sort of a 3 push... bla bla bla about that....
I do want to say, that the sentiment observations today, were solid, and not the sort of marginal sentiment we have had for the past few weeks.
Tons of optimism out there.
I do want to talk about the psychology of the price action.
- After the past 3 days you would have to be Fucking nuts to hold shorts into the close... Or would you?
- That Mutual fund monday meme... seems like there should be some people anticipating that too. It would be interesting if it went sour on them.
- I also suggested, that if we have a series of down bars.. there is no reason to chase this first one.
4 comments:
The mutual fund Monday meme may be why there was an uptrend this afternoon-- all the shorts covering.
The bulls got crushed this morning: all going half chub after the NFP and then getting clubbed like baby seals.
The first time in a while I played it perfectly.
The Wed AM squeeze that you sold (when T.Lo's conference was on) was the first of three days in a row where the retailers bought in the morning and the adults sold in the afternoon.
Next week will be interesting. Gartman said yesterday that there will be day when gold is down $25 and that may be the time to get out. Hmmm....
Dollar strength has broken our hearts before, but the interest rate meme will gather steam with jobs coming back.
The question is about "Greatest" fool money.
That is the psychology, everybody expecting another spike to sell.. but rule of 3's. We know Something will Change.
But it's a Learning game right. So the Bears knew better than to hold overnight, but the bulls will know better than to get Crushed in the morning.
But you can't exclude some new "kitchen table" money, Some Last bit of new liquidity coming in on monday. Some of that might even be Mutual fund money, but from the stats I hear, that money seems to be gone, mostly.
I think it's improved your trading to start thinking in Targets, instead of extrapolating it to infinity.
did you see that we got a new volatility dot last Friday.. They could be Growing...
So maybe we get some positive futures and some buying on Monday, but it's short lived.
of course then everyone will jump in short... but...
Volatility cluster. The last dot saw a fairly dramatic move... it was up. I know that every dot does not mean something dramatic will happen, but...
Gun to my head, this cannot be good for bulls. If I were long, I'd be concerned... what would be the reason to put anything more at risk? The last two pushes up were denied in dramatic fashion.
The Wolfe Wave is a variation of the Vic 2b: test of top and pullback... same psychology in place and, yes, I like the target that the formation gives.
But they don't see it that way...
they just see the good news and deploy that last 10% of their cash.
As TK would say... "have the meetings, and decide what to buy on Monday"
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