Grantham letter

Well lets look at an excerpt from Jeremey Grantham of GMO’s latest letter..

This would be one thing if corporations really were “democratic associations” of humans that the Founding Fathers may have wanted to protect. They are, instead, small oligarchies of top management. Thus, the top management of major oil and coal companies can decide what political outcomes they want to promote,

say, unlimited production of carbon dioxide (none of theirCEOs apparently has grandchildren!), utterly without any approval of their decisions by the millions of actual owners. The fi nancial power of corporations was alreadyin danger of overwhelming the democratic process inCongress and this makes the damage potentially unlimitedand puts the Court’s seal of approval on it. So let’s do it instyle and have a name change. The U.C.A. has a familiarlook: The United Corporations of America!

This is the letter where he goes off on the Supreme Court.

WHAT A STUPID DECISION, Scalia must be suffering dementia by now, he was never all that stable. AND THE REST OF THOSE FUCKING MORONS!I'm dying to know when the court is going to uphold the right of a Corporation to practice Freedom of Religon, or the Right to vote.

But I'm sure it will be freedom of religion, only if it's Christian.

FUCKING MORONS!

Review

It seems like I owe everyone a pre market review, all the idiots are looking at the 1085 level. If you look at it, which I havn't(I mean this) but the resistance is a series of swing lows, so it could be like taking the Stairs, one level after another.

I don't know where that ultimate level is, where we would catch the elevator.

"They" will be talking about and anticipating Mutual fund monday, or Manic Monday as I like to call it. That MEME should fail at one point. Like monday. The safe trade is to wait and assume a strong open on monday, and fade it.

Other than that You are on your own.

With Howard Zinn, and now the passing of J.D. Salinger ... It's that time of year where the darkeness and sedentary winter, takes it's physical toll.

I'm sitting here listening to a discussion of Salinger, they suggest that kids these days don't get Catcher in the Rye, they think Holden is an entitled elitist who gets booted out of several prep schools for being a snob.

This killed me.

"The Wrestler parody"

The Uncler w/ Uncle Sam and Alyssa Milano from Alyssa Milano

More thoughts

What I'm trying to say, my problem is that I think that instead of making a change in tactics or Message, what seems to be happening, is that they think "If only we say our message LOUDER".

morning read

Well, I'd say all the Turds that decided to "Sell the State of the union" get to cover.

Here is what I have to say about the State of the union.

If we were playing Twenty One, Seems like we just doubled down on a 13.

There was nothing new, and trying to be objective:

• Spending Freeze
• Job program(we knew about this)
• Not backing down on anything

The real questions are:

How much compromise are they willing to do, and how much will congress be able to push through.

This just feels like denial. It has to be clear to all the democrats that if you can't push health care in Massachusetts, you are fucked.

You can improve this to half, you are still talking about losing HALF the Congressional Seats.

There is no cover for sitting Congressman, no Obama shirt Tails to hide under. They will all be trying to find Populist cover, by tossing Geitner or Uncle Ben. Or for pushing a balanced budget. Of course they will cut Services, NOT corporate Welfare.

The Natural thing for all the Lizard brains is to push this thing into the DeathSpiral.

TeaBuggery

It looked they were selling it because of geitner, and pulled a weak hand. Then of course, we have been tracking the "Fade the first move of the Fed decision." over the past months, problem is... I can't quite figure out which way it went right off the decision.

This AApl thing reminds me of this Will Farrel piece

OMG...... THIS TABLET WILL CHANGE YOUR LIFE!!!!!!! IF IT WAS A WOMAN I'D FUCK IT!!!!!!!!!! SANTA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! SANTA!!!!!!!!!!!

I'D suspect that it umn... will end bad ...

I love the slingshot MEME!

hmmm

I'm not sure that looks all that positive...

Que the "Geitner... Pauson... President state of the union MEME"

Precter says Dow 4000 imminent

Of course that was October 17 2002

The stock market's sharp swings this summer and autumn have discouraged investors. "High volatility is completely normal in a bear market," Prechter told me Thursday. (See the Elliott Wave charts below. )

The 30-stock Dow Jones Industrial Average will lose half its value in the next six months to about 4,000 on the blue-chip index, says Prechter. When it's all over several years from now, the Dow will trade below 1,000, Prechter says.

Prechter, in an earlier interview, said the decline that began in January 2000 will play out for several years. "What's going to happen when the stock market finally bottoms? You'll be able to go in there and buy stocks that used to trade at $85 a share for maybe half a dollar or a quarter of a dollar

tomorrow...

the game will be played again tomorrow.

Funny or die

These were hilarious, if you haven't seen them

"I'm F*$cking Matt Damon!" by Sarah Silverman from Sarah Silverman

and then this.

"I'm F*$king Ben Affleck" by Jimmy Kimmel - watch more funny videos

Getting lazy

... I have to keep everyone updated, or you won't read my blog.

So much for Asides:

Speaking of which...

But back to our program.

It seemed like we wanted to have our little bounce on Manic Monday, all the bottom callers came out. This morning the futures are down as much as the market made headway on monday.

The buyers are going to have to step up this morning....

and we shall see. I guess as tony suggested the easy money is made, I'm not saying there isn't much more downside, but now it's hard. ... or Harder. We just need to find that point where everyone sells it.

Strange Interlude Indeed.

Biography

When my biography is Never written, it will be entitled "I made fun of so many, and none of them appreciated it."

I managed to get Doug Kass to block me on twitter, apparently he stays up late reading his mentions, and bitterly blocking anyone who says anything negative.

*grumble Grumble* FUCK YOU ASSHOLE!, I'll show you, you won't get my constant rain dance feed!!! Yes, when I'm wrong I say it.... Just not out loud." *Block* Block*

Of course I'm the one who is always wondering why he would let that nasty bitch Melissa Lee, Treat him like he is some kind of low level dirt bag. All in her Haze of anti-depressants, from the Hair lip Surgery.

Have some Self Esteem Doug, just accept the fact that all the dickhead Italian wanabee pornstar traders, will always hate your Jew ass, just be thankful you aren't a woman!

No worries Doug, your approval seeking will pay off some time... at one point you will be accepted as one of the gang! and not the sad 4 eyed weakling that the big kids used to make eat mud.

(see the racism is a joke, and yet very true. Wall street is still stuck in the 40's), Don't worry no less than 20 years ago, they moved on from the 1930's. So progress is progress.

See why I'm so popular.

Litttle boy Joey, with his Jet Poster above his bed.

All the traders, excited about their Jets, all the years of wanderlust dreaming with their little Pennant above their bed, with the Star Wars sheets.

awwww... disappointed.... maybe next year...*sob sob in their Coco Pebbles"

Ok, Enough teasing the traders.

All the market pro's are on the "Crash" again... I would feel better to see a nice slow market slide, but it's not up to me. Mamis and Doug kass are buying gold... because it may have value... or not.. Ugh... I'll try and resist the Siren Call.

but it creeps me out when I hear the MEME... Personally I am just trying to keep it together.

They should try and "buy it with both hands"... I'll be curious how it will work out for them.

this was good

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

The band

Look how far the vix is out of it's BB

Everybody is short

My VERY QUICK.. sentiment read... YEP I had to do it... Had to watch CNBC, BULLSHIT. It seems to me like everyone is short.

Sure this is me raindancing from saying we would bounce on between yesterday and monday.

and Maybe what the market needs will be a VERY SHITTY OPEN ON Monday. Then we can get a little bounce.

but the traders I'm hearing are all very short.

Was it only yesterday...

It just seems like Yesterday, that the Vix was at 17.... oh... it was tuesday.

Note to talking heads, you don't get to giggle or laugh when talking about panic, and say that it's going on.

Fairly aggressive, seems like the market is no bid.

There should be money coming in on monday..

Sorry

and none of this is going to be helpful, My internet connection didn't come up this morning, until about 7am, then I was running behind.

I figured this morning many people would get sucked into selling this morning, then we would get again "some kind of Pre Manic Monday/Mutual Fund Monday Bounce"

This may have been the proper video

At the 7:40 mark Stuart does a Cramer take down. I'm not sure if I got the right video this morning.

The Daily Show With Jon Stewart	Mon - Thurs 11p / 10c
Indecision 2010 - The Re-Changening
www.thedailyshow.com
Daily Show Full Episodes Political Humor Health Care Crisis

Stretched

Roughly this has hit my target, and it's very stretched.

so...

Now, from what I saw of CNBC and Fox news, on Comedy central. I'd say the Brown senate market rally.... Sounded like Euphoria.....

Cramer and The Daily Show.

The Daily Show With Jon Stewart	Mon - Thurs 11p / 10c
Indecision 2010 - The Re-Changening
www.thedailyshow.com
Daily Show Full Episodes Political Humor Health Care Crisis

At the end is a great take down of CNBC and Cramer, from last night.

Moron Bartaromo

Maria Bartiromo or Maria the Moron, was on MSNBC Morning Joe this morning, I thought I had escaped the Idiot Box by not watching CNBC. Nope, Apparently in her shrill whine of a voice, "WHERE IS THE ACCOUNTABILITY IN WASHINGTON.... DOESN'T EVERYONE KNOW

IT'S ALL BARNY FRANK'S FAULT. " Her Shrillness Cackles.

Apparently, according to maria he is the most powerful man in Washington for the past 30 years, obviously all the fault falls on his shoulders.... RIGHT? ONE FUCKING PERSON CAUSED ALL OF THIS...

Where is the accountability... Ya, it went down the rabbit hole with your brain. As Yet another CNBC moron plays the blame game. all of this coming from the people who brought you the "John McCain Rally" and other such NONSENSE.... NO SHE ISN"T PLAYING THE BLAME GAME TO KEEP THE HEAT OFF THE REAL SHILLS: REPUBLICANS, WALLSTREETERS, AND BANKERS!

What the hell is wrong with these people. Oh! I forget, they are day in day out brainwashed by the Moronic Wall street bullshit.

Healthcare stocks LOVE the Healthcare bill.

Healthcare stocks Love that the bill has failed.

Intelectuall continuity has never been their strong point, I mean... Yesterdays MEME... Well it was So yesterday!. It's what you get for having a longer memory than a Mosquito.

Ok

Well, I'm going to be curious if we can sell it this morning, Futures are kind of flat, I have no idea what the Morning Buzz is. Of course jobless claims are coming out, I'm hoping they are slightly positive, so that I can get a bounce and see if this bitch will sell.

What the hell it's only a commission.

My rant

I had the shit bored out of me, all day with the news; Democrats should make the message clear, Health Care is done, Democrats should push harder on Universal Health Care.

I said it in the beginning, The democrats should have set the republicans up to Kill Health Care, So that in the next 20 years as it blows up, They could turn and say "We tried... But the republicans don't want it. They think all the costs are malpractice, Since obviously they don't believe anybody but the richest deserve their day in court."

The Democrats Jousted at the windmill and they lost, Fucking Surprise. Now everyone wants to throw good money after bad. Of course there is no reason not to take it to a few days of filibuster, 48 hours of chip dip recipes on the senate floor, make the republicans dig in.

It's a loser, Well we tried to live up to the legacy of Ted Kennedy, but even his state didn't want the rest of country to have health care, What can we do

There is just a point where you have lost, GIVE IT UP! Sure, other things are possible, but move on. Sure maybe if they do this, or try that, then maybe something. You just have to know when to give up.

There is a political Axiom, By Thomas Pain "Lead Follow or get out of the way", Don't bullshit me and say that there is Leadership, It's not there, Accept it. There is another Axiom of the Revolutionary who wonders where the crowd is going, so that he can Lead them. Without leadership, all you have are Drunken Mobs.

Half the democratic, so called leadership are quaking in their boots, they want to do nothing and just hope that the November election turns out ok. This is most probably what they will do. The last thing they are going to do, is cut the Necks of the Insurance and banking Lobby. I guess it's obvious with my trading back ground, that the thing they NEED TO DO, is the LAST FUCKING THING THEY WILL DO.

Even Obama talks like a pussy about the "Banking Lobby", like he is powerless to stop it.

Of course in this vacuum of leadership, its the perfect petri dish for some new leadership to form. I just guess we will have to wait for it to show up.

BLA BLA BLA BLA

Ah... Life!

I worked my ass off on MLK day, It was such a nice day. I also read about 3 chapters from "A Movable Feast". It reminded me of how nice my life used to be. I also had some nightmares about dealing with Clients, Being in business is great if it wasn't for clients.

Day 4 No CNBC, except middle of the night to check futures.

It's nice that I can catch the bottom of the Vix, and Bottom of the Treasuries, and the market wants to be range bound.

I was in full mock today with us being down 100 Points and Doug Kass saying "Tis time It's really the top". I have some muddling shorts, but again don't see any reason to add unless Either we get something technical or I can get something sentiment wise. But it would just make me giggle if the market jumps tomorrow. Seems obvious to me, that the traders will go long at the open and try and push it back to the top of the range. We will see if it works, or fails on them. Obviously the money is in the failure.

I will say that at the end of the day Doug was talking about "maybe the market can stabilize", sounds bullish for doug.

Way Too Much Time.

After a weekend of reading "Senate Race is a Market Game Changer!"

And Cramer Doug Kass, CNBC, and my local paper Telling me that the market was UP on the Senate Race.

So, Today it's "SELL THE NEWS"

GIVE ME A BREAK!!!

Every day I wonder, is what I'm hearing today the dumbest thing I've heard this week, Month or year?

This one defiantly, ranks high on that list.

Random Thoughts

I'm not sure why I type this stuff out.

It's clear to me, that the Democrats don't know what they are doing.

I suspect, that it will get worse before it gets better.

May we live in interesting times.

bla bla bla...

I expected it, a decade trapped between stimulus spending and Libritarian deficit hawks.

Don't get me wrong, I'm all about a 6% 5 year.

I still have my projects and the Australian open... and if that fails I'm reading "A movable Feast".

So much for the Brian Shannon/Alpha trends "double top". What is heartening, is when the market does what is expected, Confound them.

I'm on Day 3 of No CNBC, Thank god to all the imbeciles on Squawk Box. Remember, Everyone on CNBC is twice as stupid as you think. We can make fun of newsletter Writers... But the real joke is the Pseudo Reporters.

Australian Open

Tony has been through this before, For the next 2 weeks my affection will be drawn to the Australian Open. I was Lamenting last night how much I'd rather read some Hemmingway and watch the Australian Open for 2 weeks.

The question this morning is if we will get a nice little bounce to short, or if it just rolls over. Still the chance that we get manic monday...

Pay for content

I saw a story about the New York Times talking about pay for content. I've been reflecting on this, and there was a story about historic Media models, I think it was on Bill Moyers.

If you assume that most/All Media is propaganda. The questing then is; "Why should you pay for Propaganda?". Even in the most liberal or conservative media, there is plenty of information, both sides don't want people to hear, even if you pay for content, you still aren't going to get it.

Outlook

In general I don't know what to say.

Sentiment is not optimistic, for simply being 130 pts off the high, it just changes so quickly. Using the actual indicators, the AAII etc... we are out of control, and yet we get the most minor pullback and everyone is calling top.

It just makes me cautious. It feels like bullshit hedging. As I go through my indicators, I just see top call after top call.

I guess it is possible with so many extremes a resulting high level of rain dancing would be expected.

Bill Moyers

both Pieces were good this weekend.

• One on Thomas Frank: THE WRECKING CREW: HOW conservatives RUINED GOVERNMENT, ENRICHED THEMSELVES, AND BEGGARED THE NATION.
• Greg Mortenson, whose best-selling books THREE CUPS OF TEA and STONES INTO SCHOOLS

I'm not going to place the video Inline but they were both great(this is the link to them).

Greg Mortenson is the author of books about Afghanistan, he went there when climbing and a small village helped him, he promised to return and build a school (I haven't read it, so if I'm off with my summary, please forgive). The point is a good one in this age, Much of it is about Sustainability.

I'm not sure if I've said it, but after we give all this aid to the Red Cross for Haiti we then we will need to help rebuild their infrastructure. There is more to this than sending them some water and a few dozen sandwiches.

They will need to have a decent water system, New power grid, rebuild homes, hospitals, and most important schools. The path out of poverty is education. I have no idea what they pass off as an economy.

America spends way way way too much on health care.

From this story.

. Or consider this: If we spent what Canada spends per person, our deficit problem would go away entirely. And Canada's per-person average is in a country where everybody is fully covered and so has full access to care. America's is in a country with 47 million uninsured, and so many people skimp on needed care. So the comparison is actually unfair to Canada.

Haiti

On Friday I was joking with Tony. I was listening to MSNBC, and Doctor Nancy was saying that they needed Trauma Surgeons. I realized that the reason that they were needed was to cut off trapped limbs and free people. People who probably wouldn't survive because there are no facilities to give post operative Care. Few antibiotics, No blood.... etc

So, I was joking with him about how he was headed down there(since he is not a trauma surgeon). I have some Search and Rescue skills, and I know it's hard to not try to run down there, And then the futile feeling of Texting or donating money, and the powerless feeling of it.

When I joked about it, the nice thing ,was that there was that feeling that he had to justify, Not going down, even though it was obvious.

That is the great thing, that we feel like we should be down there, digging through the rocks. No matter how useless we would be, the idea that we all should be pitching in and giving a hand.

It's a hopeful sign of humanity.

then juxtapose that with the weekly wall street nonsense, and the Banker testimony.

Good old Rush "Meals on Wheels"

From here.

Rush Limbaugh-"The U.S. military is now Meals on Wheels. It always is with Democrat presidents.''

Meals on wheels indeed.

Indeed.

Some Hedging

Not about the market

I'm not sure, T has been giving me Vagueness on this Hedge fund trader show Saturday 11am Central. It's possible that she is not on this weekend.

They will have a podcast, and you can get it live. Streaming

I suspect that she may not be telling me, because I keep saying, I'm going to call in.

Obama to Massachusetts

Thank god! Whoever this woman is who is running in Massachusetts, who walked in, feeling entitled to the senate. Strangely voters didn't like it, and the TeaBaggers are energized, and the democrats are exhausted and ready to let heathcare fail.

Everyone knows that there is a huge giveaway to the insurance companies, who only advertise when there is a public option. and stop when the option is gone. I'm no Genius, but I suspect that that means that the insurance companies love the package as long as there is no public option.

Obama was scared to go up there. 'Well what if we Fail' and i'll be seen as a paper tiger. Well President Obama, if you go up there and work with them to get out the vote. I hate to tell you this but you WILL BE A PAPER TIGER!... and it is time for come to Jesus before November 2010 and 2012. It's probably better to find it out NOW than later!. Losing now, would be a saving grace for the following elections.

If she does lose, and you Jam the Healthcare legislation through, before the Republican takes office. Then you will look even worse.

And if these things happen... GUESS WHAT! YOU ARE FUCKING UP!

1120

The overall target, again is 1120. The problem is that with the vix at 18 the market can only move about 18 points on the spx without being Tragically oversold.

The second problem is that we have the manic Monday or Mutual Fund monday MEME (or Tuesday in this case)

well now

seems like you have to think that it is time to turn out the lights the show is over.

The top we are all ready for

Tony and I spoke in PtP Email. My comments on the DSI(tm), my sentiment indicator. I have many people ready for a top right here. There is always the chance that the top callers will be right.

When I look at the Pure Technicals, we seem ready for one. I talked about a Mid Month Top in Jan last month.

but I liked the idea of a Top last Monday, or I could buy one yesterday(I know I wasn't ready for one). I wouldn't be surprised if the market sells off this morning then snaps back... if you want a prediction.

All I'm saying is "They are Ready for it", But it is still possible.

America: The book Sarah Palin didn't read.

This was funny, from hardball last night.

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

The inside Skinny

Teresa may not be telling you! But the Legionary Trader Teresa Lo will be on This guy's Radio show on Saturday, I believe.

Put it on your calendar!

so..

obviously my top tick didn't quite work out. Seems like we are very near, they are trying to rotate into them, I'm just not seeing it happen.

Well, i'm grinding it out this week, I'm actually happy, I haven't traded since Tuesday, ok I scalped a little something today but...

I'm really trying to work while ... trading and it's a bitch.

Bank Tax

This is why you tax all the big banks. The reason they are massively profitable is because the spread from the short end to the long end of the curve.

The fed is responsible for that, that is why we have such a Search for Yield, and it's also why we risk inflation(sure I don't believe in inflation, at this point but....)

To put it all out on the Table; They fucked everyone with these shitty mortgages, took out insurance on them, from a company that the government had to bail out. It's just a way to get the money back from their Looting of AIG.

Taxpayer to AIG

AIG to the Banks

Banks to the Taxpayer.

tlt

The Idiot Channel, says it's a conspiracy, I think it's technical. That looks like a consolidation

SmackDown

Obama just rolled out his dick!

"if the bankers can pay big bonuses, they can pay back every dime of taxpayer losses."

HuuuhhRaaaaaa!!

Ron Insana is on MSNBC, "oh! the populist rhetoric... bla bla bla"

he doesn't realize that obama is going to tax the banks for the AIG and GM losses

the case

The bull case, will require some consolidation. There isn't enough short interest to get a moon shot going.

Hate Mail from Joe.

I got a snide email back from Kiernan, after I mentioned how much better Elizabeth Warren was on Morning Joe.

How can I blame him for a snide email... I write so many myself.

The morning republican spin

Direct from Pat Buchanan;

"Not only will the administration do something about Haiti, but they will make sure that they are seen doing something, so they will take every opportunity to toot their own horn."

Morning Joe has been good, Elizabeth Warren just came on and said "The bank CEO's are lying! of course they knew the mortgages were going to go bad. They just didn't think they were going to get caught."

This is what we are looking at.

Seems easy enough to play.

I have almost no chance of watching CNBC today, Kernan just started and no mention about Haiti, we are stuck in some story about some BS possible takeover. This is a great example of how isolated we get, watching CNBC.

Looks like most the damage is centered around Pourt Au Prince. The rest of the world is caught up in a real story, and cnbc is going to whine about some bullshit lie Goldman is trying to pass off.

Hatefull Troll

I woke up on the wrong side of the bed this morning, That and watching the market try and make a liar out of me... Well not so much Liar but wrong.

Must stay away from twitter, too easy to troll Idjets.

So here is the leadership. Since I feel Guilty

XLV

XBI

XLP

Here is the XRT , just to look at the cyclicals, which based on rotation would be next to fall. One could add tech to that.

Then we are looking at previous leadership, and some of the laggards

SMH

IYR

XLU

XLK

What is interesting about all of this is that it's not the "Back end" the materials getting the bounce.

so..

I still hold with my overall target of 1120 for a downleg.

and still, this is exhaustion, but I did say some sideways motion wouldn't surprise me.

stock by stock sector by sector

Cramer is so stupid

CNBC is just painful.

cramer "there is no better way to get re-elected that to stick it to the bankers." re: hearings today. I hate to point it out to the the braintrust, but that committee is not ELECTED. That is an appointed commission, of non legislators.

but whatever blows his wad.

here is why I've stopped posting trades, The problem was I have to sit and talk about the market all fucking day. I also don't remember what I've said.

We talked about the 1130 point and then what you needed was an upswing and to keep it simple the upswing needs to fail to make a new high.

Bla Bla Bla Resistance support at xyz level, because it could be a false breakout and you have a bunch of people with their fingers crossed "Oh Please pay! oh Please".... the market could fail, or stall... or run.. and it could sit here until tomorrow's bell.

but Keep it simple.. upswing, and you want to see it resolve. Which doesn't mean that even more of the market hasn't topped, and we are just waiting for rotations out over the next few days.

side note:

and the massive amount of people feeding their ego, by deciding what a great humanitarian the;y are by Twittering and re Twittering the magic text number to donate $10 to haiti...

get on a plane and do something.. sitting on your piehole Texting and Twittering, is the same thing you did yesterday, not some great humanitarian effort.

More posting

I guess I have to post this morning, For some reason I woke up to hell, which was Joe Kiernan barking in my head about China.

I can only think about my Omlette this morning, Onion and cheese, and some of my weak ass new coffee, and by weak I mean strong to anyone who doesn't desire his coffee to be able to be so corosive to eat a spoon.

We hit the 1130 level, which tony and I agreed was some kind of MARKET Support (I imagine tony will get my little joke).

My DSI(tm) indicator is still fairly positive, we have quite a few bottom calls, and there was even one blog that I love to fade, and it had about 5 rationalizations why the market wasn't going to sell off, and a bottom call. Not a person Calling top yet... Except Doug Kass.

Is it fair...

that the banks pay for the bailout for the automakers...

Is if fair that the taxpayer pay for the bailout of all the asshats who had to get bailed out?

I always want to smack people who ask "Is it Fair?" they always tend to be people who for some reason want to not 'pay their due' or

As I point out my favorite misunderstood word... be 'RESPONSIBLE'. Which I point out is a different word than 'Blame'

Kass: Waiting for a Correction

Yesterday, the following clouds gathered:

doug is firmly back in the bear camp.

Doug Kass

Lookin' For a Correction in a Market on Steroids
When things look too good to be true (read: the markets persistently rise), they usually are.
Keep New: Posted on: Tue, Jan 12 2010 6:02 AM

Not fooled for long.

Targets

I'm still sticking with my sort of sideways suggestion here.

But Tony asked about targets, you can see the sort of wedge and the 20D-EMA is at the sort of 1120-1125 level. which is 5 points off the morning low or so. there are also 2 resistance levels below that.

Of course here I am counting chickens before they have hatched but that seems like a logical first target. for the swing.

Morning

Well, I guess I have to post something.

My top tick seems to be holding, so far.

No matter what you have to look at it sector by sector, Tops are made stock by stock, sector by sector.

Overall I will not be surprised if we move sideways for a few days.

It will be interesting to look at the rotation after this session. I also have to say that we are down 6-7 spx which is fairly extreme, if I were day trading, I'd bet on a bounce.

Com'on Mother market

http://www.thestreet.com/story/10659103/1/kass-no-honey-for-the-bears.html?cm_ven=GOOGLEN

don't make a liar out of me, but .... if the action shows me wrong... I'm wrong.

but like I said, and the above shows

PERFECT BULLISH SENTIMENT!

Well now...

I can't stand CNBC... after forcing myself to watch last Thursday, I guess my tolerance for it has gone down. When it's not annoying, it's boring.

Seems like joe is very excited. It feels crazy to sell it some time this morning, but again it's a rotation, they are running into gold and oil again, weak dollar meme. It will be interesting to see it trade.

God Damn Tony

.... Son of a BITCH! I had Perfect "Top that nobody is ready for", with my sentiment indicator(DSI(tm)) reading Perfect 0/32 all Bulls.

Until that god damn Tony FUCKED IT UP.

Ben Feller

I'm getting like Chomsky, but We all know how I love to parse language.

I'm sure I've ranted about how I think most people think, and were poorly taught by their elementary teachers, that "Synonym" means similar, and not SAME. TOO MANY PEOPLE THINK YOU CAN JUST USE SYNONYMS INTERCHANGEABLY(of course these same people don't have the foggiest idea what interchangeably means.).

I'm reading the paper today, and since it's Sunday it gets a good reading, what is strange is that I can read the Sunday paper in like 30 minutes... but being pissed off about it takes HOURS!... but I digress ;)

So here is the story by Ben Feller of the A.P.

Since the Morons at the AP don't like their stories quoted, I won't do anything but paraphrase. The gist of it is that the president says, "The buck stops here.", but still blames bush.

So, how do you become a journalist, and not understand the difference between responsibility and blame. THEY ARE TOTALLY DIFFERENT FUCKING WORDS... HOW CAN YOU BE THIS STUPID? Beyond that, this is just a Bullshit opinion piece. If anyone ever wonders how Journalism died... this could be a footnote.

Of course he steps on an open nerve, about responsibility and how it is just a sign of the times that this is probably the most misunderstood word in the English language.

John Edwards Love Triangle.

Elizabeth and the egomonster

From the new book: Game Change

it's a long read, but it was fun...

“I think I can help you guys,” she said, and handed him her business card. The inscription read, BEING IS FREE: RIELLE HUNTER—TRUTH SEEKER.

Read more: An Excerpt From John Heilemann and Mark Halperin's 'Game Change: Obama and the Clintons, McCain and Palin, and the Race of a Lifetime' -- New York Magazine http://nymag.com/news/politics/63045/#ixzz0cDaBB0cz

Well they dumped the meta data off on me... I guess New York Mag, knows best how it formats on my blog, I am not responsible for how the above text looks... It's all New York Magazine... I'm just the dope writing this blog... I am too stupid to give you a Teaser in the proper format, or the proper size. Thank God for Copying Meta Data to the clipboard. I hope it works for them.. cause I don't give a shit.

Further review

Since all I have is, the possibility of looking like a fool. I think we are there. I've read all the weekend stuff so far, and everyone refuses to call top.. all the numbers are there. they just won't do it.

Now... I'm not saying it was Friday, but +/- a few days, sentiment wise we are there IMHO.

How big a correction etc.... I don't know.

so Place your bets place your bets....

MEME's

These are the Greatest things in the market; someone should track these MEME's... As long as Employment doesn't improve, Bonds will not sell off, Interest Rates will not go up, Therefore Market can go to the moon, Because the economy can recover, as long as nobody has a job.

Some stuff

Sentiment the "DSM(tm)", I have Green for a Reversal, on numerous levels.

Technically, sectors have started to roll over... Targets hit. Leadership starting to crack.

Certainly "Stock by stock" Sector by sector. I hope to do my own accounting of sectors and leadership.

I suggested that we were in that "Void", That period where our eyes fill with Blood, and we just can't quite figure out what the hell is going on. Which is the "We have all Lost it", and are within 5 days of the reversal.

Looking around, I see quite a few people talking "Going to the moon" and bull market... never pull back, the same people calling the reversal last weekend.

I mean, Stock by stock, and sector by sector, but what is odd is this usually ends on a "Weak Dollar MEME", which would suggest that the dollar will collapse until the actual reversal. But I'm not sure that that will happen this time. Seems like we are in a "Wave B" of a correction in gold and the dollar, and I suspect that the B wave is over. and it's ready for wave C. I'm not "Sure", but it feels right.

looks like

a developing head and shoulders here.

Optimistic

I assumed "They new something"... I know that that is the antithesis of everything I actually believe in in the market.

Santelli yesterday was talking about doing an informal poll of the NFP expectations, and it was +300K to -300K. I don't know if it's true... but regardless of it being true or if santelli was being crazy.... IT's FUCKING CRAZY!

If we sell off, remember... there is still Mutual fund Monday.

but I do believe we have had our Orgasm in sentiment, in hind site I think we can call it.

Cramer was huffing and puffing up a storm... and that felt like the money.

targets

I just went through sectors. most of them... Like this chart are within spitting distance of their consolidation targets.

I do have a couple sectors, that have some UNREAL targets, Like 30% moves, and I don't buy it. I also have one hell of a downside target out of bonds, which I also don't buy.

MOST of the sectors seem exhausted. But definatly they could hit some slightly higher targets on friday or monday... which are good pivot points based on time.

Our next, time based pivot points are next Friday and Monday, followed by the next Friday and monday. If you don't realize almost every Friday and Monday are good pivot times.

fuck

Because i'm the uber contrary indicator, I figured since I saw a target on the xlf and the iyr seemd like a test of previous levels.

people(including me) are afraid of being short into the morning.... it might be the thing to do.

xlf and outlook

We seem super excited in front of the NFP. but seems like if you are looking to the short side, there is no reason to play in front of it.

That being said, we have hit my xlf target. The question is, if the xlf goes in for the test of top. we have had declining volume. With the breakout of the early November level. we should see improved volume today, but will have to wait until the end of the day.

So, I'mm not sure about a turn in the Medium term, or how that will play into the long term.

I've been filled with CNBC all day, I'm not sure if I can keep it on. They just predicted the end of the obama economic team because of Orszag's love child.

Tough stuff, But like I keep saying... if there are a long series of downbars, I think you can wait for the first.

charts

It doesn't actually help you if I said we want to retest and probably go through the 60-20.
I umn could try and make the case for a 3 push on the daily here but it's a nice looking Elliot wave.

so, as a swing... what is the target? of a possible developing downswing...

Yep.. .good question.

ok,

Looks like I'm forced to watch CNBC today...

wow!

I think, that I can make a case for a top nobody sees coming. I kind of wish I had the energy to watch the last few days of fast money, I'd be curious where they are.

AssHatery

I'm working on some coding projects, fun fun fun...

I'm actually very amused by data point after data point of asshatery out there.

New Indicator

One of the sentiment indicators, I track. is when the people on the losing side of the trade, The Bears of late. Pull out the PPT, and the Black Helocopters.

Here is something from Zero Hedge.

MarketWatch Calls out fed for manipulating Index Futures

It's just your usual PPT post, about market manipulation.

I also want to point out the Zero Hedge, is stupid. Since Fight Club is about Dischordia, and You are Fucking High as SHIT! if you think that anyone actively involved in the stock market. I'm a little "Off the Range" here, because I absolutely take issue with the Wikipedia entry on Dischordia, In fact... in a twist of Un-Irony, That the Wiki-Entry on Dischordia, is in fact the Antithisis of Dischordia, IS THE PERFECT EXAMPLE OF DISCHORDIA!

On the downside trend in the market, it's the same thing as when the Bulls start talking about Naked shorting... Bla bla bla "When is the SEC going to do something about this"

So, overall, I think there is some exhaustion in front of the NFP, all the money that is going to be put to work in front of the number has been put to work.

Then the number will come out, and we will see.

I have an upside target of 1145 for gold

xlf

I was talking this week about the xlf. This isn't impressive, weak buying. Now we have some covering, and enough energy for some people to put the wood to some shorts. I do have a target there. which is a "Test of top".. but this suggests that it still has some more Green Bars in it.

stuff

Tony is trying to give me the verbal Ques for some kind of top. We are developing some short term exhaustion. I'd still be cautious about long term or medium term exhaustion.

The SPX

I told Tony, that those that were calling bottom, decided to equivocate. Many expectations are for a few more days of run.

When I look at this technically, I sort of have to agree. Looking at the move since 12/09, seems like a bit of an Elliot wave. That is something to watch.

I have 2 targets, which are shown with arrows. I don't see an exhaustion pattern yet. Again, I will say that this market is defiantly ready to blow it's Wad.

And in a Fit of Hubris, on my TV good old Joe Kernen has Marginalized, any economic weakness and any such voodoo as "Climate Change"... and he is the smartest guy he knows.... so obviously. 1400 spx.

lets also point out that expectations for the NFP are for a Positive number(that is my sentiment Read), I actually just looked it up and consensus is -50,000 to 40,000. Which is a big Zero averaged, according to the Screen. I'd be curious to see the data, because that is actually -5,000 for the middle of the range.

Overall, I don't know what to say or predict, I'll try and look at sectors today, but the market running which was up in the materials sector... well, I'd say is long in the tooth in it's rotation. Which, again doesn't mean it can't go on for another 4 weeks.

interesting thigns today

I didn't exactly see a good sell today.

what was intersting was some retail and Real Estated Rolling over, while the xlf tried to run.

It will be interesting to watch the xlf over the next few days.

Based on the sentiment charts, we could have an intermediate high anytime in the next 4 weeks.

The things they were chasing today were Oil and materials again...

so as we have an intermediate top, we need to start developing divergences. With the XLF not making new 52 week highs, that is what is interesting. If it's developing some kind of descending for a significant move down... It's interesting.

Morning

Manic Mutual fund monday. It's just a MEME, I want to point out that after an initial market run on Manic Monday, the market tends to Tail off at the end of the day.

Futures have regained all the significant loss that happened on Friday.

January effect, I know the MEME is "as goes the first 5 days, so goes the rest of the year. What I want to talk about is the Sell in 2009 for tax reasons, your losers. I'm a little curious what Losers anyone has from 2009.

Then that fresh money gets put back to work in the first of the year.

I've been chewing on this concept for a few days, and I'm not sure I see any trading advantage. Seemed like there was some selling of the winners into the end of the year. I'm just not sure I can suggest any trade on "January Effect"

Happy Palindrome Day

Todays date is 01/02/2010 or 01022010

New blog

I found a new blog.
Amateur Scientist, which is just complaints about all things anti-science.

Oh... Look

The perfect Shoe, for every David Tennant Doctor Who Fan.

Damn...

I should work harder on this blog. I could actually get readers. The biggest problem is; then I'd have readers.

The discussion Tony and I have been having has to do with the swing. Both of us are in agreement that there is a Swing here. Of course, if you can't see that in the market action over the past few days. You are Blind.

The discussion is, if it's an Intermediate high.

My biggest problem is, that this has been the most Wildly called top/swing ever. Tony asked who has been talking about it. Ritholtz is hinting at it, Cobra wasn't fooled, Some of the EWT counters are on it, there are 4 other random Blogs I've seen, on it. Kotick did a whole CNBC segment on it.

If it were 2 or 3 of them, I could say they are Outliers. Sure a few of them are saying it based on Thursday market action. I'd also mention that it's also exactly what happened last year. Emotional Memory, Recency bias... Etc...

But I also could say, that the same thing could have been said last year. Also, we can make the argument that in the land of Impossible pricing models, Blind following the blind, is a legitimate Strategy

My conclusion is this; these signs warrant Caution, that is all I can say. Be on your Toes.