Financial history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes. You can't be stupid enough to trade off anything I say.... I'm lucky they let me out of the straight-jacket long enough to trade.

J. P. Morgan

"Sell down to your sleeping point"

Friday, January 11, 2008

This shows the 2 day move (I expected a 300 point Correction, this 400 point correction doesn't surprise me, it being Relative to the down move) Third waves are the largest moves(impulse waves), Drawn is not a complete Elliot wave and it needs a 5th wave. BUT into the Close we hit 1428, which was significant resistance, and I took a short position. I expect to clear this off at the bell, and take my small win(30pts in the SPX isn't that small). Then Wait for things to develop. I expect to day trade quite a bit today, and Be Super Defensive, until I can see a clear pattern in the markets motion. I know it makes me a shill, but I may even go slightly long and be super defensive against the futures. ... My expectation is for a "Top" today.


This chart shows Retracement levels of the SPX, at 1470.... I will expect to be all short. Right now I'm 50% short. On the right side of this chart I show a typical Elliot wave...... What I do is try and catch the third waves, and be changing positions in the 5th waves.

This chart shows the third wave was from the morning into the close.... Understand, the third wave of this move can continue.... But... The futures are showing Wave 4 Correction of the uptrend...... Maybe the Down 120 futures Retrace 100% or 120% or 75%..... The down futures will probably Retrace... Meaning Go up after the Open...... Then the market action will determine the move... a move to 1402 violates the Uptrend... and it moves to neutral.... Which means, start shorting any strength..... But, we could be range bound for a week or 2 Between 1428 and 1390. The 76.4 Retrace shows a lot of weakness in this Bull move, Also the lack of a "Clear" wave, also shows it may Terminate Prematurely.

1 comment:

new comer said...

Today will be a volatile day again

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