. T.Lo made some cryptic comment about TLT and IEF not as uncorrelated to the stock indices. She made it sound like if there was real fear, TLT and IEF rising would be a good indicator.

Eric said...

interesting conundrum;

is buying bonds more fear-

than selling everything and going to cash...

*head scratcher*

Tony said...

You're the genius. I'm just giving you substrate for the Davis Fear Index (tm).. it's up to you to do the maths.

1.Maybe a ratio of the rate of cahnge of IEF to LQD or IEF to TLT.

2.Can LIBOR be factored in somehow?

3.I think Vix is not as useful because it has no time lag. By the time the Vix is up, the market has already tanked. maybe it gives someindication of follow-thru, but it doesn't seem to.

4.T.Lo later said that only price matters; all other indicators are noise.

But at the end of the day we need a number from 1 to 11. Fast forward to 1:20

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ll7rWiY5obI

Eric said...

It's all noise my friend, amung the noise you just have to find the signal.

the vix is defiantly a lager, but I'm just saying it pulled back to the friday morning levels, when the market pulled back to the mid friday level.

Tony said...

Prechter says DJIA (not SPX) 500 by 2014.

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_KuoZpIwAKuU/S1FeKAZ6o7I/AAAAAAAAAHY/VwmTyb30K60/s1600-h/ew+projection.gif

Eric said...

cash out, buy guns and ammo.

Eric said...

is there a post that goes with that.

Eric said...

We may need Prechter to take some competency tests.

Tony said...

You asked for it. Here's the post associated with the Prechter chart:

http://thespiritoftruth.blogspot.com/2010/01/puetz-eclipse-crash-window-is-in-effect.html

This guy had an "apocalyptic vision" in 1991 and is waiting for the end of the world. I'm not sure why he bothers blogging. His blog is a testament to how high functioning truly insane people can be.

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