Financial history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes. You can't be stupid enough to trade off anything I say.... I'm lucky they let me out of the straight-jacket long enough to trade.

J. P. Morgan

"Sell down to your sleeping point"

Tuesday, January 8, 2008

This is the long Term Scale, since the October highs.... Remember after this Multi week 3rd wave, we still have a 5th wave.... Point being we will hit a false Bottom in the 1340-50s(Based on Elliot waves)
(not lost on my analysis, is that the target is equal to the Friday close(Also worth noting is that, My math isn't precise, since I don't actually look up the specific quote, and guesstimate it from the chart(how is that for disclosure of my sketchy Chartatology.))
This is the short term, The RSI(which I don't picture,but shows it's very hard for us to go much lower in the NearTerm)... I'm looking for a good correction(upmove), But maybe we push lower, either intraday or into the close, but only like 10-20 points or 50-100dow, Maybe we confirm the new low. Maybe this wave will look more like an ABC correction, with a day or 2 uptick. Smart me would wait for a short covering rally to open a new position, maybe a bullish day, and an up futures next day.... Which starts plunging.
My overall Thesis is that we are in the Third Wave(daily) of the Third wave(weekly) of the Third wave(monthly), Meaning Maybe the RSI will hit it's greatest value in this move. Greater than 11-12-2007 Which was the end of the third wave of the November move.
For those of you looking at super cycles, in a 6month to 1 year time frame, this could be the third wave of the first wave in a multi year move. But if this move compleates itself I'd expect the next wave to occur next october-november, and we trade choppy betwixed now and then.... Maybe.

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