Some fun Elliot waves..... This seems a bit muddled to me.. Also possible wave 3 starts at 1456. The 50% mark would also show a ABC correction... I'm not a fan of the 2 wave corrections, but maybe that is why this is so muddled to me.
This just looks fast. Even faster than November.
*shrug*
Sunday, January 6, 2008
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4 comments:
It is fast. A bounce is due, and my guess is that a half point rate cut rumor will lift the market next week.
Any more bad news will just get the rumor milled cranked. You thoughts?
(BTW, I caught your link off TBP.)
:)
I expect a couple of those rumors, in the next few weeks. One of these days that rumor will wear thin... Bit of "the boy who called wolf"
We should be getting some earnings warnings and bank earnings(losses?) this week.
I only expect a small bounce.
But it wouldn't be the first time I was wrong :)
I was looking at your link to Brian's TA and found it interesting. Even his own analysis was calling for a market drop after Thursday's double bottom, yet he seemed strangely cautious about calling it a bottom with any conviction. A lost opportunity to short.
His analysis is good. He seemed to like a couple small caps and they do indeed look interesting from a technical standpoint. What do you think of ALTI, CPST and TXCO?
Have you traded individual stocks on Brian's analysis?
I'm not sure if this move isn't still worth shorting. I have done some modeling that indicates that the indexes may hit 1320 on the S&P. or 12200 on the Dow.
you know about the double short index ETFs? QID YWM SDS DXD.
Be Careful, Because what Brian Tries to do is "Unbiased" so he just presents ideas, and possibilities(but many of them are for Agressive Nimble Traders, who can switch their positions on a dime). Like the idea of a Turn at 1422, which sparked the drama.
Even I talked about that level as a possible Turn.(beforehand)
What Brian does is more honest than what I do, which is Biased, based on what I see are economic Fundamentals. (And biased by the fact I hate this economy, and have since 2000)
But I digress...
Alot of that is Knife Catching, and unless your looking for 2 or 3 day trades on the long side.
The Russel 2k and the Semiconductor indexes, both broke down below a double bottom on friday, so the "Underlying fundamentals" of the market are below the double bottom. and the other indexes should follow.
Aggressive me, would short any strength in this market, be it a short covering rally or a fed rumor. or just an intraday Bid.
Smarter me, would wait for a good short covering rally(or fed rumor) to start a new position.
Monday, is a perfect time for one of those rumors, since it will make it look like a possible double bottom.
Let me be clear that all I suspect is we are due for a corrective Wave, but that could happen in 30pts on the S&P... and then we move lower.
I'll try and build some new charts before the opening bell.
but no, I've never traded a stock he has suggested, and missed out on some great moves to the upside.
I've bet against what I perceived as moves Brian suggested, and had some winners. He Tries to do everything he can to just Trade on the Technicals Which is Great, Cause half my losses are because I'm a Biased Freak.
I try and watch his TA every day, But, I also stair at the charts for a few hours and make up my mind first, then watch, and see if he changes my mind. That way I'm not using anyone else as a bias, against my own instincts.
I guess my point is He is definitely worth your time to listen to... with Scepticism, as you should be sceptical of everyone.(even yourself)
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